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百润股份深度报告 —— 二次增长曲线已至,如何看待百润空间
Orient Securities· 2025-06-01 07:20
Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The whiskey market in China has significant growth potential, with the current market size being only 55 billion CNY, representing a mere 0.8% of the total liquor market [13][20]. - The company has successfully localized imported products, as evidenced by its previous success in the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, and aims to replicate this success in the whiskey market [8][36]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 is 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% in 2025, 18.0% in 2026, and 26.2% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 3,634 million CNY in 2025, 4,288 million CNY in 2026, and 5,410 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. Market Analysis - The whiskey segment is projected to grow significantly, with the potential for domestic brands to capture a larger market share, aiming for a 50% domestic market penetration by leveraging local production and unique flavor profiles [37][39]. - The report highlights that the company’s whiskey products are positioned in the mass market price range, which is crucial for stimulating initial consumer interest and expanding market share [57][58]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a liquor matrix with its whiskey brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33]. - The marketing strategy focuses on experiential marketing and collaboration with local distributors to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [34][36].
百润股份(002568):积极拥抱新渠道,关注新品节奏
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-26 08:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is actively embracing new channels and focusing on the rhythm of new product launches, particularly in the instant retail sector, which is expected to drive growth [7] - The instant retail market for alcoholic beverages in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 1,000 billion by 2027, up from approximately 360 billion in 2024 [7] - The company aims to leverage the advantages of the Yima delivery platform to enhance brand recognition and reach younger consumers, thereby boosting sales of its whiskey and other alcoholic products [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 3,499 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.80% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 806.85 million in 2025, reflecting a 12.20% increase year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.77 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.23 [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company targets a revenue growth of 15% in 2025, 14% in 2026, and 18% in 2027 [7] - The net profit is expected to grow by 12% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 22% in 2027 [7] Market Position - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the instant retail market through its strategic partnerships and product offerings [7] - The introduction of new whiskey products is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's growth trajectory [7]