Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth this year [1] - General public budget expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Analysts attribute the positive revenue growth in July to the recent "anti-involution" actions that have improved corporate profitability, strengthened individual income tax management, and a recovering capital market [1] Revenue Analysis - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 20,273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the growth rate expanding nearly 3 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Tax revenue amounted to 18,018 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, accelerating by 4 percentage points compared to June [3] - Non-tax revenue was 2,255 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, with the decline rate widening by 9.2 percentage points from the previous month [3] Tax Revenue Breakdown - The increase in tax revenue in July is linked to price improvements, enhanced individual income tax management, and a rising stock market [5] - Major tax categories showed varied growth: corporate income tax revenue increased by 6.4%, individual income tax revenue surged by 13.9%, while value-added tax growth slowed to 4.3% [5][6] - The securities transaction stamp duty revenue saw a significant increase from 67.1% in June to 125.4% in July, reflecting a recovering stock market [6] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure in July was 19,466 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from June [6] - Expenditure in the social welfare sector showed robust growth, with education, culture, sports, and health spending increasing by 4.6%, 7.0%, 13.1%, and 14.2% respectively [7] - Infrastructure spending continued to weaken, with a combined decline of 3.8% in four major infrastructure categories, indicating a shift towards prioritizing social welfare over infrastructure [7] Broader Economic Context - From January to July, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 3.2%, a slowdown of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [8] - The government fund budget revenue in July was 3,682 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue declining by 7.2% [8] - Analysts suggest that the recent trends in real estate sales and investment continue to decline, impacting land-related tax revenues [8] Future Outlook - The recovery in broad fiscal revenue in July was primarily supported by high growth in stamp duty and stable land revenue, but sustainability remains uncertain [9] - There is a possibility of increased government bond issuance in the fourth quarter if budget revenue weakens and land revenue declines simultaneously [9] - The fiscal policy may need to adapt in the latter half of the year, potentially through special bond issuance and adjusting deficits to stabilize growth expectations [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025 from January to July, the general public budget revenue showed a nominal growth pressure, with the progress at 61.8%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years. The cumulative growth rate turned positive for the first time this year, mainly relying on the high growth of stamp duty and the recovery of value - added tax and enterprise income tax, but the sustainability of the improvement in the fiscal revenue structure needs further observation. Meanwhile, the CPI in July was flat year - on - year, maintaining low - inflation characteristics [3]. - The general public budget expenditure accelerated its expansion. The progress from January to July was 54.1%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years by 0.6 percentage points. The expansion was mainly reflected in areas such as debt interest payments, social security, and education expenditures. Although infrastructure - related expenditures declined, the overall broad - based fiscal expenditure remained in an expansion trend driven by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and special bonds [4]. - The government - funded budget revenue was in a contraction range, with the progress in the first half of 2025 at 37%, lower than the average of the past five years by 3.2 percentage points. From January to July, the national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. However, the decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed significantly compared with the same period last year. The expenditure progress in the first half of 2025 accelerated to 86.9%, much higher than the average of the past five years. From January to July, the national government - funded budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year - on - year, with the funds mainly invested in major project construction and the "two new" fields, providing strong support for the economy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs General Public Budget Revenue - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value: - 0.3%). Tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% (previous value: - 1.2%); non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% (previous value: 3.7%). Central revenue decreased by 2% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.8%), and local revenue increased by 1.8% year - on - year (previous value: 1.6%) [35]. - Main tax revenue items: domestic value - added tax was 4.2551 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3% (previous value: 2.8%); domestic consumption tax was 1.0213 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% (previous value: 1.7%); enterprise income tax was 3.0566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4% (previous value: - 1.9%); personal income tax was 0.9279 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% (previous value: 8%); import VAT and consumption tax decreased by 6.1% year - on - year (previous value: - 6.1%), and customs duties decreased by 6.5% year - on - year (previous value: - 7.7%); export tax rebates increased by 9.7% year - on - year (previous value: 11.6%); urban maintenance and construction tax increased by 2.7% year - on - year (previous value: 2.7%); vehicle purchase tax decreased by 18.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 19.1%); stamp duty increased by 20.7% year - on - year (previous value: 19.7%), among which securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% year - on - year (previous value: 54.1%); resource tax decreased by 1.6% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.4%); among land and real - estate - related taxes, deed tax decreased by 15% year - on - year (previous value: - 14.8%), property tax increased by 11.2% year - on - year (previous value: 12%), urban land use tax increased by 5.8% year - on - year (previous value: 5.8%), land value - added tax decreased by 17.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 17.6%), and arable land occupation tax increased by 3.1% year - on - year (previous value: 2.4%); environmental protection tax increased by 12.5% year - on - year (previous value: 16.4%); other tax revenues increased by 0.9% year - on - year (previous value: 0.7%) [36][42][43]. General Public Budget Expenditure - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 16.0737 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% (previous value: 3.4%). Central expenditure increased by 8.8% year - on - year (previous value: 9%), and local expenditure increased by 2.5% year - on - year (previous value: 2.6%) [46]. - Main expenditure items: education expenditure was 2.4438 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% (previous value: 5.9%); science and technology expenditure was 0.533 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% (previous value: 9.1%); culture, tourism, sports, and media expenditure was 0.2012 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% (previous value: 5%); social security and employment expenditure was 2.7621 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% (previous value: 9.2%); health expenditure was 1.2402 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% (previous value: 4.3%); energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure was 0.2949 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% (previous value: 5.9%); urban and rural community expenditure decreased by 3.5% year - on - year (previous value: - 4.2%); agricultural, forestry, and water expenditure decreased by 7.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 7.8%); transportation expenditure decreased by 3.3% year - on - year (previous value: 3.1%); debt interest payment was 0.7573 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% (previous value: 6.1%) [47][55][56]. Government - Funded Budget Revenue - From January to July 2025, the national government - funded budget revenue was 2.3124 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% (previous value: - 2.4%). Central revenue increased by 8.8% year - on - year (previous value: 4.8%), and local revenue decreased by 1.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.2%). The state - owned land use right transfer revenue was 1.695 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% (previous value: - 6.5%) [57]. Government - Funded Budget Expenditure - From January to July 2025, the national government - funded budget expenditure was 5.4287 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% (previous value: 30%). Central expenditure increased by 4.5 times year - on - year (previous value: 6.2 times), and local expenditure increased by 18.1% year - on - year (previous value: 15.1%). The expenditure related to state - owned land use right transfer revenue was 2.3572 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1% (previous value: - 6.4%) [58][59].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. Treasury officials reported record-high revenue and expenditure levels for the current fiscal year, with revenue at $3.482 trillion and expenditure at $4.846 trillion [1] Group 2 - The reported revenue of $3.482 trillion represents the highest amount recorded for this period in U.S. history [1] - The expenditure of $4.846 trillion also marks a historical peak for the same timeframe [1]

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The report analyzes the risk of a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, indicating that the scale of US Treasury holdings and daily trading volume is significantly larger than that of any other country, suggesting that no single nation can manipulate the US Treasury market [2] - Historical data shows that reductions in overseas holdings have less impact on US Treasury trends compared to fundamental variables, but a coordinated sell-off by multiple countries in response to tariffs could significantly disrupt the US Treasury market and global financial markets [2] Group 2: Fixed Income - In April, the broad fiscal revenue showed a slight positive change with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while fiscal expenditure grew by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating an acceleration in spending [2] - Cumulatively, from January to April, broad fiscal revenue decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 7.2% [2] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - Investment recommendations for the liquor sector emphasize strengthening core capabilities and highlight three main lines: leading brands with increasing market share, high-certainty regional brands, and resilient recovery stocks [3] - For consumer products, the report suggests focusing on opportunities in beer and beverages, with a particular emphasis on companies benefiting from policy changes or recovery improvements, as well as those with high growth potential [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report discusses the collaboration between Sanofi and Pfizer regarding the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, which includes a non-refundable upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments up to $4.8 billion [6] - Sanofi retains rights for development and commercialization in mainland China, while Pfizer will have an option for commercialization in that region based on agreed financial terms [6]