文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 事项 10月广义财政收入同比-0.6%，9月同比3.2%；10月广义财政支出同比-19.1%，9月同比2.3%。 报告摘要 为何背离？我们分别观察地产相关税、卖地收入：一方面，地产相关税中， 和卖地收入关联度较弱的非交易 环节税增长，导致背离 ；另一方面， 卖地收入波动较大，或有其自身结构性因素，客观放大波动，我们提示 需理性看待 ， 试列举两点——一是 城投退平台，验证改革转型成果，客观放大波动；二是卖地高集中，强化 城市微观逻辑， 客观放大波动 （详见下文）。 （二）地产相关税的观察：和卖地收入关联度较弱的非交易环节税增长，导致背离 地产相关税，可以进一步分为交易环节税（土地增值税、契税）和非交易环节税（城镇土地使用税、耕地占 用税、房产税），其中，交易环节税和卖地收入直接相关 （土地增值税，对土地使用权转让的增值额征税； 契税，计税依据包含土地出让金）， 而非交易环节税和卖地收入关联度较弱 （城镇土地使用税，对持有土地 的行为按年征收，与一次性的卖地收入不直接相关；耕 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In October, general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a 3.2% increase in September[1] - The five real estate-related taxes remained nearly flat year-on-year at -1.4%, while land sales revenue dropped by 27.3%, marking the lowest monthly growth since August of the previous year[2] - Tax revenue growth was relatively high at 8.6%, leading to a negative growth rate in general fiscal revenue due to the significant decline in land sales revenue[2] Group 2: Real Estate Tax Observations - Non-transaction taxes (urban land use tax, arable land occupation tax, property tax) increased by 6.4% year-on-year, contributing to the divergence from land sales revenue[3] - Transaction-related taxes (land value-added tax, deed tax) fell by 16%, correlating with the 27.3% drop in land sales revenue[3] Group 3: Land Sales Revenue Analysis - City investment platforms contributed 30% to 40% of land sales revenue, but this was based on unsustainable practices[4] - The proportion of land acquired by city investment platforms is expected to drop from 33.4% in 2024 to 24.8% in 2023, returning to 2021 levels[4] - The concentration of land sales revenue among the top 10 cities reached 48%, significantly higher than previous years, indicating a structural shift in the market[5]