固定收益组 甘青 从业资格号 F03124127 投资咨询号 Z0023461 固定收益组 程小庆 2026-01-05 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0018635 政府债发行追踪 -- 2025年第53周 截至12/31,新增一般债发行进度为96.3% 2019年 -2022年 2020年 2021年 2023年 2024年 ·2025年 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 | 本周地方债净融资规模为174亿，环比增加206亿，下周计划净融资1177亿 | | | --- | --- | | 亿元 | ■2025年 ■过去2年平均 | | 5000 г | | 截至12/31,新增地方债发行进度为103.1% 2019年 2022年 2020年 2021年 2023年 2024年 ·2025年 120% г 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 15 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 52nd week of 2025, presenting the issuance and net - financing progress of various types of bonds, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national debt [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type New Special Bonds - This week, new special bond issuance was 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 104.0%. Next week, 14.5 billion yuan is planned for issuance [4]. - As of December 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 120.4 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week, new general bond issuance was 0 billion yuan, a decrease of 6 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3% [7][16]. - As of December 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 38.4 billion yuan [4]. Local Bonds - As of December 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 102.8% [10]. - This week, the net - financing scale of local bonds was - 0.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.12 billion yuan compared to last week. Next week, 1.74 billion yuan of net - financing is planned [16]. National Debt - As of December 28, the net - financing progress of national debt was 98.2%. This week, the net - financing scale of national debt was 178 billion yuan, an increase of 225.3 billion yuan compared to last week. Next week, the planned net - financing is 0 billion yuan [12]. Government Bonds - This week, the net - financing of government bonds was 174.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 194 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the progress of national debt net - financing plus new local bond issuance was 100.2%. Next week, 1.74 billion yuan of net - financing is planned [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance progress of new special bonds as of 12/28 is 104.0%, with new special bonds issued this week amounting to 2 billion, a decrease of 27.2 billion compared to the previous week, and a planned issuance of 14.5 billion next week [4] - The cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December as of 12/28 is 3.84 billion, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December is 12.04 billion [4] - The issuance progress of new local bonds as of 12/28 is 102.8%, and the issuance progress of new general bonds is 96.3% [10][16] - The net financing progress of national debt as of 12/28 is 98.2%. The net financing scale of national debt this week is 178 billion, an increase of 225.3 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 0. The net financing of government bonds this week is 174.8 billion, a decrease of 194 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 1.74 billion [12] - The net financing scale of local bonds this week is -0.32 billion, a decrease of 3.12 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 1.74 billion [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **New Special Bonds** - This week's issuance: 2 billion, a decrease of 27.2 billion compared to the previous week [4] - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 104.0% [4] - Next week's planned issuance: 14.5 billion [4] - **New General Bonds** - This week's issuance: 0, a decrease of 6 billion compared to the previous week [7] - Cumulative issuance in December as of 12/28: 3.84 billion [4] - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 96.3% [16] - **New Local Bonds** - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 102.8% [10] - This week's net financing scale: -0.32 billion, a decrease of 3.12 billion compared to the previous week [16] - Next week's planned net financing: 1.74 billion [16] - **National Debt** - Net financing progress as of 12/28: 98.2% [12] - This week's net financing scale: 178 billion, an increase of 225.3 billion compared to the previous week [12] - Next week's planned net financing: 0 [12] - **Government Bonds** - This week's net financing: 174.8 billion, a decrease of 194 billion compared to the previous week [12] - Next week's planned net financing: 1.74 billion [12]

Report Summary Report Information - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 51, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Cheng Xiaoqing, Gan Qing [3] - Report Date: December 22, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The issuance of new special bonds and general bonds shows a certain pattern, and the net financing scale of government bonds, local bonds, and national debt has changed significantly this week. The issuance progress of new local bonds and national debt net financing has reached a relatively high level. [4][10][12] Key Points by Category New Special Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 29.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan from the previous week. As of December 21, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 104.0%. Next week, the planned issuance is 2 billion yuan. [4] - As of December 21, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 118.4 billion yuan. [4] New General Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15 billion yuan from the previous week. As of December 21, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3%. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 billion yuan. [4][18][19] - As of December 21, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 38.4 billion yuan. [4] New Local Bond Issuance - As of December 21, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 102.8%. [10] National Debt Net Financing - As of December 21, the national debt net financing progress was 95.5%. This week, the national debt net financing scale was -47.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 285.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 118 billion yuan. [12] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was -19.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 319.5 billion yuan from the previous week. As of December 21, the national debt net financing + new local bond issuance progress was 98.7%. Next week, the planned net financing is 114.8 billion yuan. [12] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 28.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -3.2 billion yuan. [13]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of November 30, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds reached 101.3%, new general bonds reached 91.5%, new local bonds reached 99.8%, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 93.2%, and the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance reached 96.1% [3][8][10][14][15] Key Data Special-Purpose Bonds - This week, 225.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 143 billion yuan, and 39 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [3] - In November, a total of 492.2 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued [4] General Bonds - This week, 8.8 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week decrease of 11.6 billion yuan, and 11.4 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [7] - In November, a total of 41.6 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued [5] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 325.9 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 199.2 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 60.5 billion yuan [9] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 39.1 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 62.5 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is -133.8 billion yuan [13] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 365 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 136.7 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is -73.3 billion yuan [15]

Report Summary 1. Core Data - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 126.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 304.1 billion yuan. As of November 23, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 95.3% [6]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 101.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 142.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -56.1 billion yuan. As of November 23, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 92.6% [10]. - As of November 23, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 90.4%. This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 2.04 billion yuan, an increase of 0.78 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 0.88 billion yuan. As of November 23, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in November was 3.29 billion yuan [17][18]. - As of November 23, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 96.2%. This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 82.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.1 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 225.4 billion yuan. As of November 23, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in November was 266.9 billion yuan [18]. 2. Core View The report provides a detailed tracking of the issuance of government bonds in the 47th week of 2025, including the net financing scale and issuance progress of local government bonds, treasury bonds, general bonds, and special bonds, which helps investors understand the current situation of government bond issuance.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the spread between 1 - 2 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" remains stable, while the spread between 3 - 5 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" has widened rapidly, and the 5 - year spread has exceeded the level during the central bank's bond - buying period last year, indicating that the central bank's main bond - buying tenor is currently 3 - 5 years [1][4][13]. - The widening spread of 7 - 10 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" more reflects the impact of the new regulations on the redemption of public bond funds and the change in the allocation power of China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds [1][4][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Key Information Implied by Spreads between China Development Bank Bonds and Treasury Bonds of Different Tenors - Before 2024, the spread (or implicit tax rate) between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds mainly reflected the changes in the bond - buying power of configuration - type investors such as bank self - operations and trading - type investors such as bond funds under the tax difference, with obvious characteristics of "narrowing in bull markets and widening in bear markets" [2][11]. - Currently, using the "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" spread can better reflect the change in the demand structure. After August 8, 2024, the "continuity" of the implicit tax rate is worse than the spread due to the resumption of value - added tax on the interest income of financial bonds [3][12]. - From August to December 2024, the central bank continuously net - bought Treasury bonds worth 1 trillion yuan, during which the spreads of 1 - year and 2 - year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" widened significantly. The "claims on the government" item in the central bank's balance sheet decreased by about 660 billion yuan in 2025, indicating that the tenors of Treasury bonds purchased by the central bank in 2024 were relatively short [3][12]. 3.2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations: Restart Treasury Bond Trading to Inject Base Money - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (November 3 - 7), the central bank's net repurchase of pledged reverse repurchase was 1572.2 billion yuan. As of November 7, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 495.8 billion yuan, seasonally at a low level at the beginning of the month [20]. - Medium - term liquidity: In November, the maturity amount of outright reverse repurchase was 1000 billion yuan (700 billion yuan for 3 - month and 300 billion yuan for 6 - month), and the maturity of MLF was 900 billion yuan. On November 5, the central bank renewed 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase [21][22]. 3.2.2 Institutions' Fund Lending and Borrowing Situation: Sufficient Supply in the Upper and Middle Reaches - Fund supply (lenders): On November 7, the net lending of large - scale banks was 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 730.2 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 280.5 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 183.3 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 114.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 116.7 billion yuan compared with October 31 [25]. - Fund demand (borrowers): On November 7, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 11.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 202.4 billion yuan compared with October 31. The inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points compared with October 31 [34]. 3.2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation: Stable in Both Volume and Price - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repo market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 996.8 billion yuan compared with October 27 - 31. The median of R001 was 1.36%, a decrease of 4bp compared with last week [36]. 3.2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Basically Flat - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate were basically flat compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS this week was 1.54%, and the median of the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS was 1.59% [44]. 3.3 Government Bonds: Rising Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week - **Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds**: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 36.8 billion yuan. In the coming week, it is expected to be 369.2 billion yuan, with relatively high pressure on Monday and Friday [46]. - **Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds**: As of November 7, the net financing progress of Treasury bonds was 87.8%, with about 810.3 billion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 90.4%, with 500.2 billion yuan of remaining issuance space [48]. 3.4 Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit: Decreasing in Volume and Stable in Price - **Absolute Yield**: On November 7, most SHIBOR quotes of different tenors decreased compared with October 31, except for the overnight tenor which increased by 1bp. The yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit of 1 - month and above tenors increased compared with October 31 [52]. - **Issuance and Stock Situation**: In the past week, the total issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 527.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 207.1 billion yuan compared with October 27 - 31. In terms of issuance tenors, the proportions of 6 - month and 9 - month increased, while those of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year decreased [54]. - **Relative Valuation**: On November 7, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 16bp, at the 35th percentile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year Treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield was 18bp, at the 42nd percentile since 2020 [57].

Report Summary 1. Core Data - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 90.1%. This week, 154.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 42.5 billion yuan, and 45.2 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [4]. - As of October 31, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 287.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 18.3 billion yuan [5]. - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 17 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 15.7 billion yuan, and 0 yuan is planned to be issued next week [6]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 9.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is -36 billion yuan. As of November 2, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5% [9]. - As of November 2, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.0% [12]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 13.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 114.5 billion yuan. As of November 2, the net financing of treasury bonds + the issuance progress of new local bonds was 86.4% [15]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 23.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 150.4 billion yuan [19]. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 44th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, issuance scale, and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and treasury bonds, as well as their week-on-week changes and future issuance plans [4][6][9]

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 44, 2025 [2] Report Date - November 3, 2025 [3] Key Points 1. New Special Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 90.1%. This week, 154.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 42.5 billion yuan. Next week, 45.2 billion yuan is planned to be issued [4] 2. New General Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 17 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 15.7 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 billion yuan [6] 3. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is - 36 billion yuan. As of November 2, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5% [9] 4. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 150.4 billion yuan. As of November 2, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.0% [12][19] 5. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 13.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 114.5 billion yuan. As of November 2, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 86.4% [15] 6. October Cumulative Issuance - As of October 31, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 287.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 18.3 billion yuan [5]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 74.2%, with 188 billion yuan issued this week, a decrease of 51.3 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new special-purpose bonds was 486.5 billion yuan [4]. - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 77.6%, with 35.3 billion yuan issued this week, an increase of 25.8 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 82.5 billion yuan [7][9]. - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 243.5 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 74.7% [11]. - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was -237.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 589.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the net financing progress of national bonds was 69.7% [15][17]. - As of August 31, the combined issuance progress of national bond net financing and new local government bonds was 71.9% [19]. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Directory Summaries There is no clear directory information provided in the content, so this part cannot be summarized accordingly.