鉴于超大规模数据中心运营商已公布业绩，且数据 中心的整体资本支出保持稳健，这可能支撑 博通公司 （ NASDAQ： AVGO ）在数据中心市场短期增长，因此分析师重申"强力买入"评级， 其公允价值为每股247美元。 作 者 | Lighting Rock Research 编译 | 华尔街大事件 博通的半导体解决方案业务与整体数据中心的资本支出密切相关。因此，这些超大规模数据中心 运营商的资本支出预算可能会对整体市场和博通的半导体业务增长产生重大影响。 因此，分析师对博通半导体解决方案的短期增长充满信心。该公司的定制硅片技术支撑着这些定 制的GPU产品，随着这些超大规模数据中心运营商生产更多定制硅片并将其部署到其云基础设施 中，博通将在未来几年受益于其定制硅片的投资。 预测博通在2025财年至2027财年期间的收入将增长25%，这得益于人工智能业务同比增长超过 40%，基础设施软件增长8%，以及其他半导体解决方案贡献9%的增长。从2028财年起，预计收 入增长将放缓至20%，而随着人工智能技术逐渐成熟，从2032财年起，收入增长将进一步放缓 至15%。此外，预测该公司将把8%的收入用于并购，这将为营收贡献额外 ...

Core Viewpoint - Increasing evidence suggests that AI training does not necessarily rely on high-end GPUs, which may slow down Nvidia's future growth [2][5][14] Group 1: Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia's data center business has experienced strong growth, with revenue increasing by 216% in FY2024 and 142% in FY2025 [2] - Revenue growth rates for Nvidia are projected at 63% for FY2026, driven by a 70% increase in the data center segment, alongside a recovery in gaming and automotive markets [8][9] - The company's total revenue is expected to reach $430 billion in Q1 FY2026, with a slight fluctuation of 2% [6] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Ant Group's research indicates that their 300B MoE LLM can be trained on lower-performance GPUs, reducing costs by 20%, which poses a significant risk to Nvidia's market position [2][5] - Major hyperscalers like Meta are developing their own AI training chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia's GPUs, with Meta's internal chip testing marking a critical milestone [5][14] - Custom silicon solutions from companies like Google and Amazon are emerging as attractive alternatives for AI training and inference [5] Group 3: Long-term Growth Challenges - Nvidia's high-end GPU growth may face increasing resistance as AI enters the inference phase and lower-cost models become more prevalent [14] - Analysts have revised growth expectations for Nvidia's data center business, projecting a slowdown to 30% growth in FY2027 and further declines to 20% from FY2028 to FY2030 [8][9] - The company's operating expenses are expected to grow by 19% from FY2028 to FY2030, impacting profit margins [9] Group 4: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with a projected 46% year-over-year growth in 2025, which may boost demand for Nvidia's GPUs in the short term [12][13] - Nvidia has established its own custom ASIC division, potentially mitigating risks from competitors like Broadcom and Marvell [14]