城投ABS

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固收深度报告:结构化融资再观察:城投ABS市场回顾与前瞻-市场篇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-08 03:49
Group 1 - The current structured financing market for urban investment ABS is primarily dominated by enterprise ABS, with a small scale of ABN, reflecting significant structural differentiation and regional concentration [1][2] - As of April 2025, the outstanding balance of enterprise ABS is 30.744 billion yuan, accounting for 91%, while ABN accounts for only 9% [1][2] - The weighted average interest rate of urban investment ABS is 3.25%, which is 42 basis points lower than urban investment bonds, indicating a "low coupon rate dominates scale, high coupon rate dominates quantity" characteristic [1][3] Group 2 - The distribution of remaining maturities shows a significant long-term characteristic, with 37.79% of ABS having a remaining maturity of over 10 years, aligning with the long return cycle of underlying assets [1][3] - The rating structure is highly concentrated in AAA (77.87%) and AA+ (17.73%) ratings, with low-rated products accounting for less than 2%, indicating high credit quality of issuers [1][3][33] Group 3 - The main types of underlying assets are fee income rights (56%) and debt rights (40%), with real estate accounting for only 4% [2][3] - The eastern coastal regions dominate the market, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong provinces accounting for over 60% of the outstanding balance, reflecting strong economic strength and low debt ratios [2][3] Group 4 - In 2024, the total issuance of ABS reached 2.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.87%, with urban investment issuance only 13.082 billion yuan, accounting for less than 1% [3][4] - The market activity is recovering in 2025, with transaction volume exceeding that of the same period in 2024, and turnover rate rebounding to 16.91% [3][4]
固收深度报告20250604:结构化融资再观察:城投ABS市场回顾与前瞻(市场篇)
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-04 13:55
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current urban investment ABS market is dominated by enterprise ABS products, with a small amount of ABN products as a supplement. The weighted average coupon rate of urban investment ABS products is relatively low in the overall credit bond market, showing obvious interest rate stratification characteristics. The market presents a medium - and long - term trend, with AAA and AA+ rated products as the main ones. The underlying assets are mainly charge - based ABS and debt - based ABS. The participation of urban investment platforms in the eastern coastal areas is relatively high, and the issuance subjects are highly concentrated in industries [1][20][22]. - The ABS market's trading activity is in the process of recovery, with increased market demand, enhanced investor confidence, and improved market liquidity. There is a "duration inversion" phenomenon in the spread compression space of urban investment ABS, and the 2Y product may be the curve convex point. Different investment styles of investors can choose different types of urban investment ABS products according to their risk preferences, but attention should be paid to the potential liquidity risk caused by the small overall scale of urban investment ABS [3][48][50]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Overview of China's Asset - Backed Securities Market - The asset - securitization market in China has formed a relatively mature system, which can be classified by underlying asset types and issuance markets and regulatory agencies. With market development, the types of ABS are diversifying, and new products such as consumer finance ABS, intellectual property ABS, and green ABS are emerging. The scale of ABS is expected to continue to grow [11]. - In 2024, the total issuance of asset - backed securities increased year - on - year, mainly due to increased policy support, rising demand for盘活 existing assets, and restored market confidence. The issuers are mainly industrial entities, and the issuance scale of urban investment entities is relatively small [12][13]. 2. Current Situation and Structural Characteristics of the Urban Investment ABS Market 2.1. Structure of Outstanding Urban Investment ABS Bond Types and Coupon Rate Distribution - The urban investment ABS market is dominated by enterprise ABS, with a small amount of ABN products. As of May 11, 2025, the outstanding balance of urban investment platform - issued ABS was 339.64 billion yuan, accounting for about 2% of the total. The weighted average coupon rate of urban investment ABS products is about 3.25%, about 42BP lower than that of outstanding urban investment bonds. Low - coupon products are dominant in scale, while high - coupon products are more in quantity, reflecting the game between supply and demand in the market [20][22][23]. 2.2. Distribution of Remaining Maturity and Rating Structure of Outstanding Urban Investment ABS - The urban investment ABS market shows obvious medium - and long - term characteristics, with the remaining maturity concentrated in the medium - and long - term. As of May 11, 2025, the outstanding balance of products with a remaining maturity of more than 10 years was the largest. The products are mainly rated AAA and AA+, indicating that the overall credit quality of the issuing subjects is excellent, and the default risk is controllable. However, the actual underlying asset quality may deviate from the bond rating, and some AA+ marginal subjects may face rating adjustment pressure [27][28]. 2.3. Distribution of Underlying Asset Types of Outstanding Urban Investment ABS - Charge - based ABS and debt - based ABS dominate the market. As of May 11, 2025, their outstanding balances were 191.39 billion yuan and 134.96 billion yuan respectively. The underlying assets of charge - based ABS are mainly infrastructure charge rights and shed renovation/affordable housing bonds, while the underlying assets of debt - based ABS are mainly commercial real estate mortgages, supplemented by corporate accounts receivable and financial leasing claims. Real estate - based ABS has relatively low market acceptance [32][35][37]. 2.4. Distribution of Regions and Industries of Issuing Subjects of Outstanding Urban Investment ABS - Urban investment platforms in the eastern coastal areas have a relatively high degree of participation in the ABS market, with rich product types, strong market liquidity, and low default risk. In contrast, the ABS market in the central and western regions is relatively small in scale, and the issuance and trading rely on external credit enhancement measures or policy support. In terms of industries, the issuing subjects of urban investment ABS are highly concentrated, with those in the building decoration industry leading in outstanding balance, followed by those in the public utilities and real estate industries [40][43]. 3. Investment Value Analysis of Urban Investment ABS 3.1. Transaction Performance - Since the beginning of 2023 to mid - May 2025, the trading volume and turnover rate of the ABS market first declined and then increased, indicating that the market's trading activity is in the process of recovery, with increased market demand, enhanced investor confidence, and improved market liquidity [46][48]. 3.2. Valuation and Credit Spread Performance - The credit spread of outstanding urban investment ABS shows a trend of first rising and then falling with the lengthening of duration, with a "duration inversion" phenomenon. The spread of 2Y products is about 10 - 20BP higher than that of other maturities. Compared with urban investment bonds, the spreads of urban investment ABS of different maturities are higher, and the short - end products have more significant return space. The 2Y product may be the curve convex point. For different investment styles, investors can choose different types of urban investment ABS products according to their risk preferences, but they should be vigilant against potential liquidity risks [49][50][57].