Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the e-commerce sector, particularly focusing on companies like Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo, as they are expected to benefit from the extended promotional periods and simplified shopping experiences during the Double 11 sales event [4][10][11]. Core Insights - The 2025 Double 11 e-commerce promotion has entered a phase of intensive launch, characterized by extended periods and simplified gameplay, with platforms like Douyin leading with a 57-day promotional cycle [7][10]. - Major e-commerce platforms are adopting a "direct discount" model, replacing complex rules with straightforward pricing strategies to enhance consumer experience and decision-making efficiency [10][11]. - The report highlights the importance of immediate retail as a focal point for competition during the Double 11 event, indicating a shift in consumer demand and shopping behavior [4][10]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Promotion Overview - The report outlines the promotional timelines for major platforms, with JD.com starting on October 9 and Douyin launching its campaign on September 16, marking the longest promotional period in the industry [7][10]. - Each platform has tailored its promotional strategies, such as Taobao's "official discount" and JD.com's cancellation of pre-sale phases, to streamline the shopping process for consumers [11][15]. Market Performance - During the period from October 6 to October 10, 2025, the retail index fell by 0.40%, ranking 20th among the Shenwan first-level industries, while the social service index decreased by 1.01%, ranking 24th [4][21]. - The report notes significant fluctuations in individual stock performances within the retail sector, with Alibaba experiencing a decline of 15.43% during this period [30][31]. Company Strategies - Taobao/Tmall has introduced a 30 billion yuan live-streaming red envelope initiative to attract consumers, while JD.com focuses on direct discounts across all categories, offering a minimum of 15% off [10][11]. - Douyin's strategy includes a combination of direct discounts and promotional coupons, aiming to stimulate consumer purchasing intentions [15][16]. - Xiaohongshu has implemented a unified discount policy of at least 15% across all categories, enhancing user experience and reducing merchant pressure [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce companies that are actively investing in AI and immediate retail markets, as well as consumer brands that cater to emotional consumption needs [4][10].

Group 1 - Jihong Co., Ltd. expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55-65% [1] - The company's Q3 net profit is projected to be 91-104 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 47-68% [1] - The strong performance is driven by dual main businesses: cross-border e-commerce and packaging, benefiting from market expansion and brand development [1] Group 2 - The cross-border e-commerce segment leverages AI algorithms for precise customer targeting, creating a "goods find people" model distinct from traditional platforms [1] - The packaging business enhances operational efficiency through long-term partnerships with industry leaders and experiences a surge in demand due to the food-grade packaging needs from the food delivery sector [1] - The company is positioned for high-quality growth through digitalization and globalization strategies in both main business areas [1] Group 3 - The retail sector index reported a decline of 4.32% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.21% [7] - Among retail sub-sectors, the branded cosmetics segment experienced the smallest decline, while the watch and jewelry sector has been leading since the beginning of 2025 [7] - Notable stock performances include Ningbo Zhongbai (+24.7%), Jihong Co., Ltd. (+16.7%), and Xinghui Co., Ltd. (+10.5%) [7]