31 January 2026 | 11:57AM HKT Economics Research China: Fiscal revenue growth declined sharply in December while expenditure growth improved; updating our 2026 AFD forecast Bottom line: On-budget fiscal revenue growth declined sharply in December in year-on-year terms, mainly due to a high base, though in sequential terms, it also fell slightly. Tax and non-tax revenue growth both weakened significantly in December, while on-budget fiscal expenditure growth improved modestly. Property-related government rev ...

2026.01. 28 本文字数：757，阅读时长大约2分钟 山东预算报告一大看点是对今年的财政收入支出的预期。 根据山东预算报告，2026年全省一般公共预算收入预计安排8023亿元，比上年增长2%；全省一般公共预 算支出预计安排13450亿元，比上年增长2%。 这一收入增速低于当地经济增速预期。根据山东省今年政府工作报告，2026年当地GDP预计同比增长5%以 上。 这是山东省首次公开2025年全年财政收入，去年2%的收入增速略低于2024年（3.3%），也略低于2025年 初当地官方预期增速（3%）。不过，这一增速与全国地方一般公共预算收入平均增速相近。 山东省经济基础好，产业竞争力较强，财政收入规模近年来稳居全国第五位。从目前主要省份披露的2025 年财政收入数据来看，2025年山东一般公共预算收入规模将继续位居全国第五。 经济决定财政。山东财政实力强的背后是当地经济总量位居全国前列。根据山东省政府数据，2025年山东 生产总值（GDP）为103197亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.5%。山东成为全国第三个、北方地区第一 个过10万亿元省份。 财政取之于民、用之于民。民生依然是去年山东财政支出的大头。 ...

今年山东预计财政收入突破8000亿元。 经济大省山东亮出最新政府"账本"，当地财政运行情况总体良好。 1月28日，根据《大众日报》的报道，《关于山东省2025年预算执行情况与2026年预算草案的报告》 （下称"山东预算报告"）数据显示，2025年，山东全省一般公共预算收入7864.26亿元，比上年增长 2%。 这是山东省首次公开2025年全年财政收入，去年2%的收入增速略低于2024年（3.3%），也略低于2025 年初当地官方预期增速（3%）。不过，这一增速与全国地方一般公共预算收入平均增速相近。 山东省经济基础好，产业竞争力较强，财政收入规模近年来稳居全国第五位。从目前主要省份披露的 2025年财政收入数据来看，2025年山东一般公共预算收入规模将继续位居全国第五。 这一收入增速低于当地经济增速预期。根据山东省今年政府工作报告，2026年当地GDP预计同比增长 5%以上。 财政取之于民、用之于民。民生依然是去年山东财政支出的大头。 根据上述山东预算报告等数据，2025年山东省一般公共预算支出为13185.6亿元，比上年增长约0.8%。 其中，全省民生支出达到10491亿元，占一般公共预算支出的79.6%。 ...

本文字数：944，阅读时长大约2分钟 2026.01. 23 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 作为全国经济大省，广东的财政收入（即地方一般公共预算收入）继续遥遥领先。 近日广东省财政厅公开数据显示，2025年全省一般公共预算收入预计为1.39万亿元，同比增长3%。 总体来看，广东省财政收入增长平稳，符合预期：上述收入规模及增速跟2025年初当地官方的预期 基本一致；3%的收入增速，也与去年全国地方收入增速相近。 去年1.39万亿元的财政收入规模，也让广东省稳居全国之首，这已是广东连续第35年保持首位。 微信编辑 | 苏小 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com 经济决定财政。广东省财政收入规模的稳定增长，得益于当地产业基础好，创新能力强，经济实力稳 居全国之首。 根据广东省统计局数据，2025年前三季度，广东实现地区生产总值（GDP）超10万亿元，按不变价 格计算，同比增长4.1%。广东前三季度GDP位居全国31个省份之首 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In October, general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a 3.2% increase in September[1] - The five real estate-related taxes remained nearly flat year-on-year at -1.4%, while land sales revenue dropped by 27.3%, marking the lowest monthly growth since August of the previous year[2] - Tax revenue growth was relatively high at 8.6%, leading to a negative growth rate in general fiscal revenue due to the significant decline in land sales revenue[2] Group 2: Real Estate Tax Observations - Non-transaction taxes (urban land use tax, arable land occupation tax, property tax) increased by 6.4% year-on-year, contributing to the divergence from land sales revenue[3] - Transaction-related taxes (land value-added tax, deed tax) fell by 16%, correlating with the 27.3% drop in land sales revenue[3] Group 3: Land Sales Revenue Analysis - City investment platforms contributed 30% to 40% of land sales revenue, but this was based on unsustainable practices[4] - The proportion of land acquired by city investment platforms is expected to drop from 33.4% in 2024 to 24.8% in 2023, returning to 2021 levels[4] - The concentration of land sales revenue among the top 10 cities reached 48%, significantly higher than previous years, indicating a structural shift in the market[5]

Core Insights - The latest data from the Ministry of Finance indicates that from January to October, national fiscal revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the growth rate from January to September [1] - In October alone, national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, continuing the upward trend in monthly growth [1] - Tax revenue has been growing steadily, with total tax revenue from January to October amounting to 15.34 trillion yuan, a growth of 1.7%, which is an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous period [1] Fiscal Expenditure - Total national fiscal expenditure from January to October was 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - The government has implemented more proactive fiscal policies, increasing expenditure intensity and optimizing expenditure structure, with a focus on key areas [1] - Notable increases in specific expenditure categories include social security and employment (up 9.3%), science and technology (up 5.7%), and education (up 4.7%) [1] Debt and Financing - The government has accelerated the use of bond funds, with total expenditures from various types of bonds, including local government special bonds and central financial institution special bonds, amounting to 4.54 trillion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience and vitality of China's economy, supported by positive macroeconomic policies and improved fiscal revenue and expenditure performance in the first three quarters of the year [1][2]. - National general public budget revenue reached 163,876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, while tax revenue was 132,664 billion yuan, growing by 0.7%, and non-tax revenue was 31,212 billion yuan, declining by 0.4% [1][2]. - The fiscal revenue growth rate showed a recovery trend, with a notable increase in the third quarter, where July, August, and September saw growth rates of 2.6%, 2%, and 2.6% respectively, indicating a significant improvement [1][2]. Group 2 - The increase in fiscal revenue reflects a stable and improving economic operation, with the revenue structure showing a quality enhancement as tax revenue grew while non-tax revenue declined [2][3]. - Major tax categories showed positive growth, with domestic value-added tax reaching 52,271 billion yuan (up 3.6%), personal income tax at 11,799 billion yuan (up 9.7%), and stamp duty at 3,142 billion yuan (up 34.5%), indicating increased capital market activity [2][3]. - General public budget expenditure reached 208,064 billion yuan, growing by 3.1%, with central and local expenditures both maintaining growth, reflecting strong support for key areas such as livelihood and technology [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive trends in fiscal policy and revenue collection in China during the first three quarters of the year, indicating a stable and improving economic environment [1][2][3] Group 2 - In the first three quarters, the national general public budget revenue reached 16.39 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, with a notable increase of 2.5% in the third quarter [2] - Tax revenue, as the main component of fiscal income, grew by 0.7% year-on-year, with domestic value-added tax increasing by 3.6% and corporate income tax rising by 0.8% [2] - Local government revenue remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% in local general public budget revenue, and 27 out of 31 regions reported positive growth [3] Group 3 - National general public budget expenditure reached 20.81 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with significant growth in social security and employment (10%), education (5.4%), and science and technology (6.5%) [3] - Government bonds played a crucial role in implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, with expenditures from various types of bonds totaling 4.21 trillion yuan [4] Group 4 - The Ministry of Finance has established a rapid allocation mechanism for disaster relief funds, ensuring timely support for local governments in response to natural disasters [5] - A total of 350 billion yuan has been allocated for central disaster relief funds in 2025, with 105 billion yuan already disbursed to assist affected populations [6]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth this year [1] - General public budget expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Analysts attribute the positive revenue growth in July to the recent "anti-involution" actions that have improved corporate profitability, strengthened individual income tax management, and a recovering capital market [1] Revenue Analysis - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 20,273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the growth rate expanding nearly 3 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Tax revenue amounted to 18,018 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, accelerating by 4 percentage points compared to June [3] - Non-tax revenue was 2,255 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, with the decline rate widening by 9.2 percentage points from the previous month [3] Tax Revenue Breakdown - The increase in tax revenue in July is linked to price improvements, enhanced individual income tax management, and a rising stock market [5] - Major tax categories showed varied growth: corporate income tax revenue increased by 6.4%, individual income tax revenue surged by 13.9%, while value-added tax growth slowed to 4.3% [5][6] - The securities transaction stamp duty revenue saw a significant increase from 67.1% in June to 125.4% in July, reflecting a recovering stock market [6] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure in July was 19,466 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from June [6] - Expenditure in the social welfare sector showed robust growth, with education, culture, sports, and health spending increasing by 4.6%, 7.0%, 13.1%, and 14.2% respectively [7] - Infrastructure spending continued to weaken, with a combined decline of 3.8% in four major infrastructure categories, indicating a shift towards prioritizing social welfare over infrastructure [7] Broader Economic Context - From January to July, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 3.2%, a slowdown of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [8] - The government fund budget revenue in July was 3,682 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue declining by 7.2% [8] - Analysts suggest that the recent trends in real estate sales and investment continue to decline, impacting land-related tax revenues [8] Future Outlook - The recovery in broad fiscal revenue in July was primarily supported by high growth in stamp duty and stable land revenue, but sustainability remains uncertain [9] - There is a possibility of increased government bond issuance in the fourth quarter if budget revenue weakens and land revenue declines simultaneously [9] - The fiscal policy may need to adapt in the latter half of the year, potentially through special bond issuance and adjusting deficits to stabilize growth expectations [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025 from January to July, the general public budget revenue showed a nominal growth pressure, with the progress at 61.8%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years. The cumulative growth rate turned positive for the first time this year, mainly relying on the high growth of stamp duty and the recovery of value - added tax and enterprise income tax, but the sustainability of the improvement in the fiscal revenue structure needs further observation. Meanwhile, the CPI in July was flat year - on - year, maintaining low - inflation characteristics [3]. - The general public budget expenditure accelerated its expansion. The progress from January to July was 54.1%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years by 0.6 percentage points. The expansion was mainly reflected in areas such as debt interest payments, social security, and education expenditures. Although infrastructure - related expenditures declined, the overall broad - based fiscal expenditure remained in an expansion trend driven by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and special bonds [4]. - The government - funded budget revenue was in a contraction range, with the progress in the first half of 2025 at 37%, lower than the average of the past five years by 3.2 percentage points. From January to July, the national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. However, the decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed significantly compared with the same period last year. The expenditure progress in the first half of 2025 accelerated to 86.9%, much higher than the average of the past five years. From January to July, the national government - funded budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year - on - year, with the funds mainly invested in major project construction and the "two new" fields, providing strong support for the economy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs General Public Budget Revenue - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value: - 0.3%). Tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% (previous value: - 1.2%); non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% (previous value: 3.7%). Central revenue decreased by 2% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.8%), and local revenue increased by 1.8% year - on - year (previous value: 1.6%) [35]. - Main tax revenue items: domestic value - added tax was 4.2551 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3% (previous value: 2.8%); domestic consumption tax was 1.0213 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% (previous value: 1.7%); enterprise income tax was 3.0566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4% (previous value: - 1.9%); personal income tax was 0.9279 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% (previous value: 8%); import VAT and consumption tax decreased by 6.1% year - on - year (previous value: - 6.1%), and customs duties decreased by 6.5% year - on - year (previous value: - 7.7%); export tax rebates increased by 9.7% year - on - year (previous value: 11.6%); urban maintenance and construction tax increased by 2.7% year - on - year (previous value: 2.7%); vehicle purchase tax decreased by 18.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 19.1%); stamp duty increased by 20.7% year - on - year (previous value: 19.7%), among which securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% year - on - year (previous value: 54.1%); resource tax decreased by 1.6% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.4%); among land and real - estate - related taxes, deed tax decreased by 15% year - on - year (previous value: - 14.8%), property tax increased by 11.2% year - on - year (previous value: 12%), urban land use tax increased by 5.8% year - on - year (previous value: 5.8%), land value - added tax decreased by 17.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 17.6%), and arable land occupation tax increased by 3.1% year - on - year (previous value: 2.4%); environmental protection tax increased by 12.5% year - on - year (previous value: 16.4%); other tax revenues increased by 0.9% year - on - year (previous value: 0.7%) [36][42][43]. General Public Budget Expenditure - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 16.0737 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% (previous value: 3.4%). Central expenditure increased by 8.8% year - on - year (previous value: 9%), and local expenditure increased by 2.5% year - on - year (previous value: 2.6%) [46]. - Main expenditure items: education expenditure was 2.4438 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% (previous value: 5.9%); science and technology expenditure was 0.533 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% (previous value: 9.1%); culture, tourism, sports, and media expenditure was 0.2012 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% (previous value: 5%); social security and employment expenditure was 2.7621 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% (previous value: 9.2%); health expenditure was 1.2402 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% (previous value: 4.3%); energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure was 0.2949 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% (previous value: 5.9%); urban and rural community expenditure decreased by 3.5% year - on - year (previous value: - 4.2%); agricultural, forestry, and water expenditure decreased by 7.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 7.8%); transportation expenditure decreased by 3.3% year - on - year (previous value: 3.1%); debt interest payment was 0.7573 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% (previous value: 6.1%) [47][55][56]. Government - Funded Budget Revenue - From January to July 2025, the national government - funded budget revenue was 2.3124 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% (previous value: - 2.4%). Central revenue increased by 8.8% year - on - year (previous value: 4.8%), and local revenue decreased by 1.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.2%). The state - owned land use right transfer revenue was 1.695 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% (previous value: - 6.5%) [57]. Government - Funded Budget Expenditure - From January to July 2025, the national government - funded budget expenditure was 5.4287 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% (previous value: 30%). Central expenditure increased by 4.5 times year - on - year (previous value: 6.2 times), and local expenditure increased by 18.1% year - on - year (previous value: 15.1%). The expenditure related to state - owned land use right transfer revenue was 2.3572 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1% (previous value: - 6.4%) [58][59].