2026年一开年，市场就传来重磅消息：1月9日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室宣布，依据 《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况开展调查、评估。 是问题，也是期待。这些从身边蹦出来的问号，和它们所承载的美好愿望，或许正是观察新一年消费市 场最好的起点。咱们就顺着这些线索，展望一个与你我钱包和幸福感息息相关的2026年。 同日，市场监管总局发布了2025年综合整治"内卷式"竞争十大制度建设成果；财政部、国家税务总局宣 布自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 外卖大战还会接着打吗？ 紧接着，1月14日，市场监管总局宣布，依据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对携程集团有限公司涉嫌 滥用市场支配地位实施垄断行为立案调查。 1月27日，市场监管总局又发布2025年综合整治"内卷式"竞争十大重大案件，包括深圳罗马仕科技有限 公司违反强制性产品认证规定及虚假宣传案，山西老葛商贸有限公司虚假宣传、价格欺诈系列案等。 消息密集登场，消费者心中难免有几个问号：新的一年里，曾经让我们"薅"得那么开心的外卖大战，会 熄火吗？"卷"得飞起的各行各业，能喘口气了吗？经历了预制菜风波，平时点个外卖、 ...

2026年一开年，市场就传来重磅消息：1月9日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室宣布，依据 《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况开展调查、评估。 同日，市场监管总局发布了2025年综合整治"内卷式"竞争十大制度建设成果；财政部、国家税务总局宣 布自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 紧接着，1月14日，市场监管总局宣布，依据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对携程集团有限公司涉嫌 滥用市场支配地位实施垄断行为立案调查。 1月27日，市场监管总局又发布2025年综合整治"内卷式"竞争十大重大案件，包括深圳罗马仕科技有限 公司违反强制性产品认证规定及虚假宣传案，山西老葛商贸有限公司虚假宣传、价格欺诈系列案等。 消息密集登场，消费者心中难免有几个问号：新的一年里，曾经让我们"薅"得那么开心的外卖大战，会 熄火吗？"卷"得飞起的各行各业，能喘口气了吗？经历了预制菜风波，平时点个外卖、下个馆子，心里 能踏实点吗？尝过了景德镇鸡排，喝过了卡旺卡奶茶，买够了拉布布，我们还能找到啥新乐趣？ 是问题，也是期待。这些从身边蹦出来的问号，和它们所承载的美好愿望，或许正是观察新一年消费市 场最好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent investigation into Ctrip for alleged monopolistic practices serves as a warning to all platform enterprises, highlighting the ongoing tightening of regulations in China's platform economy [2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Investigations - As of December 17, 2025, China has handled 35 cases of monopoly agreements and 25 cases of abuse of market dominance, with total fines amounting to 2.93 billion yuan [4]. - Ctrip is under investigation for suspected abuse of market dominance, with the company stating it will cooperate with the investigation [2]. - The National Market Supervision Administration has emphasized the need for continuous regulation of platform economies, with key tasks for 2026 including strengthening regular oversight and ensuring compliance [2]. Group 2: Impact on Platform Enterprises - Ctrip may face operational adjustments, confiscation of illegal gains, and substantial fines, estimated between 533 million to 5.33 billion yuan based on its 2024 revenue of 53.3 billion yuan [3]. - The investigation serves as a critical reminder for all platform enterprises to abandon monopolistic practices and ensure transparency and fairness in transactions [3]. Group 3: Broader Regulatory Framework - The Chinese government has been enhancing its antitrust framework, with recent statistics showing a significant increase in enforcement actions against monopolistic practices [4][6]. - New regulations, such as the "Internet Platform Antitrust Compliance Guidelines," aim to delineate compliance boundaries and encourage self-assessment among platform operators [6]. - The government is also focusing on addressing "involutionary" competition, which is characterized by low-quality, low-price competition that disrupts market efficiency [4][6]. Group 4: Specific Industry Regulations - The food delivery platform sector is under scrutiny, with new national standards introduced to regulate competition and address issues like excessive subsidies and price wars [4]. - The Market Supervision Administration is conducting evaluations of the competitive landscape in the food delivery industry to mitigate monopolistic risks and ensure market order [4]. Group 5: Responsibilities of Platform Enterprises - Platform enterprises are seen as key players in the regulatory landscape, with a need for clear delineation of responsibilities in various scenarios [10][11]. - New regulations will require platform operators to fulfill obligations related to product information disclosure and quality monitoring, reinforcing their role as market order maintainers and consumer rights protectors [12].

Economic Policy - The focus on economic growth includes efforts to clear overdue corporate payments and wages, with special bonds issued to support local responsibilities[10] - The government aims to enhance housing supply to meet diverse consumer needs, emphasizing urban planning and infrastructure improvements[12] Infrastructure and Industry - Recent policies include the "AI + Manufacturing" initiative, targeting significant advancements in AI technology by 2027[11] - The government investment fund will support key strategic industries, including new energy, high-end equipment, and emerging technologies like quantum information and generative AI[11] Monetary Policy - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points and introduced a new 500 billion yuan re-lending for small and micro enterprises[14] - There is an expectation of 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, depending on economic conditions[15] Real Estate Policy - Tax incentives for home purchases have been extended, including a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial property loans to 30%[17] Consumer Policy - The government is promoting green consumption, with initiatives to support the replacement of old products with new, energy-efficient ones[18] Financial Regulation - The minimum margin requirement for financing securities has been increased from 80% to 100% for new contracts, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investors[21] Trade Policy - Adjustments to export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will take effect from April 1, 2026, with a reduction in the VAT rebate rate from 9% to 6%[25] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. Federal Reserve indicates that interest rates are nearing a neutral level, with future policy adjustments dependent on economic data[27] Risk Warning - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with potential underperformance in the execution of domestic policies[31]

Core Viewpoint - Recent actions in antitrust regulation highlight the increasing scrutiny of market competition, particularly in the online service sector, with a focus on platforms like Ctrip and the implications of monopolistic practices [2][3]. Group 1: Antitrust Investigations - The State Council's Antitrust and Unfair Competition Committee is conducting an investigation into the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform service industry [2]. - Ctrip is under investigation for allegedly abusing its market dominance, following previous fines imposed on Alibaba Group and Meituan for similar monopolistic behaviors [3]. Group 2: Impact of Monopolistic Practices - Monopolistic behavior is identified as a driver of "involution" and a barrier to innovation, forcing platform merchants into price wars to gain visibility [4]. - The investigation into Ctrip is seen as a response to complaints from merchants regarding unfair pricing practices and unreasonable transaction conditions [4]. Group 3: Importance of Antitrust Measures - Antitrust regulations are essential for maintaining a healthy market ecosystem, allowing diverse business entities to thrive and contribute to public welfare [5]. - Effective antitrust enforcement is necessary to prevent monopolies from distorting resource allocation and harming both businesses and consumers [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Strategies - While hefty fines serve as a deterrent, the focus should be on addressing the root causes of monopolistic behavior to prevent ongoing issues in the digital economy [6]. - The regulatory approach should adapt to the challenges posed by digital platforms, ensuring fair competition and transparency in operations [6]. Group 5: Future Directions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes strengthening antitrust enforcement and addressing "involution-style" competition to promote win-win development among platform enterprises and their stakeholders [7]. - Antitrust efforts are framed not as restrictions on platform companies but as protections for the platform economic environment, encouraging long-term stability and growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the tension between high profits in the platform economy and regulatory risks, particularly focusing on Ctrip's recent antitrust investigation, which underscores the increasing scrutiny of platform companies in China [1][3]. Group 1: Ctrip's Financial Performance and Regulatory Challenges - Ctrip's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 29.1 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, which translates to approximately 1 billion yuan in daily earnings, surpassing the total profits of the A-share tourism sector [1]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has initiated an investigation into Ctrip for alleged abuse of market dominance, with potential fines reaching up to 10% of the previous year's sales if violations are confirmed [1][6]. - Ctrip holds a dominant market share of 56% in China's domestic travel market, significantly higher than competitors such as Tongcheng Travel (15%), Meituan (13%), and Fliggy (8%) [3]. Group 2: Broader Regulatory Landscape - The recent antitrust investigations reflect a systemic approach to regulating the platform economy, moving from case-specific actions to a comprehensive industry assessment [3][4]. - The SAMR has released guidelines to address antitrust compliance in the platform economy, identifying typical risk scenarios such as below-cost sales and "choose one from two" practices [4]. - The regulatory focus aims to shift platform companies from zero-sum competition to a healthier ecosystem that benefits merchants, workers, and consumers [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Strategic Adjustments - Following the announcement of the investigation, Ctrip's stock price fell approximately 7% on the day of the news and further declined nearly 20% the next day, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 70 billion HKD [3][6]. - Other platform giants are adjusting their strategies in response to the tightening regulatory environment, with companies like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com exploring differentiated competition in the food delivery sector [5]. - Ctrip's challenges may create opportunities for competitors such as Meituan and Tongcheng Travel to capture market share from Ctrip as it navigates regulatory scrutiny [7]. Group 4: Long-term Implications for the Industry - The ongoing regulatory actions are expected to reshape the competitive landscape, providing more space for innovators and new entrants while promoting healthier market dynamics [8]. - Investors are advised to shift their focus from user growth and market share to compliance capabilities, profit quality, and ecosystem health in evaluating platform companies [8]. - The regulatory journey for platform economies is anticipated to continue, with further actions likely against other companies, prompting a reevaluation of core competitive strengths in a more equitable market environment [8].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The downstream industry is showing signs of recovery, and attention should be paid to foreign trade policy adjustments [1] - The upstream energy prices have slightly corrected, agricultural egg prices have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metal prices of aluminum and nickel have continued to rise [3] - In the midstream, PX prices are at a high level while polyester operating rates are low, and power plant coal consumption has decreased [4] - Downstream, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have rebounded beyond seasonality, and the number of domestic flights has continued to increase [5] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Middle - view Event Overview Production Industry - On January 12, regarding China's export of rare earths to Japan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that relevant measures are taken in accordance with laws and regulations [1] - Also on January 12, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products believes that the "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on Chinese electric vehicles is conducive to the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain [1] Service Industry - The State Administration for Market Regulation will conduct an investigation and evaluation on the market competition of the food delivery platform service industry due to issues such as subsidy and price competition [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices have slightly corrected [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices have rebounded significantly [3] - Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum and nickel prices have continued to rise [3] Midstream - Chemical industry: PX prices are high, and polyester operating rates are low [4] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption has decreased [4] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have rebounded beyond seasonality [5] - Service: The number of domestic flights has continued to increase [5] 3. Key Industry Price Indicators - On January 12, prices of various products showed different trends, such as a 7.20% year - on - year increase in egg prices, a 4.49% increase in aluminum prices, and a 3.14% increase in WTI crude oil prices [38]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying its efforts to combat unfair competition and monopolistic practices in the food delivery platform industry, aiming to create a fair market environment and protect consumer rights [2][3]. Group 1: Government Actions - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee has announced an investigation into the competitive conditions of the food delivery platform service industry due to issues like excessive subsidies and price wars [2][3]. - The government emphasizes the need to eliminate monopolistic behaviors in the livelihood sector, reflecting a commitment to maintaining fair competition [2]. Group 2: Market Concerns - There are significant concerns regarding the current practices in the food delivery market, including the use of algorithms to manipulate competition and the blending of platform and merchant subsidies, which distorts market preferences [3]. - The expectation is that the investigation will address these competitive irregularities and help establish a fair competition order in the market [3]. Group 3: Enforcement and Governance - There is a need for transparent administrative enforcement processes to minimize misunderstandings and concerns among market participants, ensuring that legitimate rights are protected without infringing on others [4]. - The enforcement of anti-unfair competition and anti-monopoly laws should be regulatory rather than intrusive, maintaining a balance between protecting market transactions and respecting individual rights [4]. Group 4: Market Autonomy - Strengthening market autonomy is essential, with suggestions to introduce collective litigation and other mechanisms to empower consumers in defending their rights at lower costs [5]. - The investigation into the food delivery industry is seen as a careful and data-driven approach to understanding competitive dynamics and informing future policy and enforcement actions [5].

Group 1 - The State Council is conducting an investigation and assessment of the market competition status in the food delivery platform service industry, emphasizing the need for platforms to comply with antitrust regulations and promote healthy competition [2] - Five departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have issued guidelines requiring new renewable energy generation projects to achieve a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% [3] - Kuaishou announced a crackdown on AI-modified classic films and animations, starting from January 1, 2026, to maintain content integrity [4] Group 2 - TSMC reported a 31.6% year-on-year increase in consolidated revenue for 2025, with total revenue for the year reaching approximately NT$3.81 trillion [7] - The China Passenger Car Association reported that retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.809 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [8] - The global humanoid robot market is expected to see exponential growth, with AGIBOT leading in shipments and market share [9] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will launch six new stock option categories on January 19, expanding the stock options market [10] - Cainiao has become the first logistics company to provide G2G services across three continents, launching cross-border logistics services between the U.S. and Mexico [11] - Hainan Airlines addressed an issue regarding abnormal ticket prices due to a temporary system failure, assuring that all sold tickets remain valid [12] Group 4 - Elon Musk's xAI plans to invest over $20 billion in building a data center in Mississippi, highlighting the growing interest in data center infrastructure [13] - NVIDIA has appointed a Google Cloud executive as Chief Marketing Officer to enhance its brand influence [14] - Hyundai has begun mass production of an AI chip for autonomous robots, enabling them to operate without external network connections [15] Group 5 - Li Auto is deepening its overseas collaboration with Alibaba Cloud, focusing on global expansion in Central Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Asia-Pacific [16] - Volvo is recalling over 413,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to rearview camera issues, marking the second recall for the same problem [17] - Apple is accelerating the selection process for a new CEO, with John Ternus emerging as the leading candidate [18] Group 6 - Glencore has confirmed that it is in preliminary talks with Rio Tinto regarding a potential business merger, which may involve a full stock merger [19] - A report from the Halle Institute indicates that the number of bankruptcy applications by German companies reached a 20-year high in 2025, reflecting ongoing structural pressures in the economy [20] Group 7 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved Shenglong Mining's application for an initial public offering on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [21] - PhotonPay has completed a multi-million dollar Series B financing round led by IDG Capital [22]

Market Data - As of January 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.92% to 4120.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.15% to 14120.15 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.77% to 3327.81 points, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 31,227 billion yuan [1] - In the US market on January 9, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.48% to 49,504.07 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.65% to 6,966.28 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81% to 23,671.35 points [1] Regulatory Updates - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced a revised "Complaint Handling Measures" effective April 15, which clarifies the jurisdiction for complaints against online store operators and live streaming platforms [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized eight key areas for the national business system to focus on by 2026, including boosting consumption and developing digital, green, and health consumption [2] - The National Health Insurance Administration is launching a pilot program for "Personal Medical Insurance Cloud" from February to December, aiming to create a smart healthcare management model [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is committed to deepening investment and financing reforms to enhance the capital market's quality and growth [2] Fund Management - New regulations on fund sales fees will take effect on January 1, 2027, prohibiting fund managers from charging subscription fees and requiring a "pay first, refund later" model for sales service fees [4] - Fund managers must complete adjustments to ensure fair treatment of investors by merging fund shares and standardizing fee rates by the deadline [4] Market Investigations - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee is investigating the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform industry due to issues like price wars and market saturation [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is investigating abnormal stock price fluctuations of Ningbo Tianpu Rubber Technology Co., Ltd., which has raised market concerns [7] New Stock Offerings - Two new stocks are scheduled for subscription this week: Aisheren (920050.BJ) on Monday and Hengyun Chang (688785.SH) on Friday [8][9]