证券研究报告：计算机|点评报告 | 收盘点位 | | 5425.46 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5841.52 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3966.07 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:李佩京 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080003 Email:lipeijing@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 发布时间：2026-01-09 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 《技术与资本共振，国产大模型护航 AI 应用浪潮》 - 2026.01.05 大厂需求加速，字节 AIDC 和算力链有望 ...

【环球网科技报道 记者 林迪】2025年，人工智能正从技术探索迈向规模化落地的关键拐点。企业对AI 的需求已不再局限于单一的算力供给，而是转向"数据—算力—模型—应用"全链路的智能支撑。在这一 深刻变革中，传统数据中心（IDC）正加速向人工智能数据中心（AIDC）演进，成为推动新质生产力 发展的核心基础设施。在此背景下，北电数智以"AI工厂"理念为核心，构建起面向产业未来的AIDC范 式，正在重新定义算力的价值与边界。 从资源中心到 " 能力中心 " "AI产业规模化落地的核心需求是'无感化用AI'。"北电数智首席技术官谢东告诉记者，"这正是AIDC从 资源中心转向能力中心的核心逻辑。"在他看来，真正的AIDC不应只是算力的堆砌，而应是一个能够持 续输出智能产出的生产系统。 据介绍，这一理念在佛山南海桂城智算中心得到了实践。 作为北电数智首个镇街级智算中心，该项目通过深入对接当地多家AI生态企业与工业企业，精准把握 千行百业的实际需求，实现了"算力跟着产业需求走"的按需供给模式。这种"智能调度+生态链接"的机 制，有效解决了长期存在的"算力供需错配"问题。 "我们不是单纯提供算力，而是构建一个覆盖数据、算力、 ...

市场震荡拉升，沪指高开高走收出六连阳，深成指涨近1%。 市场热点轮动较快，全市场超4100只个股上涨。 盘面上，商业航天概念持续爆发，2 0余只成分股涨停， 算力硬件延续强势，液冷、PCB等细分表现亮眼。 当前A股增量资金抢跑春季行情意愿较强烈， 后续除可能的1月业绩预告扰动外，利空因素能见度不高，可顺应抢跑，逢低布 局。 而从历史经验显示，全年或四季度涨幅靠前板块在当年末次年初期间超额收益大概率回落，相反，涨幅靠后板块则有补涨需求。 短期政策催化+安全边际驱动下，内需板块具备足够赔率吸引力，且胜率在上升，叠加岁末年初行业配置规律、人民币汇率趋势 和提振内需政策取向，部分内需板块或具备一定持续性，重视程度上移。 重点关注：保险、券商、有色、AI算力/半导体、零售/美护/社服/乳品、航空、新能源等。 02北美AI缺电信号明确 北美整体电力缺口大，AIDC需求增长进一步加剧缺口，传统快速补能受限， AIDC配储具备经济性且交付快，占比有望提升。 中国银河证券电新团队认为，假设美国AIDC功耗从2025年10GW提升至2 02 8年22GW，AIDC配储需求按2 0%容量、4h系统测 算，则北美AIDC配储需求约从 ...

Core Insights - The integration of computing power and electricity, termed "算电融合" (computing-electricity integration), is emerging as an innovative model that supports the green energy-driven digital economy, particularly benefiting the artificial intelligence (AI) industry [1][2][3] - The "算电融合" initiative aims to create a new infrastructure that combines energy flow, data flow, and value flow, enhancing the synergy between green electricity and intelligent computing [1][6] - The recent Huawei summit in Heilongjiang focused on promoting this integration and fostering collaboration among various industries to drive high-quality digital economic development in the region [2][5] Group 1: Industry Development - Heilongjiang is positioning itself as a leader in the integration of computing power and electricity, leveraging its energy-rich resources to accelerate economic growth in the digital era [1][6] - The establishment of the AI-enabled digital transformation industry alliance aims to bridge the gap between technology development and industrial application, facilitating the adoption of AI across various sectors [4][6] - Huawei's commitment to innovation in computing and energy sectors is expected to enhance the stability and efficiency of green electricity supply for computing needs, supporting the development of a new green intelligent computing center in Heilongjiang [7][8] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The national strategies "东数西算" (East Data West Computing) and "算电协同" (Computing-Electricity Collaboration) present significant opportunities for Heilongjiang as a demonstration province for computing-electricity integration [7] - The summit emphasized the importance of aligning computing power projects with green electricity supply, advocating for a coordinated approach to optimize energy and computing resources [6][7] - Future collaborations and project implementations are expected to unlock the potential of computing-electricity integration and AI, driving regional industrial upgrades and contributing to the high-quality development of Northeast China [8]

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。中央经 济工作会议通稿能源强国建设规划纲要，加快新型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应用，新能源依旧是十五五 发展中心，聚焦新质生产力与反内卷，风光储、AIDC、锂电、机器人有望全面受益。 AIDC海内外共振，电网及储能筑基 我国已建成全球最大物流、电力、通信等基建网络，AI加速全面发展，电力需求日益增长，北美AI缺 电担忧逐步强化，为适应人工智能+、绿色低碳转型等趋势，保障能源安全，现代化新基建势在必行。 1）AIDC：AI军备竞赛下智算需求助推AIDC高景气，未来供配电系统向800V HVDC高压直流演进，服 务器电源量利齐升，UPS和HVDC仍将长期并行发展，高电压等级HVDC渗透率有望在未来5年实现快速 提升，固态变压器SST是未来发展趋势。AI对电力消耗大，AI缺电担忧加剧，配储需求旺盛。AI电力设 备、储能、服务器电源优先受益。2）电网：新型电力系统持续推进，风光等可再生能源装机大，电网 建设需求旺盛，特高压及主网、配网数智化延续增长态势。全球电网投资高景气，经济复苏以及AI高 速发展，叠加新能源并网以及电网更新改造 ...

Summary of Conference Call on AI Infrastructure and Related Industries Industry Overview AI Data Center (AIDC) - China's AIDC market experienced a significant surge in the second half of 2025, driven by rapid AI adoption and advancements in domestic chip technology [1][7] - ByteDance's token usage increased dramatically from 4 trillion in February to 30 trillion in September 2025 [1][7] - AIDC investments are primarily led by cloud vendors, telecom operators, and third-party firms, with construction costs ranging from RMB 17,000 to 23,000 per kW [1][8][9] - Major players like ByteDance, Tencent, and Huawei are actively pursuing new data center projects, including a notable 800MW park for ByteDance [1][10] Liquid Cooling - Liquid cooling technology in China has low adoption rates, remaining below 10% in 2025, compared to over 3,000 units deployed overseas [2][14] - The market for liquid cooling is projected to grow at a 64% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with penetration expected to rise from 10% in 2025 to 45% by 2030 [2] - Cold plate systems dominate the liquid cooling market with a 90% share, while immersion cooling faces high costs and lacks standardization [2][15] - Domestic competition is intense, leading to significant price gaps; CDU pricing ranges from US$10 to 230 per kW [2][16] Optical Fiber - China accounts for approximately 50% of global fiber demand, with projections of 260 million fiber-km domestically and 568 million globally by 2025 [3][19] - The optical cable market is expected to grow at a 5% CAGR, with a shift towards high-end products like G654E fiber and hollow-core fiber [3][20] - Profitability in the optical fiber market is concentrated upstream, with preforms contributing 70% of profits, fiber 20%, and cables only 10% [3][22] - Intense domestic competition has led to price reductions, making it challenging for smaller players to survive [3][21] Key Insights AIDC Developments - The AIDC market is rebounding due to broader AI applications across various sectors, including manufacturing and healthcare [7] - Domestic chips are being commercially deployed, although they still lag behind NVIDIA's technology [7] - The construction of training clusters in western China is part of the "Eastern Data, Western Computing" strategy [8] Liquid Cooling Market Dynamics - The domestic AI market is in an early stage of rapid growth, with server memory prices tripling [13] - Liquid cooling systems are becoming critical components of the data center value chain, with export opportunities emerging [11][18] - Future growth in liquid cooling will depend on cost reductions and advancements in microchannel technology [2][18] Optical Fiber Market Trends - The demand for fiber optic communication is projected to reach nearly 170 million fiber-kilometers in 2025 [19] - Export opportunities are concentrated in Southeast Asia, while Europe and North America present challenges due to trade barriers [20] - Emerging technologies like hollow-core fiber and multi-core fiber are expected to enhance competitiveness in the market [21] Conclusion - The AIDC, liquid cooling, and optical fiber industries are poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for AI applications. However, challenges such as intense competition and reliance on imported components may impact profitability and market dynamics in the near future.

Core Viewpoint - 德昌电机控股's stock has dropped over 5%, currently at 29.36 HKD, with a trading volume of 48.88 million HKD, following a report from Morgan Stanley indicating that the company's mid-term performance as of the end of September met expectations, but there is limited detail on new business plans, leading to a cautious market sentiment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's mid-term results for the period ending September were in line with expectations according to Morgan Stanley [1] - Citigroup noted that management expects moderate revenue growth for the second half of the fiscal year ending March 2026, with both Automotive Products (APG) and Industrial Products (IPG) segments likely to see growth [1] Group 2: Business Outlook - There is a lack of detailed disclosure regarding the progress of AIDC and robotics orders, which is expected to maintain a subdued market sentiment towards the stock [1] - Citigroup believes that significant growth momentum may not be seen until the fiscal year 2027, with the two new businesses (AI liquid cooling pumps and humanoid robot joints) projected to account for only 3% of total sales in fiscal year 2027, insufficient to justify a substantial revaluation this year [1] Group 3: Stock Valuation - The company's stock price has increased approximately 2.8 times this year, attributed to the potential of the two new businesses, although Citigroup argues that the stock is overvalued and has outpaced its fundamentals [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The storage and energy sector is experiencing a potential supercycle driven by AI demand, although consumer electronics growth is below expectations. Major global manufacturers are still expanding production, with 2026 projected as a peak year, testing whether AI demand can break the 30-year semiconductor cycle pattern [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **AI Demand and New Technologies**: The future of the storage industry hinges on sustained AI demand and support from new technologies like AIDC and HBM. The actual demand will become clearer after new products adapt to the supply chain by March 2026, potentially validating the current cycle [1][6]. - **Current Market Conditions**: Despite a shortage in 2025, the utilization rate for ordinary storage products is around 80%. The DDR5 introduction is not the main cause of shortages. The large customer market shows stable prices, while the channel market has seen significant price increases but reduced transaction volumes, indicating weak consumer market rigidity [1][7]. - **Challenges Ahead**: The main challenges for the storage industry include maintaining strong AI demand, the speed of new technology iterations, and the impact of major manufacturers' expansion plans on supply-demand balance. Effective management of these factors is crucial for healthy industry development [1][8]. - **Consumer Market Dynamics**: The consumer market shows strong but volatile demand. For instance, switching from a 1TB to a 2.5TB hard drive could halve demand. The current supercycle is causing rapid price increases due to mismatches between supply and demand [1][9]. - **China's Technological Advancements**: Chinese storage companies like Hefei Changxin and Yangtze Memory Technologies have made significant technological breakthroughs, bypassing patents and developing unique technology routes, thus entering the global supply chain [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - **AI Capital Expenditure Drivers**: The drivers of AI capital expenditure are complex, with a shift from viewing it as a military competition to a demand-driven phenomenon. The growth of cloud computing is critical, and if Kubernetes grows by 50%-60% in 2026 and maintains a 30%-40% growth rate, the supercycle will become more evident [1][18]. - **Inflation Impact**: Rising inflation affects the consumer electronics market significantly, with consumers willing to pay premiums for certain products, while demand for mobile devices may be suppressed due to limited AI attributes [1][17]. - **Future Outlook**: The supercycle for AI development is likely to be established, but it requires a significant explosion in downstream applications. Without this, the supercycle may not materialize, making downstream applications or indispensable platforms direct investment opportunities [1][26][28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the storage industry's dynamics, challenges, and the implications of AI on future growth and investment strategies.

Group 1: Economic and Fiscal Overview - The report analyzes the economic and fiscal data from various regions for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting different developmental characteristics across regions [2] - Heavy debt regions show weaker economic growth, industrial value-added, and fixed asset investment compared to non-heavy debt regions, indicating a significant disparity in performance [2] - Despite the challenges, heavy debt regions have managed to achieve a higher year-on-year growth rate in general budget revenue compared to non-key regions, while their budget expenditure growth rate is lower [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Jinpan Technology - Jinpan Technology (688676.SH) reported a revenue of 5.194 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.25% [3] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 486 million yuan, up 20.27% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 456 million yuan, increasing by 19.05% [3] - For Q3 2025, Jinpan Technology's revenue reached 2.04 billion yuan, representing an 8.38% year-on-year growth and a 12.61% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry is expected to have significant investment opportunities in the technology innovation sector by 2026, with structural opportunities arising from both domestic demand recovery and high export demand [2][5]. Group 1: Technology Innovation and AI Infrastructure - The AI infrastructure is expected to benefit from high capital expenditure and rapid technological iterations, leading to new opportunities in the mechanical sector. Overseas capital expenditure for computing power is exceeding expectations, driving demand for PCB equipment and AIDC [2][5]. - The next generation of chips, such as Rubin, may increase processing requirements for PCB, cold plates, and quick connectors, while also promoting new technologies like micro-channel liquid cooling, enhancing the value of equipment and consumables [2][5]. Group 2: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to accelerate by 2026, with a focus on leading companies expanding production. The period from 2022 to 2025 is seen as a transition from prototype to small-scale engineering, with 2026 potentially marking the year of mass production for Tesla [7]. - Attention should be given to the performance upgrades of domestic humanoid robots and the rapid development of application scenarios [7]. Group 3: Export Chain - The export chain should focus on sectors with global competitiveness, such as engineering machinery, hardware tools, motorcycles, and oil service equipment, which are expected to benefit from internationalization and reforms [3][12]. - The engineering machinery sector is seeing significant growth in exports, particularly in the U.S. due to the recent interest rate cuts, which are likely to boost demand [11]. Group 4: Specialized Equipment - Specialized equipment sectors are expected to experience turning points and technological changes, with a focus on areas like solid-state batteries and nuclear fusion, as well as segments like 3C equipment and coal machinery that are showing signs of recovery [3][15]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is projected to see a growth spurt, with domestic capital expenditure expected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [16]. Group 5: General Cyclical Opportunities - The general cyclical sector is expected to see a bottoming out, with structural opportunities emerging in areas like machine tools, injection molding machines, and industrial gases, as demand recovers [13][14]. - The demand for industrial gases is expected to improve, although there may still be pressure on gas prices [14]. Group 6: 3C Automation Equipment - The 3C automation equipment sector is anticipated to enter a hardware innovation phase in 2026, driven by new product trends such as foldable screens and AI glasses [17].