截至11/23, 新增地方债发行进度为95.3% 2025 近2年均值 中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 政府债发行追踪―2025年第47周 研究员: 程小庆 从业资格号 F3083989 投资咨询号 Z0018635 报告日期: 2025年11月24日 近2年均值 2025 800 600 400 200 0 -50 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 1.5 r 0.5 -0.5 第1周 第4周 第12周 第16周 第20周 第24周 第24周 第28周 第31周 第35周 第39周 第43周 第47周 第51周 本周地方债净融资规模为1263亿，环比减少1164亿 下周计划净融资3041亿 · 2025 - 2024 - 2023 2022 - 2021 6000 - 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 I II I 0 H -500 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the spread between 1 - 2 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" remains stable, while the spread between 3 - 5 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" has widened rapidly, and the 5 - year spread has exceeded the level during the central bank's bond - buying period last year, indicating that the central bank's main bond - buying tenor is currently 3 - 5 years [1][4][13]. - The widening spread of 7 - 10 year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" more reflects the impact of the new regulations on the redemption of public bond funds and the change in the allocation power of China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds [1][4][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Key Information Implied by Spreads between China Development Bank Bonds and Treasury Bonds of Different Tenors - Before 2024, the spread (or implicit tax rate) between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds mainly reflected the changes in the bond - buying power of configuration - type investors such as bank self - operations and trading - type investors such as bond funds under the tax difference, with obvious characteristics of "narrowing in bull markets and widening in bear markets" [2][11]. - Currently, using the "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" spread can better reflect the change in the demand structure. After August 8, 2024, the "continuity" of the implicit tax rate is worse than the spread due to the resumption of value - added tax on the interest income of financial bonds [3][12]. - From August to December 2024, the central bank continuously net - bought Treasury bonds worth 1 trillion yuan, during which the spreads of 1 - year and 2 - year "China Development Bank bonds - Treasury bonds" widened significantly. The "claims on the government" item in the central bank's balance sheet decreased by about 660 billion yuan in 2025, indicating that the tenors of Treasury bonds purchased by the central bank in 2024 were relatively short [3][12]. 3.2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations: Restart Treasury Bond Trading to Inject Base Money - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (November 3 - 7), the central bank's net repurchase of pledged reverse repurchase was 1572.2 billion yuan. As of November 7, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 495.8 billion yuan, seasonally at a low level at the beginning of the month [20]. - Medium - term liquidity: In November, the maturity amount of outright reverse repurchase was 1000 billion yuan (700 billion yuan for 3 - month and 300 billion yuan for 6 - month), and the maturity of MLF was 900 billion yuan. On November 5, the central bank renewed 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase [21][22]. 3.2.2 Institutions' Fund Lending and Borrowing Situation: Sufficient Supply in the Upper and Middle Reaches - Fund supply (lenders): On November 7, the net lending of large - scale banks was 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 730.2 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 280.5 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 183.3 billion yuan compared with October 31. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 114.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 116.7 billion yuan compared with October 31 [25]. - Fund demand (borrowers): On November 7, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 11.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 202.4 billion yuan compared with October 31. The inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points compared with October 31 [34]. 3.2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation: Stable in Both Volume and Price - In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repo market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 996.8 billion yuan compared with October 27 - 31. The median of R001 was 1.36%, a decrease of 4bp compared with last week [36]. 3.2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Basically Flat - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rate were basically flat compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS this week was 1.54%, and the median of the 1 - year SHIBOR 3 - month IRS was 1.59% [44]. 3.3 Government Bonds: Rising Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week - **Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds**: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 36.8 billion yuan. In the coming week, it is expected to be 369.2 billion yuan, with relatively high pressure on Monday and Friday [46]. - **Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds**: As of November 7, the net financing progress of Treasury bonds was 87.8%, with about 810.3 billion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 90.4%, with 500.2 billion yuan of remaining issuance space [48]. 3.4 Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit: Decreasing in Volume and Stable in Price - **Absolute Yield**: On November 7, most SHIBOR quotes of different tenors decreased compared with October 31, except for the overnight tenor which increased by 1bp. The yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit of 1 - month and above tenors increased compared with October 31 [52]. - **Issuance and Stock Situation**: In the past week, the total issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 527.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 207.1 billion yuan compared with October 27 - 31. In terms of issuance tenors, the proportions of 6 - month and 9 - month increased, while those of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year decreased [54]. - **Relative Valuation**: On November 7, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 16bp, at the 35th percentile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year Treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield was 18bp, at the 42nd percentile since 2020 [57].

Report Summary 1. Core Data - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 90.1%. This week, 154.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 42.5 billion yuan, and 45.2 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [4]. - As of October 31, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 287.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 18.3 billion yuan [5]. - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 17 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 15.7 billion yuan, and 0 yuan is planned to be issued next week [6]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 9.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is -36 billion yuan. As of November 2, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5% [9]. - As of November 2, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.0% [12]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 13.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 114.5 billion yuan. As of November 2, the net financing of treasury bonds + the issuance progress of new local bonds was 86.4% [15]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 23.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 150.4 billion yuan [19]. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 44th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, issuance scale, and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and treasury bonds, as well as their week-on-week changes and future issuance plans [4][6][9]

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 44, 2025 [2] Report Date - November 3, 2025 [3] Key Points 1. New Special Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 90.1%. This week, 154.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 42.5 billion yuan. Next week, 45.2 billion yuan is planned to be issued [4] 2. New General Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 17 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 15.7 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 billion yuan [6] 3. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is - 36 billion yuan. As of November 2, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5% [9] 4. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 150.4 billion yuan. As of November 2, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.0% [12][19] 5. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 13.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 114.5 billion yuan. As of November 2, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 86.4% [15] 6. October Cumulative Issuance - As of October 31, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 287.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 18.3 billion yuan [5]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 74.2%, with 188 billion yuan issued this week, a decrease of 51.3 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new special-purpose bonds was 486.5 billion yuan [4]. - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 77.6%, with 35.3 billion yuan issued this week, an increase of 25.8 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 82.5 billion yuan [7][9]. - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 243.5 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 74.7% [11]. - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was -237.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 589.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the net financing progress of national bonds was 69.7% [15][17]. - As of August 31, the combined issuance progress of national bond net financing and new local government bonds was 71.9% [19]. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Directory Summaries There is no clear directory information provided in the content, so this part cannot be summarized accordingly.