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政府债发行追踪:2025年第40周
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 05:34
研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期:2025年10月9日 本周新增专项债发行160亿,环比减少1336亿,下周计划发行0亿 截至10/5,新增专项债发行进度为83.6% 2025 近2年均值 2025 · - 2024 -- 2023 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 r 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 - -0.5 L 第5周 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 9月新增专项债累计发行4131亿元 9月新增一般债累计发行510亿元 2025 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 2024 -- 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 + 2500 F 2000 10000 1500 5000 1000 500 -5000 -500 L 1月 2月 10月 11月 12月 10月 ...
固收策略大百科系列之十一:政府债发行如何预测?
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-12 02:42
Group 1 - The annual government debt limit is determined at the National People's Congress in March each year, which includes central and local fiscal deficits and special bonds issuance limits [1][10][11] - Historical adjustments to the annual government debt limit have occurred, such as increases in deficit limits for disaster recovery and infrastructure projects [12][10] Group 2 - The method for predicting government bonds involves two steps: determining the issuance dates and estimating the issuance scale based on the latest issuance plans and historical data [2][14][22] - The issuance plan for government bonds is typically disclosed in April, allowing for a general understanding of the issuance rhythm throughout the year [14][15] Group 3 - The prediction method for local bonds differs significantly from that of national bonds, relying on quarterly issuance plans disclosed by local governments [3][29][32] - Actual issuance often deviates from planned issuance, necessitating adjustments based on historical performance and regional announcements [32][36] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the supply of government bonds to anticipate market trends, as increased supply can lead to falling bond prices and rising yields [9][39] - The net financing amount of government bonds indicates potential liquidity impacts in the market, as it reflects the transfer of funds from commercial banks to government accounts [9][39] Group 5 - The report provides specific forecasts for government bond issuance, estimating net issuance for August and September at 1.47 trillion and 1.14 trillion yuan, respectively [40][41] - The report highlights the observed trend of refinancing bonds, which typically account for around 93% of the total maturity volume, aiding in predicting future refinancing needs [36][38]
政府债发行追踪:2025年第32周
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 05:46
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report presents the issuance progress and net financing scale of government bonds in the 32nd week of 2025, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Category New Special Bonds - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.0% [3]. - This week, new special bonds issued 4.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.29 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - As of August 10, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 4.03 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 68.2% [7]. - This week, new general bonds issued 730 million yuan, a decrease of 1.36 billion yuan from the previous week [6]. - As of August 10, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 730 million yuan [5]. Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 8.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.97 billion yuan from the previous week [8]. - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 64.7% [9]. National Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was 33.86 billion yuan, an increase of 17.83 billion yuan from the previous week [12]. - As of August 10, the net financing progress of national bonds was 64.7% [13]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 42.14 billion yuan, an increase of 1.86 billion yuan from the previous week [14]. - As of August 10, the progress of national bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 64.7% [14].