2025 年 09 月 03 日 公司研究 | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 马川琪 S0350523050001 | | | macq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 ： | 丁婧欣 S0350124040002 | | | dingjx@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 音频中心化社交娱乐公司，2025H1 全面扭亏 ——Sound Group（SOGP.O）动态研究 最近一年走势 相对标普 500 表现 | | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SOGP | | 360.42% | 1595.35% | 1149.71% | | 标普 | 500 | -0.69% | 7.45% | 13.58% | | 市场数据 | 2025/09/02 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（美元） | 21.87 | | 52 周价格区间（美元） | 1.18-23.24 | | 总市值（百万美元） | 98.54 | | 流通市值（百万美元） | 73.26 | | 总 ...

Group 1 - The core content of the news highlights the framework agreement reached between China and the US during their first economic and trade consultation in London, which includes the restoration of rare earth supplies, tariff adjustments, and technology controls. The US will suspend the additional 24% tariffs imposed after April 2, retaining a 10% baseline tariff, while China will resume exports of civilian rare earths to the US, although military rare earth controls remain unchanged. The semiconductor sector, including H20 chips, will still face restrictions, and the agreement requires a 90-day buffer period to refine the terms [2][5]. - The market response indicates a short-term boost in market confidence, with US tech stocks like Tesla rising by 5% and A-share automotive supply chains, such as BYD, rebounding. However, the long-term technological competition remains unresolved [2]. - Seven automotive companies, including BYD, FAW, Dongfeng, and GAC, announced a unified compression of supplier payment terms to within 60 days to implement the "Regulations on Ensuring Payment to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises," alleviating financial pressure on small suppliers [2]. - The automotive parts sector, including companies like Meichen Technology and Xinrui Technology, saw stock price surges, with institutions believing this move could promote inventory reduction and improve profitability in the industry [2]. Group 2 - Policy highlights include support for Shenzhen to deepen low-altitude economic reforms (cross-border helicopter flights), explore cross-border applications of digital currency, and promote financial, technological, and data empowerment of the real economy [2]. - Related stocks in the low-altitude economy (Wanfeng Aowei) and digital currency (Chutianlong) concepts have gained attention [2]. Group 3 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Robotaxi fleet in China will reach 500,000 vehicles by 2030, significantly surpassing that of the US [4]. - Factors driving this trend include the unexpected progress in Robotaxi commercialization, a cooling of tensions between Musk and Trump, and the easing of US-China trade relations [3]. Group 4 - Tencent Music is set to acquire Himalaya for a total consideration of approximately 20.1 billion yuan, consisting of $1.26 billion in cash and a 5.2% equity stake, which will strengthen Tencent's position in the audio content ecosystem, although it must pass antitrust review [6]. Group 5 - The EIA forecasts that US crude oil production will decline to 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026, a decrease of 50,000 barrels from 2025, marking the first decline since 2021, which could impact Trump's "energy dominance" strategy [7]. Group 6 - Global GDP growth has been adjusted down from 2.7% to 2.3% for 2025, primarily due to trade frictions and policy uncertainties, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing downward revisions [8]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with an 85.5% probability of a rate cut in July [8]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is reported at 4.47%, while the 2-year yield is at 4.02%, with market focus on CPI data and tariff impacts [8]. - In China, over ten institutions, including China Merchants Fund, have suspended large-scale subscriptions to bond funds to mitigate liquidity risks [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported a solid growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue increasing by 8.7% year-on-year to 7.36 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising by 22.8% to 2.23 billion yuan [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 7.36 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [2] - Adjusted net profit increased by 22.8% to 2.23 billion yuan [2] - Online music service revenue grew by 15.9% to 5.8 billion yuan, with subscription revenue up by 16.6% to 4.22 billion yuan [2] Group 2: User Growth and Engagement - The number of paid users for online music reached 122.9 million, with ARPPU increasing to 11.4 yuan [2] - The growth in paid users was driven by exclusive high-quality content and benefits, particularly in the super membership segment [2] - Long audio content has become a significant driver for the conversion and retention of super members [2][6] Group 3: Long Audio Content Strategy - Tencent Music's long audio strategy, initiated in 2020, has led to substantial progress, with a rich ecosystem of long audio content [4] - Collaborations with popular IPs and top voice actors have resulted in successful audio dramas, such as "The Grave Robbers' Chronicles," which quickly surpassed 10 million plays [4][6] - The company has introduced AI-assisted tools to enhance the production efficiency of long audio content, exemplified by the launch of the AI audio drama "A Mortal's Journey to Immortality" [6][8] Group 4: Technological Innovation - Tencent Music leverages AIGC and other technologies to provide differentiated platform features and services for long audio enthusiasts [8] - The integration of long audio content with core online music services has enhanced user engagement and expanded the super member base [8]