2026年03月02日 下周发行环比小幅上升至 2725 亿 7 A 5 -地方债周度跟踪 20260227 日一十分 《2 月实际发行或超 1 万亿元: 地方债周度跟踪 20260214》 2026/02/23 《2 月实际发行或明显大于发行计 -地方债周度跟踪 2026/02/08 20260206 % 《下周置换隐债地方债发行提速， 月或集中在首周发行- 度跟踪 20260130》 -地方债周 2026/02/01 《下周地方债供给明显放量 -110 方债周度跟踪 20260123 》 2026/01/25 《地方债发行或在 1 月下旬提速一 -地方债周度跟踪 20260116》 2026/01/18 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 本期地方债发行与净融资皆环比下降,预计下期地方债发行和净融资将环比上升。本期 (2026.2 ...

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking [2] Report Date - February 9, 2026 [3] Researcher Information - Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] - Gan Mang, Qualification No. F03124127, Investment Consultation No. Z0023461 [3] Key Data Points General Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in February was 75.5 billion yuan [4] - This week's new general bond issuance was 75.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 36.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned issuance is 61.6 billion yuan [4] Special Bond - As of February 8, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in February was 134.3 billion yuan [4] Local Government Bond Net Financing - This week's local government bond net financing scale was 578.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 268.1 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 320.5 billion yuan [5] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week's treasury bond net financing scale was 212 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 325.3 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is - 249.9 billion yuan [8] Government Bond Net Financing - This week's government bond net financing was 790.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 593.4 billion yuan, and next week's planned net financing is 70.6 billion yuan [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period shortened compared to the previous period, and the issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same-term treasury bonds increased, with the overall multiples rising. The issuance progress of new general bonds in 2026 exceeded that of the same period in 2025 but was slower than that in 2024, while the issuance progress of new special bonds was faster. The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to that in the same period in 2025, with larger planned issuance scales in January and March 2026 due to the late Spring Festival. The current 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The current issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2026.2.2 - 2026.2.8) was 5796.73 billion yuan/5789.27 billion yuan (compared to 4392.75 billion yuan/3108.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and it is expected to be 3221.36 billion yuan/3204.98 billion yuan in the next period (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.15). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.12 years, shorter than 17.31 years in the previous period. The issuance spreads of 10/30-year local government bonds over the same - term treasury bonds increased to 16.63/19.59BP, and the overall multiples increased (20.8 times and 21.2 times in the current period, compared to 19.7 times and 19.1 times in the previous period) [2][9][11]. - As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 17.0% and 11.4% of the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 24.7% and 15.8%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2025 was 14.0%/4.8% and 15.7%/6.1%, and in 2024 it was 21.6%/5.6% and 21.6%/5.6% [2][13][16]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 248.85 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 248.85 billion yuan. The planned issuance scales in January, February, and March 2026 are 84.44 billion yuan (actual issuance of 86.33 billion yuan), 68.32 billion yuan (57.97 billion yuan has been issued in the first week of February, and a total of 90.18 billion yuan is expected to be issued including the next week's forecast), and 96.09 billion yuan, compared to 39.20 billion yuan, 115.99 billion yuan, and 80.81 billion yuan in the same regions in the same period last year [2][23][28]. - The issuance of special new special bonds in the current period was 4.07 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 30.24 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively. As of February 6, 2026, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 was 6.94 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 55.30 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 27.7%; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 0.36 billion yuan [2][21]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for 10Y and widened for 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate increased - As of February 6, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 19.98BP and 21.90BP, narrowing by 0.90BP and widening by 5.80BP respectively compared to January 30, 2026, and were at the 53.40% and 85.70% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.78%, up from 0.66% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in Shandong, Tianjin, Liaoning and other regions were better than the national average [2][41]. - Currently, 20 - 30Y local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, the top of the spread adjustment since 2018 may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period, and it is expected to continue to rise in the next period. The current period (January 26 - February 1, 2026) saw a total issuance/net financing of RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period (February 2 - February 8, 2026) is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, the cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is approximately the same as that in the same period of 2025. Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (February), the planned issuance scale in January and March is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2]. - The current 10 - year local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period increased, and the weighted issuance term was extended - The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period increased significantly compared to the previous period. The current period's issuance/net financing is RMB 439.275 billion/RMB 310.854 billion, and the next period is expected to be RMB 579.673 billion/RMB 578.927 billion [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 17.31 years, which is longer than the previous period's 15.88 years [2][11]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term treasury bonds decreased/increased to 8.79/16.58BP respectively in the current period, and the full - field multiples decreased/increased [2][12]. - As of January 30, 2026, the issuance progress of new general bonds is slower than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025, but the issuance progress of new special bonds is faster. The cumulative issuance ratios of new general bonds and new special bonds to the annual quota (calculated based on the 2025 quota) are 7.6% and 8.4% respectively, and considering the expected issuance in the next period, they are 17.0% and 11.4% respectively [2][15][19]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is RMB 248.85 billion, which is comparable to that in the same period of 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is relatively larger. The issuance peak of local government bonds in February may be mainly in the first week, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts will significantly accelerate [2][25][30]. - In the current period, 19.1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 8.39 billion yuan and 0 yuan of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts and repay existing debts were issued respectively [2][23]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate remained flat - As of January 30, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.88BP and 16.10BP respectively, narrowing by 0.14BP and widening by 1.81BP compared to January 23, 2026, and were at the 59.50% and 57.90% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][37][38]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.66%, which is the same as the previous period [2][44]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Ningbo, Qinghai, and Sichuan are better than the national average [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since Q4 last year, there have been strong concerns about the supply of ultra - long bonds in the market. In January this year, the issuance scale of ultra - long government bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with the increment mainly from new special bonds, indicating a decent demand for capital for major project construction at the beginning of the year. The central bank's relatively active liquidity injection and banks' increased purchases at the ultra - long end have alleviated market concerns to some extent [3]. - From the perspective of achieving the annual economic target, the annual fiscal increment may exceed market expectations, and fiscal policies may be supplemented in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long government bonds will be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan, with certain supply pressure in February and March [3]. - Insurance is likely to have a good start, with an expected annual premium growth of 6.6% and the growth rate of the balance of funds utilization remaining at around 15%. It is estimated that in 2026, the proportion of ultra - long bonds allocated by insurance in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will remain basically flat at about 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan, basically the same as in 2025 [3]. - It is estimated that the investment scale of commercial banks in ultra - long bonds in 2026 will be about 4.82 trillion yuan, accounting for about 67.7% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, a year - on - year increase of 0.66 trillion yuan [3]. - For trading institutions, based on a neutral judgment of the interest rate trend, the investment scale of funds and securities firms in ultra - long bonds may be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, totaling about 10 billion yuan [3]. - The 30 - 10 - year term spread in 2025 mainly widened due to the contraction of trading desks' demand for ultra - long bonds and frictions in the trading process, rather than being mainly determined by primary supply [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How is the supply of ultra - long government bonds this year calculated according to the upper limit? - It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, including 7.143 trillion yuan for treasury bonds and 7.938 trillion yuan for local bonds. In terms of issuance, the issuance of general treasury bonds will be 14.1377 trillion yuan, special treasury bonds 2 trillion yuan, new general bonds 80 billion yuan, new special bonds 550 billion yuan, special refinancing bonds 200 billion yuan, and ordinary refinancing bonds 325.8 billion yuan [7]. - The issuance of ultra - long government bonds in 2026 is expected to be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. Among them, the issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds will be 1.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 225 billion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long local bonds will be 5.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 475 billion yuan [8]. - For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan. The issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds in Q1 is usually low because special treasury bonds need to be approved by the Two Sessions and are expected to start issuing at the end of April. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 is about 2.38 trillion yuan, with a relatively high refinancing ratio, and the issuance of replacement bonds is expected to be in the front, making room for new bonds for construction projects later. The issuance progress of new special bonds is expected to be faster than last year [9][10]. 3.2 How is the demand for ultra - long bonds? 3.2.1 Insurance - In 2025, the premium income of insurance companies from January to November was 5.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. Property insurance increased by 2.48% year - on - year, with auto insurance as the main source of income, accounting for over 52% and highly correlated with the growth rate of vehicle ownership. Personal insurance increased by 9.2% year - on - year, with life insurance accounting for about 77% and growing by 11.47%, mainly driven by the popularity of savings - type insurance products [12][13]. - In 2026, the probability of a "good start" for premium income is high. Favorable factors include high - interest fixed - deposit maturities, the correlation between the stock market's good start in January and premium income growth, and a low base in 2025. Unfavorable factors include pressure on traditional life insurance and the over - consumption of demand due to previous "panic - buying" promotions. It is expected that the annual premium income will achieve stable growth, with property insurance growing by about 2% and personal insurance by about 8%, and the overall insurance premium income increasing by about 6.6% [14][15]. - At the end of Q3 2025, the balance of insurance funds utilization was 37.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. In 2026, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the balance of insurance funds utilization will decline slightly to 15%. The proportion of bank deposits is expected to drop to 7%, the proportion of stock investment to rise to 11.5%, the proportion of fund investment to rise to 6%, the proportion of long - term equity investment to be stable at 8%, and the proportion of other investments to drop to 16%. The proportion of bonds will remain stable at 51.5%, with a net increment of about 3.1 trillion yuan [20][21]. - From 2022 - 2025, the net purchases of ultra - long bonds by insurance institutions in the secondary market were 0.48, 0.73, 1.71, and 2.28 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 13.62%, 20.7%, 31.3%, and 35.5% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, and 48%, 41%, 67%, and 72% of the annual bond investment respectively. In 2026, it is expected that the proportion of ultra - long bonds in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop from 35.5% in 2025 to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will drop slightly from 72% in 2025 to 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan [25][26]. 3.2.2 Banks - In 2025, the proportion of banks' bond allocation increased significantly. The government bond custody volume of commercial banks was 63.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 67.17% of the outstanding government bonds. The incremental custody of government bonds by commercial banks in 2025 was 10.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 78% of the net financing of government bonds in 2025 [29]. - It is estimated that in 2026, the passive allocation scale of commercial banks for government bonds will be 10.56 trillion yuan, and the scale of bond purchases will be 17.56 trillion yuan. The scale of ultra - long bonds that commercial banks need to undertake may be 4.48 trillion yuan. It is also expected that the excess allocation scale of commercial banks for ultra - long bonds in 2026 will increase slightly to 0.34 trillion yuan compared with last year. Overall, the scale of commercial banks' allocation of ultra - long bonds in 2026 is estimated to be about 4.82 trillion yuan [30][32]. - After the implementation of the redemption new rules at the beginning of this year, part of the banks' entrusted - out investment has been transferred back to self - operated allocation. The probability of using this part of the funds to increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds is not high due to certain indicator pressures [33]. 3.2.3 Trading Institutions - In 2025, securities firms mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds, reduced their allocation of local bonds, and shortened the duration of government bonds. The investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds decreased by 1.493 billion yuan. In 2026, it is expected that the investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds will be basically the same as in 2025 [40][41]. - At the end of 2025, non - monetary funds held 12.51 trillion yuan in bond investments. In 2025, funds only net - bought 5.82 billion yuan of ultra - long interest - rate bonds. In 2026, due to the implementation of the fund sales new rules and concerns about the cancellation of tax exemption, the liability side of bond - type funds is unstable. It is expected that the investment scale of funds in ultra - long bonds will be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, about 10 billion yuan [41][42]. 3.3 Does the 30 - 10 - year term spread depend on primary supply? - The widening of the 30y - 10y treasury bond spread in 2025 mainly occurred in the second half of the year, mainly due to the significant improvement in the stock market sentiment, the fund sales new rules, and the interest - rate adjustment, which led to the selling of ultra - long bonds by trading - like desks. If primary supply were the decisive factor, the spread should have widened in Q2 2025 [45]. - The widening of the 30y - 10y local bond spread also shows that primary supply is not the main influencing factor, as the power of allocation desks is sufficient to hedge the selling pressure [45]. - For the secondary interest - rate trend, the willingness of trading desks to increase holdings and short - term frictions seem to be more crucial [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of local government bond issuance, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and investment and trading indicators [1][5][6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: The net supply of local bonds from January 19th to January 25th was 2032 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from January 26th to February 1st is 3109 billion yuan [1][5][20] - **Planned vs. Actual Issuance Comparison**: In January 2026, the planned and actual issuance of local bonds are presented in detail, showing differences in various types of bonds such as new - general bonds, new - special bonds, and refinancing bonds [18][22] Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of January 25th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 2.70%, and that of new special bonds was 3.49% [28] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of January 25th is presented in a time - series chart [28] Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 20000 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 2759.33 billion yuan, with an additional 980.25 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Anhui [7][32] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of January 25th, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 95.88 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25546.72 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2026 are Sichuan, Shandong, and Zhejiang [7][35] Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented, including overall and regional secondary spreads [38] - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: The investment directions of new special bonds are presented in a monthly statistics chart [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds in January 2026, covering both primary and secondary market conditions, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, capital investment directions, and trading volume and turnover rates [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 117.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 117.7 billion yuan, a 100.2 - billion - yuan increase compared to last week. There was no bond repayment. The issued bonds included 1 billion yuan of new general bonds, 87.4 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 29.2 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no refinancing general bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 30 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (47%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 96%, showing a significant increase from last week. The 30 - year bond issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 3 - year bond issuance proportion decreased by about 47 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 29.2 billion yuan were issued. In 2026, five regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 68.1 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds, all of which are special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Shandong and Liaoning have relatively large issuance volumes, with 25.6 billion yuan and 17 billion yuan respectively. This week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds were issued, and as of the end of this week, 3.3 billion yuan of special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2026, with Qingdao and Ningbo issuing 2.2 billion yuan and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [16][19]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted - average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 21.7bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted - average issuance spread at 24.3bp. The weighted - average issuance spreads of 7 - year and 30 - year local government bonds widened, while those of other terms narrowed. Shandong and Zhejiang issued local government bonds this week, with issuance spreads of 22.5bp and 18.8bp respectively [2][24]. - **Raised Funds Investment Directions**: As of the end of this week, the raised funds from new special bonds in 2026 were mainly invested in cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (47%), transportation infrastructure (14%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (10%) [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, some regions have disclosed the issuance plan for local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026, with a total planned issuance of about 2 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in January is 814.5 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 812.4 billion yuan and 1198 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to be issued worth 70.2 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 9.3 billion yuan and a net financing of 60.9 billion yuan, a 56.7 - billion - yuan decrease compared to this week. The issued bonds will include 22.8 billion yuan of new special bonds, 8.6 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 38.9 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds, with no new general bonds [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spread of 30 - year local government bonds widened, while the secondary spreads of other terms narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds reached 13.5bp and 13.1bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the secondary spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year local government bonds had relatively high historical quantiles, at 39% and 33% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 15 - year bonds in medium - strength regions, 10 - 15 - year bonds in strong regions, and 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak regions were also relatively high, reaching about 14 - 17bp [4][34]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The local government bonds of Qingdao and Shandong had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 321 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.59%. Among them, Shandong's local government bonds had a large trading volume of 57 billion yuan, and the turnover rates of Qingdao and Shandong's local government bonds were relatively high, at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [5][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) will also decline significantly. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has lengthened. The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds shows a narrowing trend for the 10Y and a widening trend for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased. Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of 3/10/15Y local government bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) was 40.037 billion yuan/28.157 billion yuan (compared with 106.955 billion yuan/62.187 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) is 2.037 billion yuan/- 3.174 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.15 years, which was longer than 12.52 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it remains at 96.2% and 103.4%. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original 4.4 trillion yuan quota by 14.95 billion yuan/15.15 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 92.0%/99.7% and 94.5%/99.8%, and in 2023, it was 97.2%/98.0% and 97.3%/98.1% [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in December 2025 is 176.1 billion yuan in total, of which new special bonds are 58.4 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, 17 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 176.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds of 58.4 billion yuan. The previous year's issuance in the same regions was 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan, and the national issuance in the same period of the previous year was 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 1.2 billion yuan, and there was no issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1366.8 billion yuan (1.2 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 2000 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period), with the issuance progress reaching 100%, and this year's quota has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 287.5 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period) [2]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for the 10Y and widened for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of December 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.92BP and 21.48BP respectively, narrowing by 1.12BP and widening by 3.35BP compared with December 12, 2025 (which were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively on December 12, 2025), and were at the 72.20% and 83.20% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.77%, a decrease compared with 0.86% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Guizhou were better than the national average [2]. - Regarding the cost - effectiveness of local government bonds, taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The current issuance of new special-purpose bonds has started to utilize the RMB 50 billion carry-over quota. As of December 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 95.5% and 102.7% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 96.2% and 103.4%. The carry-over quota of RMB 2 trillion for special bonds to replace hidden debts has been fully issued [2]. - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period are similar to the previous period, and it is expected to decline significantly in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period has been extended [2]. - The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has widened for 10-year bonds and narrowed for 30-year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month-on-month. Attention should be paid to the cost-effectiveness of current 10/15-year local bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The current issuance volume of local bonds has decreased, and the weighted issuance term has been extended - The current period (December 8 - 14, 2025) saw a total issuance/net financing of local bonds of RMB 106.955 billion/RMB 62.187 billion (compared to RMB 108.717 billion/RMB 60.494 billion in the previous period). The next period (December 15 - 21, 2025) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of RMB 40.037 billion/RMB 28.157 billion. The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period is 12.52 years, an extension from 11.22 years in the previous period [2][8][10]. - As of December 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 95.5% and 102.7% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 96.2% and 103.4%. The part exceeding 100% may come from the RMB 50 billion carry-over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeded the original RMB 4.4 trillion quota by RMB 12.02 billion/RMB 14.95 billion [2][13][16]. - In December 2025, the planned issuance of local bonds totals RMB 168.2 billion, including RMB 50.5 billion of new special-purpose bonds. As of December 12, 2025, 16 regions have disclosed a planned issuance of RMB 168.2 billion of local bonds, including RMB 50.5 billion of new special-purpose bonds. The issuance in the same regions in the same period last year was RMB 420.3 billion and RMB 0.8 billion respectively, and the national issuance in the same period last year was RMB 1091.3 billion and RMB 2.11 billion respectively [2][24][25]. - In the current period, RMB 7.3 billion of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, and RMB 0 billion and RMB 16.8 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively. The quota of RMB 2 trillion for special bonds to replace hidden debts this year has been fully issued [2][20][21]. 2. The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds in the current period has widened for 10-year bonds and narrowed for 30-year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month-on-month - As of December 12, 2025, the spreads between 10-year and 30-year local bonds and treasury bonds were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively, widening by 4.84BP and narrowing by 6.16BP compared to December 5, 2025 (which were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively), and were at the 79.00% and 68.00% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][28][32]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period is 0.86%, a month-on-month decrease from 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10-year local bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Jilin, and Tianjin are better than the national average [2][39][40]. - Taking 10-year local bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. The current upper and lower limits of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP and 5 - 10BP respectively [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week ending December 1, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, fundraising directions, and trading activities [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 351.4 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 199.2 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 325.9 billion yuan, with new general bonds at 8.7 billion yuan, new special bonds at 225.3 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds at 68.8 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds at 48.6 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (27%) this week, and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 76%, slightly down from last week. The 30 - year bonds' issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 5 - year bonds' decreased by about 8 percentage points [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 82.7 billion yuan were issued. As of now, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue special refinancing bonds totaling 2.2802 trillion yuan in 2025, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou are expected to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 20.4bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 25.8bp, and spreads for all terms widened. Jilin, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 25bp [1][25]. - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve increased by 16.9% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.3% [2][28]. - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their fourth - quarter 2025 local government bond issuance plans. Considering the actual issuance in October and November, the total planned issuance in the fourth quarter is nearly 1.6 trillion yuan, with 104.9 billion yuan in December. Next week, 108.7 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment amount of 48.2 billion yuan and net financing of 60.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 265.4 billion yuan compared to this week [3][33]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, while those of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 18.7bp and 16.4bp respectively. In terms of historical quantiles over the past three years, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year bonds were at relatively high levels, 44% and 70% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of bonds over 20 - year in each region were relatively high, between 14 - 18bp, and those of bonds over 10 - year in medium - level regions were also relatively high [5][36]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. Shenzhen and Chongqing had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 379 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.70%. Guangdong had the largest trading volume at 3.62 billion yuan, while Shenzhen and Chongqing had the highest turnover rates at 2.0% and 1.6% respectively [5][41].