文丨螺旋实验室 追命 编辑丨坚果 蔚来汽车CEO李斌站在聚光灯下，身后是蔚来今年最重要的一款产品——乐道L90，这不仅是蔚来冲刺今年四季度盈利的关键，也是公司扭转亏损败局的 重要砝码。 李斌一个人撑起了长达三小时的马拉松式的发布会，外界甚至调侃，这不仅是蔚来的新车发布会，还是蔚来的财务危机说明会。 开年以后，蔚来一直走在悬崖边上。上半年，蔚来旗下各品牌累计交付11.4万辆，但与全年44万辆的目标仍相去甚远，本该承担走量任务的乐道L60也没 能迎来预期的"爆单"。 新能源汽车市场格局全面洗牌，蔚来的品牌势能也被同行不断追赶，在这场不断加速的淘汰赛中，李斌已经没有太多的试错空间，而乐道L90，也将可能 是其扭转乾坤的最后底牌。 1、蔚来急需一个爆款 李斌真的拼了。乐道L90定位为大型家庭SUV，其整车购买预售价为27.99万元起，电池租用购买预售价为19.39万元起，远低于市场预期的30-35万元区 间。 虽然蔚来并没有公布乐道L90的订单情况，但据李斌透露，目前L90的订单涨得很快，市场反馈达到了市场预期。 资本市场也投下了支持票，自发布会前开始，蔚来港股股价已连续多个交易日录得上涨，累计涨幅一度超过27%，创 ...

点评报告 2025 年 7 月 17 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 7 月 15 日（星期二）晚 8 点半，美国劳工部统计局公布 6 月 CPI 数据；7 月 16 日（星期三）晚 8 点半公布 6 月 PPI 数据。 证券研究报告 评论： 6 月美国未季调 CPI 同比为 2.7%，是今年 2 月以来的最高水平，预期 2.7%,前值 （5 月）为 2.4%；季调后 CPI 环比为 0.3%，是今年 1 月以来的新高，预期为 0.3%， 前值为 0.1%。 从 6 月核心 CPI 来看，未季调同比为 2.9%，预期为 3.0%，前值为 2.8%；季调后 核心环比为 0.2%，预期为 0.3%，前值为 0.1%。 6 月美国 CPI 未季调环比为 0.3%，前值为 0.2%；未季调核心 CPI 环比为 0.3%， 前值为 0.2%。从行业结构上看，食品与饮料环比为由 5 月 0.2%上升至 6 月 0.3%， 住宅由 0.3%上涨至 0.5%，医疗保健由 0.2%上涨至 0.5%，教育与通信由 0.0%上 升至 0.1%，娱乐由 0.0%上升为 0.2%，其它 ...

本文考究很细，充分考虑了异常值情况。 6个定性结论： 1. 理想L679同时间周期下维持稳态能力差不多，L8略差一点，MEGA月销变化幅度非常剧烈。 2.理想L系列维持稳态能力的确在友商中算很不错的水平。 3.截止到25年6月，小鹏P7+8个月数据与M03 10个月维持稳态的能力明显强过同时长L689, 和宽容算 法下L7一样强。 4.问界M8只有3个月数据，没有任何参考意义，不算M8，M9是鸿蒙系统内维持稳态能力最强的车 型，但弱于理想L系列同时长。 5.问界M7维持稳态的能力非常弱，即使仅考虑23年9月后的M7也属于弱的水平。 6.腾势D9维持稳态的能力非常强，强过所有L系列。鉴于腾势其他产品销量非常一般，结合结论5， 我们可以认为品牌情绪爆发都是一时的，销量都会朝着真实产品力均值回归。 备注：统计周期为23年6月-25年6月，共计37个月。 以下为细化论述： 定义： 维持稳态能力=变异系数(CV)=某个时间周期内标准差/同一周期平均月销量 当说一个车型维持稳态能力比另一个车型更强时，实际描述的是离散程度越低。 TOP2统计了30款车型从22年6月到25年6月周期内月销量数据(一位群友参与了统计工作)，车 ...

感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 大家好欢迎参加动物汽车小鹏摸纳受益标的书里目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播报名字声明动物证券研究所提醒您本次电话会议仅面向机构投资者或受邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见 均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议未经合法授权严禁录音转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利感谢您给予的理解和配合谢谢各位投资者大家早上好我是东吴汽车的郭雨萌 那今天的话我们主要是开了两场会议第一场还是围绕着小鹏蒙娜昨天晚上发的这个车黄老师也做了一个相关的一个解读大家可以看到其实整个定价上来说的话其实是非常超预期的毕竟从整个市场的一个预期的一个价格来说的话大概是在个15万5800左右的一个价格 塞里斯这一块的话这个是去年公司业绩超预期的一个核心因素塞里斯这边公司的M7的话大概配的1500M9的话大概配了3200M8的话大概配了3000占公司的整个收入比重大概12%剩下的话包括长安的8到9个点比亚迪8到9个点小鹏的这个占比的话是慢慢的就越来越多了 所以可以看到公司这两年每一年都有一个非常突出的一个客户吧像今年的问塞里斯 ...

【文/观察者网 潘昱辰 编辑/高莘】7月15日，2025新能源智能汽车新质发展论坛在吉林长春东北亚国际 会议中心举行。地平线副总裁、战略部与智驾产品规划与市场部负责人吕鹏在论坛上表示，智能化，尤 其是智能驾驶会大幅改变汽车用户的习惯和出行方式；同时，智能驾驶的发展注重于节奏，应踩准"甜 点位"。 地平线副总裁吕鹏 中国电动汽车百人会 吕鹏表示，随着中国车企在电动化的发展和布局，中国汽车产业在市场份额、技术竞争力、产业竞争力 等方面都取得长足进步。但如今汽车在电动化上的差异性已经变小，同质化更为明显。因而下半场的智 能化将成为更重要的战场，智能化尤其是智能驾驶会大幅改变汽车用户的习惯和出行方式。 在吕鹏看来，汽车智能化的普及是整个中国汽车行业合力推动的结果。当下，如果一辆车没有辅助驾驶 功能，消费者便会认为它不够智能，从而影响汽车品牌的形象。另一方面，今年上半年从比亚迪"天神 之眼"全车系推动智驾平权，到特斯拉FSD V13进入中国，都对整个行业起到巨大推动作用，并使行业 由营销驱动转向产品力驱动。 吕鹏表示，地平线征程6芯片从去年达到量产状态，到今年快速达到上车100万套的量级，依靠的是自征 程2起历代芯片积 ...

各大车企半年销量数据的披露不仅反映当下市场表现，更预示着全年目标的达成走向。 在财联社记者统计的12家主流车企年度目标完成度中，有7家车企完成年度销量目标40%以上，占比 近六成 。其中， 小鹏汽车完成度最高，达51.89%，实现"时间过半任务过半" ；虽有三大品牌"加 持"的蔚来最低，上半年仅完成全年销量目标的25.94%。 分化严重的业绩完成度，意味着车市下半年的冲刺战即将打响。 小鹏："时间过半任务过半" 同为国企集团的中国一汽和长安汽车也在整体稳步推进。中国一汽上半年累计销量157.1万辆，同比 增长6.10%，年度目标345万辆，完成率45.5%；长安汽车上半年累计销量135.5万辆，创近8年同期 新高，同比增长1.59%，年度目标300万辆，完成率45.2%。 "为达成这一目标，长安汽车计划2025年推出阿维塔06、深蓝S09、长安启源C789等13款新能源产 品，并深入布局东南亚、中南美、中东非等区域市场，导入8款产品，预计市占率升至9.4%。"长安 汽车董事长朱华荣表示，到2030年，长安汽车将进一步挑战总体销量500万辆，新能源销量350万 辆，海外销量占比30%。 新势力车企中，小米汽车和 ...

Core Insights - The sales data from major automotive companies for the first half of the year reflects current market performance and indicates the trajectory for achieving annual targets [1] - There is a significant disparity in the performance of different companies, with some achieving over 40% of their annual sales targets, while others lag behind [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors achieved the highest completion rate at 51.89%, delivering 197,189 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 279.01% [2][4] - Geely's sales reached 1,409,180 units, with a completion rate of 46.97%, and a notable growth in its new energy vehicle segment [2][5] - SAIC Motor Corporation reported a total of 2,052,608 units sold, achieving a completion rate of 45.61% [2][5] - BYD's sales reached 2,145,954 units, but its completion rate was only 39.02%, with a notable decline in domestic sales in May and June [2][9] - NIO delivered 114,150 vehicles, achieving a completion rate of 25.94%, indicating significant pressure on its annual targets [2][10] Group 2: Market Trends - The automotive market is expected to maintain healthy and stable growth, driven by new policies and a rich supply of new products [11] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that new energy vehicle sales could reach 16 million units, with new cars accounting for over 50% of total sales [11]

Group 1: Traditional Automakers Performance - BYD remains the sales leader with 2.146 million units sold in the first half of 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 33% and a strong export growth of 80.6% [2][3] - Geely Automotive shows impressive growth with a total sales of over 1.4 million units, marking a 47% year-on-year increase, and its new energy vehicle sales have doubled [3][4] - Changan Automobile reaches its highest sales in nearly eight years with 1.355 million units sold, reflecting a 2% year-on-year growth, while its new energy vehicle sales grow by 48.8% [4] - Chery Group achieves a total sales of approximately 1.26 million units, a 14.5% increase, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 98.6% [4][6] - Great Wall Motors experiences slight growth with total sales of about 569,000 units, a 1.84% increase, although some brands like Ora and Tank show declines [6] Group 2: New Forces in the Automotive Market - Leap Motor tops the new energy vehicle segment with a remarkable 155.7% growth, delivering 221,700 units, surpassing Li Auto for the first time [7][9] - Xiaomi Automotive shows significant potential with a staggering 456% growth, delivering over 150,000 units, and aims for a revised target of 350,000 units [11] - Xpeng Motors also demonstrates strong performance with a 279% increase in sales, delivering 197,200 units [10][12] - NIO achieves a 30.6% year-on-year growth with over 110,000 units delivered [12] - Huawei's AITO brand, under the new forces, faces challenges with a heavy reliance on the Wenjie brand, which accounts for 80% of its total sales [10] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The competition in the automotive market is intensifying, with a clear focus on new energy and smart technology as the main battleground [13] - Traditional and new automakers are accelerating their product and technology deployments to prepare for the second half of the year [13]

Core Viewpoint - The new energy vehicle companies such as NIO, Xpeng, and Xiaomi are collectively targeting profitability in the fourth quarter, highlighting the critical importance of achieving profitability for their survival in a competitive market [2][5][9]. Group 1: Company Plans and Financial Performance - NIO aims to achieve profitability by the fourth quarter of 2025, with a target monthly sales volume of 50,000 units, including 25,000 units from its own brand, reflecting a 20% increase from the previous year's average monthly sales of 20,000 units [3][7]. - Xiaomi's electric vehicle segment reported a revenue of 18.1 billion yuan in the first quarter, with a 10.7% quarter-on-quarter growth, and is expected to narrow its losses, aiming for profitability in the third or fourth quarter [3][9]. - Xpeng reported a record delivery of 94,008 vehicles in the first quarter, a 330.8% year-on-year increase, with total revenue reaching 15.81 billion yuan, up 141.5% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.6% [4][9]. Group 2: Strategies for Achieving Profitability - To achieve profitability, companies must focus on increasing sales volume, as seen with NIO's plan to reach 50,000 monthly sales, which is essential for revenue growth [7][9]. - Xpeng is accelerating the launch of new models to boost sales, including the MONA M03 and plans for additional models throughout the year, aiming for significant sales growth [8][13]. - NIO is implementing organizational changes and cost-cutting measures to enhance operational efficiency, with a goal of maintaining a gross margin of 17%-18% and reducing R&D and sales expenses as a percentage of revenue [11][12]. Group 3: Market Context and Competitive Landscape - The push for profitability in the fourth quarter represents a collective challenge for new energy vehicle companies, as many have struggled in a competitive market with increasing pressures from capital markets and reduced policy incentives [2][5][9]. - Successful companies in the sector have demonstrated that achieving profitability is closely linked to significant sales volume increases, as evidenced by competitors like Leap Motor [7][9]. - The fourth quarter is seen as a pivotal moment for these companies, providing an opportunity to solidify their market positions and reassure investors amid a backdrop of recent failures among new energy vehicle startups [9].

Core Insights - The June delivery data reveals strong performance from multiple automotive companies, with several exceeding 30,000 units delivered in a single month, indicating a robust mid-year assessment for the industry [1][2][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Homomotion delivered 52,747 units in June, setting a new monthly and daily sales record, with the AITO brand being a significant contributor [4] - Leap Motor achieved 48,006 units in June, marking a year-on-year growth of 138%, and has maintained a leading position in the new energy vehicle sector for three consecutive months [4][6] - Xpeng Motors delivered 34,611 units in June, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 224%, and has consistently delivered over 30,000 units for eight months [4][9] - Ideal Auto's June deliveries fell to 36,279 units, a decline of 24.06% year-on-year, attributed to market conditions and increased competition [6][9] - Deep Blue delivered 29,893 units in June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 79% [6] Group 2: Cumulative Deliveries and Targets - For the first half of the year, Leap Motor and Ideal Auto both surpassed 200,000 cumulative deliveries, with totals of 221,664 and 203,938 units respectively [2][7] - Xpeng Motors has delivered 197,189 units in the first half, achieving 52% of its annual target of 380,000 units [9] - Homomotion's cumulative deliveries reached 206,200 units, but its annual target completion rate is only about 20.6% [7] - Deep Blue's annual sales target completion rate stands at 36%, while Ideal Auto's is approximately 32% [7] Group 3: Market Trends and Expectations - The automotive market is experiencing strong retail performance, driven by promotional activities and seasonal demand, particularly following the end of the college entrance examination [3][6] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with expectations for continued growth in vehicle sales during the summer months due to increased consumer demand [3][6]