Macro Strategy - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment over a century, highlighting lessons for supply-demand rebalancing, including the long-term depression in the late 19th century in Europe and the US, the 1929 Great Depression, and Japan's capacity reduction in the 1970s and 1990s [1][6]. - Key conclusions include that capacity imbalance can lead to a negative feedback loop lasting 20-30 years if not controlled, and government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing such imbalances [1][6]. - Successful rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies [1][6]. Fixed Income - The new bond value-added tax (VAT) regulation, effective from August 8, 2025, reinstates VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, while maintaining tax exemption for bonds issued before this date [2][7]. - The adjustment is expected to enhance the relative value of credit bonds, as their interest income is not subject to VAT, making them more attractive compared to government bonds and financial bonds [2][7]. - The report estimates that the yield spread between credit bonds and other interest rate bonds will narrow by approximately 10 basis points, with potential relative value increases of 5-15 basis points for proprietary trading departments and 3-10 basis points for asset management products and public funds [2][7]. Industry Analysis Hewei Electric (603063) - The company reported a revenue of 1.884 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.39%, with a net profit of 243 million yuan, up 56.79% [4][10]. - The growth is driven by the new energy control business, which generated 1.524 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 44.97% increase year-on-year [4][10]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits of 590 million, 710 million, and 820 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 31, 25, and 22 times [4][10]. Tonghui Electronics (833509) - The company achieved a revenue of 101 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 16.81% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 29 million yuan, up 55.40% [5][12]. - The growth is attributed to the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy and the gradual recovery of domestic industrial demand, particularly in the consumer electronics and new energy sectors [5][12]. - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 71 million, 87 million, and 106 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's long-term growth potential [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced structural growth in demand within the consumer electronics and new energy sectors, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 55% year-on-year in H1 2025 [2] - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 101 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.81%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 29 million yuan, up 55.40% year-on-year [2] - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the implementation of the new "old-for-new" policy and the gradual recovery of domestic industrial product demand, particularly in testing needs for consumer electronics and new energy [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue was 61 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.74% and a year-on-year increase of 57.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 19 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34.08% and a year-on-year increase of 95.31% [2] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 improved by 2.11 percentage points to 57.69%, while the net profit margin increased by 7.31 percentage points to 29.11% [2] Business Segments - The revenue from component parameter testing instruments increased by 9.14% year-on-year to 45 million yuan, accounting for 45% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 65.04% [3] - The revenue from safety wire testing instruments rose by 10.74% year-on-year to 23 million yuan, representing 22.54% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 43.93% [3] - The weak signal detection instruments benefited from increased demand in the semiconductor industry, with revenue growing by 37.59% year-on-year to 20 million yuan, accounting for 19.84% of total revenue, and a gross margin of 57.25% [3] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has continuously optimized its product structure and introduced competitive new products, moving towards the mid-to-high-end market. In 2024, it plans to launch seven new products, including battery pack internal resistance testing systems and modular wire harness testing systems [4] - The company has sufficient production capacity, with the new factory capable of producing 65,000 sets of intelligent electronic measuring instruments annually, effectively overcoming capacity bottlenecks [4] - The company plans to invest 100,000 euros to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Munich, Germany, to enhance its market share in Europe and expand overseas business [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Tonghui Electronics [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in performance with a net profit growth of 125.39% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by the recovery in consumer electronics demand [3] - The company is focusing on high-intensity R&D investments, launching multiple new products, and has a rich patent reserve, which is expected to enhance its market competitiveness [3] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to grow by 21.81%, 20.42%, and 21.96% respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 193.95 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.54%, and a net profit of 50.34 million yuan, up 30.46% [4][6] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 39.09 million yuan, reflecting a 23.84% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.92 million yuan, marking a 125.39% growth [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 56.82%, and the net margin was 25.12%, indicating stable profitability levels [3] Product and Market Development - The company has launched several new products targeting the fields of new energy and third-generation semiconductor power device testing, which are expected to diversify its product matrix and enhance competitiveness [3] - The main products contributing to revenue growth include component parameter testing instruments and safety wire testing instruments, with significant sales growth in the South China region [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 239 million yuan, 291 million yuan, and 352 million yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 23.23%, 21.76%, and 20.96% [4][6] - The projected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 61.33 million yuan, 73.84 million yuan, and 90.05 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.81%, 20.42%, and 21.96% respectively [4][6]