中國電信（0728） 更新報告 買入 2026 年 4 月 1 日 派息分紅比率持續提高，AI 時代下向 Token 經營轉型 ➢ 風險提示：AIDC 和雲業務發展不及預期，ARPU 值下降及競爭加劇等。 羅凡環 852-2532 1539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 | 行業 | 電訊服務 | | --- | --- | | 股價 | 4.8 港元 | | 目標價 | 6.0 港元 | | | （+26%） | | 股票代碼 | 728.HK | | 已發行股本 | 915.07 億股 | | 市值 | 4400 億港元 | | 52 周高/低 | 6.3/4.8 港元 | | 每股淨現值 | 5.6 港元 | | 主要股東 | 中國電信集團：63.9% | | | 廣晟控股集團有限公 | | | 司：5.2% | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Company Recommendations - China Telecom (0728) is recommended for purchase with a target price of 6.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15.0% from the current price of 5.65 HKD [2][11] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,976 points, with a year-to-date increase of 29.50% [4] - The market is currently observing a short-term support level around 25,000 points, influenced by the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and the economic outlook in China [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Telecom reported a slight revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with service revenue growing by 0.9% [7] - EBITDA increased by 4.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 5.0% year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025, revenue slightly declined by 0.9% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 0.5% [7] Cloud Services - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud is in a transitional phase, with revenue growth slowing down; however, AI-driven smart computing services saw a significant increase of 62.3% year-on-year [8][9] - The company did not disclose Tianyi Cloud's revenue for Q3 2025, but it reported 57.3 billion RMB in revenue for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year growth [8] Government Policies and Economic Outlook - The government is expected to encourage the application of AI-related cloud computing technologies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which may benefit China Telecom's cloud business [9] - The anticipated rise in Chinese government bond yields is expected to be limited, making China Telecom a relatively attractive high-dividend stock choice [10] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for China Telecom are as follows: 5,342.9 billion RMB for FY25 and 5,466.6 billion RMB for FY26 [11] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 349.6 billion RMB for FY25 and 370.2 billion RMB for FY26 [11]