春节食品动销表现几何？后市如何看？20260223 摘要 春节期间，社会消费呈现强劲复苏态势，零售餐饮企业日均销售额同比 增长 8.6%，为主要长假中高增速水平。春运期间人员流动量显著增加， 节后流动量同比增速达 11.1%，途牛数据显示人均出游天数同比增加 1.1 天，达 5.9 天，反映消费意愿增强。 大众食品消费方面，企业库存清理完毕，渠道新鲜度高，经销商信心恢 复，备货充足。礼盒消费依然火热，但消费者更注重性价比，价格集中 在 50-100 元区间。下沉市场表现良好，价格折扣竞争减缓，零售终端 价格坚挺。 乳制品行业表现分化，华东和华中地区增长显著，常温液奶增长约 7%，伊利、蒙牛分别增长 8-9%和 5-6%，常温酸奶结束下跌态势，实 现正增长。华南地区表现偏弱，但渠道库存不高，高端品类保持增长， 君乐宝低温产品增速约 20%。 现制茶饮行业受益于暖冬天气和出行旺盛，同店 GMV 表现良好，蜜雪 冰城、古茗、瑞幸等品牌均有超过 10%的增长。堂食消费为主，加盟商 利润较高，外卖补贴压力有限，预计全年同店 GMV 将保持平稳。 Q&A 2026 年春节期间大众食品整体表现如何？ 2026 年春节期间， ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·食品饮料 食品饮料行业跟踪周报 从"历史经典产业"到"传统优势民生产业" ， 新五年酿酒产业提质发展 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 02 月 22 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙瑜 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 食品饮料 沪深300 2026-02-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 从"历史经典"到"优势民生"产业，再度定调酿酒产业重要地位，鼓 励高质量发展。继 2025 年 10 月工信部发布《关于推动历史经典产业高 质量发展的指导意见（2026—2030 年）（征求意见稿）》，近期工信部、 人社部、市场监管总局再度印发《酿酒产业提质升级指导意见（2026— 2030 年）》，明确定调 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·食品饮料 食品饮料行业跟踪周报 从"历史经典产业"到"传统优势民生产业" ， 新五年酿酒产业提质发展 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 02 月 22 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙瑜 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 《AI 营销：新风口剑指千亿，服务商 乘势而进》 2026-02-11 《渠道变革大时代，优质连锁零售业 态蓬勃发展》 2026-02-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 从"历史经典"到"优势民生"产业，再度定调酿酒产业重要地位，鼓 励高质量发展。继 2025 年 10 月工信部发布《关于推动历史经典产业高 质量发展的指导意见（2026—2030 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese alcoholic beverage market is projected to reach USD 254.1 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 6.63% during the forecast period [2] - The market is highly concentrated, with baijiu (Chinese liquor) expected to account for 78.57% of revenue by 2025, significantly higher than beer (11.22%) and other categories [2] Market Structure - Baijiu dominates the market, while beer is experiencing a shift towards premiumization and craft options, and low-alcohol/no-alcohol products are gaining traction among new consumer demographics [2] - The structure indicates that the base of the market is determined by baijiu, but growth and structural changes are driven by the premiumization of beer and the penetration of low-alcohol products [2] Technical Features and Product Classification - The alcoholic beverage industry is characterized by a combination of raw material systems, fermentation/distillation processes, aging systems, blending capabilities, and packaging/channel adaptation, which ultimately contribute to brand premium and price segmentation [5] - Baijiu is defined by solid-state fermentation and aging techniques, leading to high margins and strong brand characteristics, but also slower capacity ramp-up and sensitivity to inventory and pricing [5] - Beer is the most industrialized, focusing on scale and channel efficiency, with recent competition shifting towards high-end and craft products [5] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese market shows a concentration in baijiu, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye dominating the high-end segment, while regional players seek growth through local market penetration [7] - The beer market is characterized by competition among major players like Tsingtao Brewery and China Resources Snow Breweries, focusing on product upgrades and channel penetration [8] - The wine and yellow wine markets are smaller, where brand and channel efficiency are more critical than scale [9] Future Trends and Challenges - Over the next 3-5 years, the market is expected to stabilize with baijiu, while beer will focus on premiumization and low-alcohol/no-alcohol products will drive growth [17] - Challenges include consumer segmentation, price pressure, raw material cost fluctuations, and stricter regulatory requirements [20]

Group 1 - The number of year-end banquets (尾牙宴) in Fujian is significantly decreasing, with many hotels reporting no bookings at all [2][5] - The scale and standards of these banquets are shrinking, with many companies opting not to hold them or reducing their scale and specifications [4][5] - The impact of the "limit on alcohol" policy has exacerbated the situation, leading to a reported 50% reduction in corporate year-end events [2][5] Group 2 - There is a notable shift in the types of alcoholic beverages being purchased for these events, with a preference for lower-cost options and an increase in the popularity of craft beers and low-alcohol beverages [6][8] - Companies are increasingly focusing on cost-effectiveness, with many opting for cheaper wines and spirits, and a significant drop in the procurement of mid to high-end products [6][9] - The changing preferences reflect a broader trend where companies prioritize practicality over extravagance, favoring a more relaxed dining experience [9]

Macro Economic Insights - The government is intensifying efforts to clear overdue corporate payments and wages, focusing on key regions and implementing special bonds to support this initiative [6][7] - The central bank has introduced a series of monetary policies, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in relending and rediscount rates, and plans to maintain a loose monetary stance throughout 2026 [7][17] - The real estate policy includes extending tax incentives for residential property transactions and lowering the minimum down payment for commercial property loans to 30% [7] Industry Insights Computer Industry - Alibaba is fully integrating its Qianwen App into its ecosystem, enhancing its capabilities as an AI shopping assistant and potentially becoming a major entry point for AI services [50] - The launch of "Ant Health Assistant" and "Lingguang," a multimodal AI assistant, indicates Alibaba's strong positioning in the AI sector, with significant user engagement [51][52] - Investment opportunities in AI applications are highlighted, with recommendations for companies benefiting from this trend [53] Machinery Industry - The use of polyurethane TPU materials in humanoid robots is emphasized, showcasing their advantages in safety and shock absorption, which are critical for the mass production of robots [55][56] - The TPU market is expected to grow significantly due to its application in humanoid robots, with a projected market space exceeding 3 billion yuan as production scales up [58] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The regulatory environment for derivatives is becoming more transparent, which may benefit leading brokerage firms as restrictions on scale are expected to ease [6] - The financial sector is experiencing a "slow bull" phase, with positive performance in brokerage and insurance businesses [6] Chemical Industry - The polyester filament industry is entering a new round of production cuts, while the supply-demand dynamics for glyphosate are improving, leading to price increases [6] Automotive Industry - China's heavy truck sales are projected to reach 1.145 million units by 2025, indicating a robust market outlook [6] Food and Beverage Industry - Moutai is deepening market reforms, and the value of Bai Run shares is becoming more apparent, suggesting potential investment opportunities [6] Pharmaceutical Industry - The focus remains on innovative drug sectors, with continued recommendations for investment in this area [6] Trade and Export - China's exports have shown unexpected growth, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in December, driven by high-tech products and diversified markets [41][42][45]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dramatic shift in Chinese consumers' attitudes towards red wine over the past decade, highlighting a decline in its social status and desirability, leading to a significant drop in sales and interest in wine estates previously sought after by wealthy buyers [1][4][21]. Group 1: Historical Context - Ten years ago, Bordeaux vineyards were highly sought after by Chinese buyers, with some transactions reaching nearly 1 billion RMB for multiple estates in a single day [1]. - At that time, red wine was perceived as a symbol of wealth, status, and cultural sophistication, often used as a social tool in various gatherings [4][9]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - Post-2020, a new generation of consumers emerged, prioritizing authenticity and emotional satisfaction over the complex rituals associated with red wine consumption [13][15]. - The younger demographic prefers easy-to-consume beverages like fruit-flavored sparkling wines and ready-to-drink cocktails, which align better with their lifestyle and consumption habits [17]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market for red wine in China is experiencing a decline, with sales continuing to drop as consumers shift towards more accessible and less ritualistic alcoholic beverages [17][25]. - Many previously acquired wine estates are now being sold at prices lower than their purchase value, indicating a significant loss of interest and value in the red wine market [19][21]. Group 4: Cultural Shift - The decline of red wine's social value in China reflects a broader cultural shift away from status-driven consumption towards a focus on personal enjoyment and authenticity [21][23]. - This transformation suggests that consumers are moving away from using products like red wine to signify social status, instead opting for experiences and products that provide genuine happiness [27].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing significant structural adjustments, with the white liquor market experiencing slowed growth and changing consumer demands, leading to traditional marketing and product models facing bottlenecks [2][5] - Consulting firms are becoming crucial advisors for liquor companies in their transformation and upgrading processes, especially at this pivotal moment in the industry [2][5] Market Trends - The new liquor market is rapidly developing, with low-alcohol and diversified products like low-alcohol fruit wine, pre-mixed drinks, and tea wine emerging as core directions [4] - The new liquor market is projected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025, representing a significant growth area for the liquor industry amidst existing competition [4] Consumption Changes - In the first half of 2025, white liquor production was 1.9159 million kiloliters, marking a 5.8% year-on-year decline, indicating the industry is in a phase of stock competition [7] - Changes in consumer demographics and preferences are reshaping demand, with new consumption scenarios such as solo drinking, small gatherings, and outdoor leisure providing opportunities for market segmentation [7] Strategic Insights - The upcoming AIIC2025 Liquor Innovation and Investment Conference will feature insights from three consulting firms on new liquor consumption trends, demographic shifts, and the youth-oriented transformation of yellow wine [5][14] - The conference will include discussions on how to balance tradition and innovation in liquor branding to attract younger consumers, which is essential for future growth [10]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [4] Core Views - The company's liquor business has stabilized with a year-on-year revenue increase of 1.5% in Q3 2025, while the flavoring segment saw a 14.5% increase. The overall trend indicates a clear improvement in the liquor business after a decline earlier in the year [8] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 remained stable at 70.2%. However, the net profit margin decreased by 2.14 percentage points to 20.52% due to increased costs associated with new product launches and capital expenditures related to the whiskey segment [9] - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations for steady growth driven by the stabilization of the pre-mixed liquor segment and the orderly expansion of the whiskey business [10] Financial Summary - Q3 2025: Revenue of 781 million yuan (+2.99%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan (-6.76%) [11] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.27 billion yuan (-4.89%), with a net profit of 549 million yuan (-4.35%) [11] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 3.056 billion yuan, 3.520 billion yuan, and 4.069 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook due to ongoing industry pressures [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 4.89% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 549 million yuan, down 4.35% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 517 million yuan, a decrease of 7.93% [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 781 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.99%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 6.76% to 160 million yuan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's liquor business generated a main business income of 1.978 billion yuan and a net profit of 381 million yuan [9]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased from 539 million yuan in the previous year to 755 million yuan this year, attributed to improved accounts receivable management and receipt of support funds [9]. - The net cash flow from investment activities improved from -741 million yuan to -429 million yuan, mainly due to reduced capital expenditures and equity acquisition expenses [9]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 2.15 percentage points to 20.52%, while the gross profit margin slightly increased by 0.01 percentage points to 70.19% [9]. - The selling expense ratio increased by 3.24 percentage points, contributing to the decline in net profit [9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates gradual recovery in the sales of pre-mixed cocktails, with inventory levels currently deemed reasonable, suggesting potential for increased sales volume in the future [9]. - The whiskey business is progressing steadily and is expected to become a new growth driver for the company [9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.68 yuan and 0.80 yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 38 and 32 times [9].