证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 政府债发行如何预测？ 固收策略大百科系列之十一 ►政府债全年限额于年初两会确定 全年的政府债务限额通常在每年 3 月的全国人民代表大会上审 议确定。其中包含对应全年一般国债净融资额限额的中央财政赤 字、对应全年地方新增一般债发行限额的地方财政赤字，以及全年 特别国债和地方政府专项债的发行限额。此外，历史上也曾出现过 年中调整政府债全年限额的情形。 ►国债预测方法 国债发行预测更像是一个"填空题"，共分为两步，我们需要 确定填空的格子在哪天，同时对应填上当天发行规模的数字。 首先，如何确定填空的格子在哪天？我们需要参考财政部的发 行计划表。全年的国债发行计划能够对各期限债券的发行节奏有大 致的把握，而更加精确的预测则需要依据最新季度披露的发行计 划。 其次，确定往格子里填多大的数字。一般情况下，单只国债发 行规模的预测主要参考最新发行的同种类同期限国债，但偶尔我们 也需针对三方面的影响，酌情调整预判数字，或给出不同情形的假 设：一是国债的到期规模；二是地方债的发行节奏；三是国债的剩 余额度。确定了 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report presents the issuance progress and net financing scale of government bonds in the 32nd week of 2025, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Category New Special Bonds - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.0% [3]. - This week, new special bonds issued 4.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.29 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - As of August 10, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 4.03 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 68.2% [7]. - This week, new general bonds issued 730 million yuan, a decrease of 1.36 billion yuan from the previous week [6]. - As of August 10, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 730 million yuan [5]. Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 8.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.97 billion yuan from the previous week [8]. - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 64.7% [9]. National Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was 33.86 billion yuan, an increase of 17.83 billion yuan from the previous week [12]. - As of August 10, the net financing progress of national bonds was 64.7% [13]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 42.14 billion yuan, an increase of 1.86 billion yuan from the previous week [14]. - As of August 10, the progress of national bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 64.7% [14].