研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期:2025年10月9日 本周新增专项债发行160亿,环比减少1336亿,下周计划发行0亿 截至10/5,新增专项债发行进度为83.6% 2025 近2年均值 2025 · - 2024 -- 2023 2022 - 2021 1.5 r 4500 r 4000 3000 0.5 2000 1000 - -0.5 L 第5周 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第43周 第47周 第51周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 9月新增专项债累计发行4131亿元 9月新增一般债累计发行510亿元 2025 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 2024 -- 2023 - 2022 - 2021 15000 + 2500 F 2000 10000 1500 5000 1000 500 -5000 -500 L 1月 2月 10月 11月 12月 10月 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Data Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[2] Group 2: Trends in Fiscal Income and Expenditure - General fiscal income growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.3% in August 2025, down 3.3 percentage points from July[4] - General fiscal expenditure growth also declined, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in August 2025, down 6.1 percentage points from July[4] - Government fund income fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the slowdown in general fiscal income growth[20] Group 3: Government Debt and Support Measures - The large-scale support phase from government debt financing is nearing its end, with net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaling 8.5 trillion yuan by the end of August 2025[9] - The issuance progress of special bonds was 72%, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024[9] - Future fiscal support for the economy may weaken as the issuance of new government debt approaches its limit[3] Group 4: Economic Implications - The decline in fiscal support and the impact of external factors may lead to downward pressure on economic growth[3] - Retail growth for related products has slowed since June due to promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies[3] - The completion rate for general fiscal expenditure was 57.3%, slightly below the five-year average of 58.8%[2]

Report Summary Report Title Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 37, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the issuance of new special bonds reached 131.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 114 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 77.6% [4]. - As of September 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 14.7 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 149.7 billion yuan [4]. - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 14.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 14.7 billion yuan [7]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 192.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 156.1 billion yuan. As of September 14, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 77.9% [10]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 415.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 245.8 billion yuan [13]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 608.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 401.8 billion yuan. As of September 14, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 78.2% [16]. - As of September 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 79.4%, and the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 78.5% [21]. Data Details Special Bonds - New special bond issuance this week: 131.9 billion yuan, up 114 billion yuan week - on - week [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.6% [4]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 149.7 billion yuan [4]. General Bonds - New general bond issuance this week: 14.7 billion yuan, up 14.7 billion yuan week - on - week [7]. - Cumulative issuance in September as of September 14: 14.7 billion yuan [4]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 79.4% [21]. Local Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 192.8 billion yuan, up 156.1 billion yuan week - on - week [10]. - Issuance progress as of September 14: 77.9% [10]. Treasury Bonds - Net financing scale this week: 415.6 billion yuan, up 245.8 billion yuan week - on - week [13]. - Net financing progress as of September 14: 78.5% [21]. Government Bonds - Net financing this week: 608.4 billion yuan, up 401.8 billion yuan week - on - week [16]. - Progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance as of September 14: 78.2% [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 33rd week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and net financing scale of various types of bonds as of August 17, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous week. 3. Summary by Related Content New Special Bond Issuance - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.5% [4]. - This week, new special bonds issued 1.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.12 billion yuan compared with the previous week [4]. - As of August 17, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 5.93 billion yuan [5]. New General Bond Issuance - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 72.0% [10]. - This week, new general bonds issued 3.03 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week [8]. - As of August 17, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 3.76 billion yuan [25]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -1.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.66 billion yuan compared with the previous week [12]. - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 65.6% [12]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 21.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.39 billion yuan compared with the previous week [16]. - As of August 17, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 68.0% [18]. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 20.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.05 billion yuan compared with the previous week [20]. - As of August 17, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 66.9% [20].

Group 1 - Bonds are debt securities issued by governments, financial institutions, and corporations to raise funds, promising to pay interest at a certain rate and repay the principal under agreed conditions [1] - The most common types of bonds include fixed-rate bonds, floating-rate bonds, and zero-coupon bonds, which can be traded in the market, forming a bond market [1] - Government bonds are issued to cover government expenditures, invest in public works, and manage fiscal deficits, with investors receiving interest during the holding period and principal at maturity [1] Group 2 - Different types of government bonds include national bonds, special national bonds, ultra-long special national bonds, special bonds, general bonds, and refinancing bonds, each with unique characteristics regarding issuance, purpose, and management [2] - National bonds are issued by the central government to raise fiscal funds, typically to cover deficits or invest in public infrastructure and key projects [3] - Special national bonds are issued for specific policies and purposes, not suitable for ordinary investors, and do not require budget arrangements for repayment [4] Group 3 - Ultra-long special national bonds have a maturity of over 10 years and are used for long-term strategic projects, with a planned issuance scale of 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025 for major strategic implementations and key area security capability construction [5] - Local government bonds are issued by local governments to raise funds for local construction, categorized into general and special bonds, with the latter being used for specific projects with expected returns [6][9] - General bonds are issued to cover public fiscal deficits, while special bonds are for projects with certain returns, repaid through corresponding government fund revenues [9] Group 4 - Refinancing bonds are issued to raise funds for repaying existing debts and adjusting debt structures, with a focus on repaying old debts rather than funding new projects [9][10] - Special refinancing bonds have evolved to allow funds to be used for repaying existing local debts, including hidden debts, thus becoming an important tool for local debt management [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in Q2 2025, local government bonds outperformed similar-term national bonds, with a notable compression in yield spreads, particularly for 7Y and 10Y bonds, which saw a reduction of 12 basis points [1][3][8] - Institutional participation in local bond investments was strong, with insurance companies net buying 473 billion yuan in the secondary market, while the total scale of local bonds held by insurance companies reached 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in net purchases due to the maturity of existing bonds [1][8][9] - Funds shifted from minimal participation in Q1 to net buying 45.4 billion yuan in Q2, focusing on long-duration bonds, particularly in the 20-30Y and 10-15Y ranges, indicating a preference for longer maturities [2][3][9] Group 2 - The report highlights that in Q2 2025, funds reduced their holdings in bonds with maturities of 10Y and below by 4.9 billion yuan while increasing their holdings in bonds with maturities above 10Y by 3.3 billion yuan, with a particular emphasis on 10-15Y bonds [2][23][27] - The distribution of local bonds held by funds shows that bonds with maturities of 3Y and below constituted approximately 61% of their holdings, while the difference between general bonds and special bonds held by funds was minimal, with proportions of 52% and 48% respectively [2][23][27] - The report notes a preference for bonds from regions like Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang, which accounted for 60% of total holdings, while funds increased their positions in bonds from regions like Guangxi and Sichuan, indicating a shift in regional preferences [2][27][33] Group 3 - The future strategy outlook suggests that the domestic market faces pressure from insufficient effective demand, and while "anti-involution" policies may optimize capacity, economic recovery will require improved demand [3][39][44] - The report identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in the issuance of 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y local bonds, with current spreads compressing to within 10 basis points, indicating a favorable environment for investment [3][39][44] - It is noted that the valuation of 30Y local bonds remains attractive, with a yield of 2.06% and a spread of 13 basis points over national bonds, suggesting continued investment value in these securities [3][39][44]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 29th week of 2025, presenting data on the issuance and net financing of various types of bonds and their progress as of July 20, 2025 [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 Special - Purpose Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special - purpose bonds was 161.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 97.4 billion yuan [4]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new special - purpose bonds was 54.3% [4]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new special - purpose bonds in July was 228.3 billion yuan [5]. 3.2 General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 27.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13.1 billion yuan [7]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 61.8% [9]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in July was 42.1 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 152.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45.1 billion yuan [12]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 55.4% [12]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 58.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 135 billion yuan [17]. - As of July 20, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.1% [18]. 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 211.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 89.8 billion yuan [21]. - As of July 20, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local government bond issuance was 56.4% [21].

Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification Number: F3083989, Investment Consulting Number: Z0018635 [3] Key Data Points New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance reached 422.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 379.8 billion yuan [4] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 48.0% [4] - In June as of June 29, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 479.1 billion yuan [4] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 57.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 29.9 billion yuan [7] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 55.7% [8] - In June as of June 29, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 94.4 billion yuan [4] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 560.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 436.1 billion yuan [11] - As of June 29, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 49.2% [13] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was 111 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 24.1 billion yuan [16] - As of June 29, the treasury bond net financing progress was 50.3% [17] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 671.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 412.1 billion yuan [20] - As of June 29, the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance was 49.8% [21]