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小鹏Mona受益标的梳理
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - The conference call primarily focused on **Xpeng Motors** and its new model **Mona** [1][2] Core Points and Arguments - **Pricing and Market Expectations**: The pricing for the Mona model was significantly above market expectations, with an anticipated price around **RMB 155,800** [1] - **Sales Performance**: Initial sales figures indicated approximately **12,000 units** sold within the first hour of launch, with the Max version accounting for **83%** of sales [2] - **Sales Forecast**: Xpeng's total sales for Q2 are projected to be between **100,000 to 110,000 units**, while the Mona model is expected to achieve **210,000 units** in annual sales [2] - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The supply chain, particularly **Bojun Technology**, is highlighted for its flexibility and significant profit potential, with a projected single vehicle value of **RMB 3,500** for the Mona model [3] - **Client Structure**: Bojun's client base includes **Li Auto** (25% share) and **Geely** (15% share), with expectations of increased revenue from new electric vehicle models [4] - **Financial Projections for Bojun**: The revenue forecast for Bojun is between **RMB 5.5 billion to 6.7 billion**, with profits estimated at **RMB 736 million to 885 million** [5] - **Growth Potential**: Bojun is expected to maintain a **43-40% compound annual growth rate**, suggesting a valuation of around **17-18 times** earnings [6] Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Material Trends**: The use of **magnesium alloys** is noted for its cost-effectiveness and weight advantages over aluminum, which could enhance profitability for companies like **Xingren Zhaomei** [7][8] - **Production Capacity**: The production capacity for Bojun is currently high, indicating strong demand and potential for future growth [4][6] - **Strategic Partnerships**: There are strong ties between Xpeng and its suppliers, which may lead to collaborative opportunities in future vehicle features and technologies [9][10]
博俊科技:25Q1业绩超预期,核心客户放量叠加规模效应凸显-20250420
Xinda Securities· 2025-04-20 00:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, driven by increased sales from core clients such as Xiaopeng and Leap Motor, with Xiaopeng Mona selling 47,000 units and Leap Motor delivering 91,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 170.4% [2] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from scale effects, with Q4 2024 gross margin at approximately 30.22%, a year-on-year increase of about 2.08 percentage points, and net margin at approximately 17.98%, a year-on-year increase of about 3.88 percentage points [2] - The company possesses comprehensive technical reserves, sufficient capacity layout, and significant cost advantages, indicating strong long-term growth potential [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.3-1.6 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30%-60% [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.76 billion yuan, 7.95 billion yuan, and 9.94 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 830 million yuan, 1.09 billion yuan, and 1.41 billion yuan [3] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.98 yuan, 2.60 yuan, and 3.35 yuan, with P/E ratios of 13 times, 10 times, and 7 times, respectively [2][3]