2025年12月25日下午，由南都湾财社、全球青年跨境协会、出海网联合主办的"智造出海・跨境向新"湾 区跨境出海论坛&"海上之夜"私享会，在深圳蛇口希尔顿南海酒店正式启幕。 在主题分享环节，百亿级跨境公司（华凯易佰）TikTok操盘手小王子带来了《品牌出海：从0到1品牌如 何自制内容如何引爆营业额流量池》的分享。 采写：南都·湾财社记者 吴鸿森 在小王子看来，自制内容可以减少样品成本，进而节省达人的佣金支出。小王子同时指出，通过拆解爆 款短视频，可以明白产品适合哪些用户，并以此进行有针对性的脚本设计，促进GMV持续的增长。 小王子指出做好的自制内容有三方面内容：第一，拆解达人的爆款视频；第二，拆解竞对的爆款短视 频；第三，利用AI进行效率提升和解决场景问题。 小王子进一步表示，TikTok打一个新品，寄样品100—1000件是合理数字，1000件样品的成本大概2万美 元。面对成本问题，可以借鉴AI图片生成视频的软件，把视频的具体场景罗列清楚，用AI节省成本。 他同时指出，现在平台对AI短视频进行一定的限流，需要把AI和自有短视频进行结合。可以用AI生成 大概5秒钟的脚本，占比不要超过20%，避免查重和识别AI ...

Core Insights - The company experienced a 6% year-on-year decline in total revenue for H1 2025, with social entertainment revenue dropping by 43% [1] - Despite the revenue decline, the adjusted operating profit increased by 35% year-on-year, indicating strong cost control measures [1] Financial Overview - Total revenue for H1 2025 reached 3.83 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with social entertainment revenue significantly impacted [1] - The gross margin improved to 36.4%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to optimized music copyright costs [1] - Content service costs were 1.8 billion yuan, a 10% decrease year-on-year, accounting for 47% of total revenue, down 2 percentage points [1] - The total expense ratio decreased to 16.6%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by effective sales expense optimization [1] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 1.95 billion yuan, a 121% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted profit margin of 50.9% [1] Business Segments - The online music business saw a 16% increase in revenue, reaching 2.97 billion yuan, driven by a 15% growth in subscription revenue [2] - The paid user penetration rate in the online music sector reached 27%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong market positioning [2] - Social entertainment services and other business revenues fell to 860 million yuan, a 43% decline, as the company worked on improving the live streaming ecosystem [2] Investment Outlook - The company is focusing on young users and developing original content to create differentiation in the market [3] - The strategy to attract student members is expected to contribute to long-term growth, with a stable increase in monthly active users [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting adjusted profits of 3.05 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.05 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant upward revision [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company has experienced a 6% year-on-year decline in total revenue for H1 2025, with a significant drop of 43% in social entertainment revenue. However, the adjusted operating profit has increased by 35% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [1][8] - The online music subscription business has shown robust growth, with a 15% increase in subscription revenue driven by the growth in paid user numbers. The online music revenue reached 2.97 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, with a leading paid penetration rate of 27% [2][15] - The company is focusing on young users and developing original content to create differentiation, which is expected to support long-term growth. The number of independent musicians on the platform has exceeded 820,000, with approximately 4.8 million music tracks uploaded [3][20] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved to 36.4%, up 1.4 percentage points due to optimized music copyright costs. The content service cost was 1.8 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, accounting for 47% of revenue [1][8][9] - The total expense ratio for H1 2025 was 16.6%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to effective sales expense optimization [9] Commercialization - The online music subscription revenue reached 2.47 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase, driven by the growth in paid users. The company has enhanced its membership benefits to stimulate user willingness to pay for premium experiences [2][15] - Social entertainment services and other business revenues fell to 860 million yuan, a decline of 43% year-on-year, as the company is restructuring its live streaming ecosystem [19] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting adjusted profits of 3.05 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.05 billion yuan respectively, with an upward revision of 47% for 2025 [3][20] - The reasonable valuation range for the company's stock is set between 311.00 and 354.00 HKD, with a closing price of 280.00 HKD [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of long video platforms, highlighting the challenges of sustaining growth while managing losses in a competitive environment [1] - It emphasizes the strategic partnership between Migu and Mango TV, showcasing how Migu leverages Mango's content to enhance its market presence [10][11] - The article raises questions about Migu's ability to transition from a content aggregator to a content creator in the long video space [22] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The long video industry has shifted from a focus on rapid user growth through heavy spending to a more sustainable model, facing increased pressure as overall internet growth slows [1] - Migu's partnership with Mango TV has been pivotal, with Migu investing 1.6 billion in Mango Media to secure a foothold in the market [10] - The collaboration aims to create a differentiated content ecosystem, but Migu faces challenges in consistently delivering high-quality content compared to competitors [11][12] Group 2: Content Strategy - Migu has successfully launched popular series like "Jinxiu Fanghua," achieving over 1.5 million reservations, indicating a growing user interest [1][10] - The platform is transitioning to a more diverse content strategy, focusing on original productions alongside sports content to attract a broader audience [15][20] - Migu's recent initiatives include signing a "blockbuster co-creation plan" with Mango TV and Hunan TV, aiming to enhance its content offerings [15][20] Group 3: User Engagement and Growth - Migu has implemented targeted marketing strategies to enhance user engagement, such as leveraging sports events to promote new series [18][20] - The platform's user base is expected to grow as it effectively integrates sports and entertainment content, creating a seamless viewing experience [20] - Despite the positive trends, Migu must navigate the challenges posed by the rising popularity of short-form content, which is rapidly gaining traction among users [24]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the online music industry, specifically analyzing the competitive landscape and performance of leading companies Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Growth**: The online music market in China is projected to reach 20 billion RMB in 2024, with Tencent Music capturing over 15 billion RMB (26% growth YoY) and NetEase Cloud Music nearing 5 billion RMB (over 20% growth YoY) [3][6]. 2. **Competitive Landscape**: The market is characterized by a "one strong, one leading" structure, with Tencent Music holding 60-70% market share and NetEase Cloud Music 20-30%, indicating a stable competitive environment [3][6]. 3. **User Metrics**: As of the end of 2024, Tencent Music has a total MAU of 570 million and 120 million paying users (21% conversion rate), while NetEase Cloud Music has over 200 million MAU and 50-60 million paying users (over 25% conversion rate) [3][10]. 4. **Content Differentiation**: Tencent Music excels in K-pop licensing, while NetEase Cloud Music appeals to younger audiences with niche genres, highlighting the importance of content differentiation in competition [3][9]. 5. **Future Growth Potential**: The paid user rate in China's online music market is expected to reach 30-35%, translating to 250-300 million subscribers, indicating significant growth potential [3][12]. 6. **Profitability Forecast**: Tencent Music's adjusted profit is expected to reach 9 billion RMB in 2025 (17% growth), while NetEase Cloud Music's profit is projected at around 2 billion RMB, with both companies having room for valuation increases [3][23]. 7. **ARPU Trends**: Tencent Music's ARPU is 10.8 RMB, expected to rise to 11.8 RMB in 2025, driven by premium memberships. In contrast, NetEase Cloud Music's ARPU is below 7 RMB, necessitating strategic improvements to enhance revenue per user [13][20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Cost Optimization**: Both companies have improved their gross margins through copyright cost optimization and increased self-produced content, with Tencent Music's gross margin at 42% and NetEase Cloud Music at 34% [16][20]. 2. **Non-Subscription Revenue**: Non-subscription revenue is performing well, with NetEase Cloud Music's non-subscription business growing by 28% and Tencent Music by 25%, indicating a shift towards ad-supported models [22]. 3. **Valuation Outlook**: Tencent Music is expected to have a valuation of around 19 times earnings, while NetEase Cloud Music is projected at less than 15 times, reflecting their respective market positions and growth prospects [24][25]. 4. **Future Challenges**: Both companies face challenges in maintaining user engagement and monetization strategies, particularly in light of regulatory changes affecting social entertainment segments [21][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the online music industry's current state and future outlook.