食品饮料 2025 年 06 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《5 月社零增速稳步上行，内需动力进 一步修复—行业点评报告》-2025.6.17 《威士忌新品上市，看好魔芋品类发 展—行业周报》-2025.6.15 《新消费驱动板块上行，关注业绩可 持续兑现品种—行业周报》-2025.6.8 "禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板块底部机会 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：白酒重视底部机会，5 月社零数据稳步上行 6 月 16 日-6 月 20 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 0.1%，一级子行业排名第 4，跑赢沪 深 300 约 0.3pct，子行业中啤酒（+1.9%）、白酒（+1.1%）、其他食品（+0.0%） 表现相对领先。5 月禁酒令出台后，政务系统整治违规吃喝执 ...

摘要 白酒板块展现较强韧性，其他酒类如啤酒、黄酒、预调酒毛利率较高。 白酒受禁酒令及线上活动影响批价震荡，但龙头企业通过渠道话语权和 政策调控稳定供需，保持价格稳定。关注白酒边际基本面变化。 乳制品行业受疫情影响，走亲访友需求减少，消费场景缺失。上游奶牛 存栏量扩张导致供给过剩，小品牌低价抢占市场，龙头乳企因社会责任 无法压低收奶价格，价格战加剧，牛奶价格下行，品牌溢价减少。关注 奶价格回升预期下伊利等利润率提升。 零食行业中，线下零食连锁和线上抖音渠道崛起带来新机会，但消费者 对价格敏感，品牌忠诚度不高。工业效率高、成本低的企业通过性价比 路线抢占市场份额，如盐津铺子和三只松鼠。头部公司在单一品类中仍 享有较高溢价，如卫龙、盐津铺子、有友食品。 卤味行业受包装类休闲零食冲击，龙头企业积极转型，如周黑鸭涉足副 业务，绝味食品探索新店型。保健品行业客户相对愿意支付溢价，但竞 争激烈，需新剂型和突出营销能力。汤臣倍健等传统品牌溢价空间较弱。 Q&A 在食品饮料行业中，悦己消费和悦人消费分别有哪些细分赛道？ 食品饮料行业可以分为酒类和非酒类两大块。酒类方面，白酒板块市值占比较 大，主要以悦己消费为主。此外，啤酒、预 ...

又是一年"618"，电商大促的热度似乎不如从前，但在这片看似沉寂的市场中，一个新的消费趋势正在悄然崛起 ——年轻人正在重新定义喝酒的方式。 美团闪购的"618战报"显示，酒水品类迎来爆发式增长：浙江酒类连锁品牌久加久首日销售额突破1100万，北京海 淀某门店即时零售订单增长86倍，酒类成交额同比增长超90倍。这些数字背后，隐藏着一个关键变化：年轻人喝 酒的方式、心态和场景，已经和过去截然不同。 从"不醉不归"到"微醺刚刚好" 过去，酒桌文化往往与商务宴请、社交应酬绑定，"感情深，一口闷"的豪饮方式曾是主流。但今天的年轻人，更 倾向于"微醺文化"——喝酒不是为了醉，而是为了放松、愉悦自己。 某酒类连锁品牌负责人分享了一组数据：过去，高端白酒是门店的绝对主力，啤酒的销售额占比仅1%-5%;而现 在，啤酒的销售占比已提升至20%-30%，若按销量计算，更是翻了数倍。这一变化的核心在于，年轻人喝酒的场 景更加碎片化、日常化——可能是一顿晚餐、一部电影、一场游戏，甚至只是独处时的放松时刻。 "他们更看重酒的品质、口味，甚至品牌故事。"年轻人愿意为一杯独特的精酿或设计感强的小甜酒买单，而这种 消费偏好，正在重塑酒类市场。 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The report predicts earnings per share of 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3,634 million CNY, 4,288 million CNY, and 5,410 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 18.0%, and 26.2% respectively [4]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 1,091 million CNY, 1,353 million CNY, and 1,774 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 18.1%, 24.1%, and 31.1% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 847 million CNY, 1,051 million CNY, and 1,402 million CNY, with growth rates of 17.8%, 24.0%, and 33.5% respectively [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 66.7% in 2023 to 72.9% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 23.3% to 25.9% during the same period [4]. Market Potential - The whiskey market in China is currently underdeveloped, with only 0.8% of the total liquor market share, indicating significant growth potential as domestic brands gain traction [13][20]. - The report highlights that the domestic whiskey market is expected to grow from 55 billion CNY in 2023 to approximately 83 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [39][42]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in the ready-to-drink segment to replicate its success in the whiskey market, focusing on consumer education and strategic marketing [8][36]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a whiskey matrix with its brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing imported products to cater to Chinese consumer preferences, which has been a successful strategy in other markets [43][44]. - The company is targeting the mass market with affordable pricing strategies, which is crucial for penetrating the whiskey market in China [57].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The whiskey market in China has significant growth potential, with the current market size being only 55 billion CNY, representing a mere 0.8% of the total liquor market [13][20]. - The company has successfully localized imported products, as evidenced by its previous success in the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, and aims to replicate this success in the whiskey market [8][36]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 is 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% in 2025, 18.0% in 2026, and 26.2% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 3,634 million CNY in 2025, 4,288 million CNY in 2026, and 5,410 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. Market Analysis - The whiskey segment is projected to grow significantly, with the potential for domestic brands to capture a larger market share, aiming for a 50% domestic market penetration by leveraging local production and unique flavor profiles [37][39]. - The report highlights that the company’s whiskey products are positioned in the mass market price range, which is crucial for stimulating initial consumer interest and expanding market share [57][58]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a liquor matrix with its whiskey brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33]. - The marketing strategy focuses on experiential marketing and collaboration with local distributors to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [34][36].

Group 1: Evolution of Consumption Society in Japan and the U.S. - The generational shift has profoundly influenced the evolution of consumption societies in Japan and the U.S. [1] - In Japan, the Taisho and early Showa generations led the transition from the first to the second consumption society, followed by the New Human Generation and part of the Baby Boomer generation driving the third consumption society [1] - In the U.S., Baby Boomers focus on unique product advantages, Generation X prefers time-saving products, Generation Y is enthusiastic about energy-saving and green consumption, while Generation Z contributes significantly to digital and gaming consumption [1] Group 2: Current State and Potential of China's Consumption Society - The post-90s and post-95s generations in China have developed consumption concepts similar to Japan's New Human Generation and the U.S. Baby Boomers, emphasizing spiritual satisfaction and personalized consumption [2] - Compared to Japan and the U.S., China's service consumption currently stands at 46.1%, indicating significant room for growth in the service sector [2] Group 3: Characteristics of the Third Consumption Society and Self-Satisfaction Consumption Trends - In the third consumption society, consumers prioritize emotional and psychological factors over mere functionality when selecting products, leading to a shift in brand positioning from "leader" to "supporting role" [3][10] - Self-satisfaction consumption is emerging as a key trend, focusing on emotional resources, emotional resolution solutions, and legal emotional release [6][11] Group 4: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional resources include the pet economy, IP toys, and temple economy, catering to spiritual and emotional needs [6] - Emotional resolution solutions are found in beauty and personal care products, gold and jewelry, and new-style food and beverages that address appearance and safety anxieties [6] - Legal emotional release is represented by outdoor activities, light alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products, which help consumers manage stress [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.048 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring items, was 672 million yuan, down 13.65% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 662 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.97% [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.11%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 10.39% to 178 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - The significant decline in revenue was primarily due to a decrease in the sales of pre-mixed drinks, which recorded a revenue of 2.677 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.17% year-on-year [2] - The revenue from food flavoring remained stable, reaching 337 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] - As of 2024, pre-mixed drinks accounted for 87.83% of total sales, while food flavoring represented 11.04% [2] Sales Channel Performance - Offline sales saw a slight decline, while ready-to-drink and digital retail channels experienced significant drops of 43.58% and 30.75% respectively [3] - The number of distributors decreased by 4% to 2068 by the end of 2024, with a notable 16% reduction in the East China market [3] - The decline in sales was attributed to the closure of entertainment venues, impacting the ready-to-drink segment [3] Profitability Analysis - Despite a rise in gross margin, the net profit margin declined due to higher selling, general, and administrative expenses, which reached 35.45% in 2024, up 4.51 percentage points year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased significantly, leading to a net profit margin increase of 3.68 percentage points [4] - The company is diversifying into the spirits business, with initial revenue generated in Q1 2025 [4] Spirits Business Development - The company aims to become a leader in the domestic whiskey industry, focusing on high-quality whiskey production [5] - The whiskey aging project is progressing as planned, with the capacity to manage 1 million oak barrels [5] - Two whiskey products were launched in 2024, and the spirits segment is expected to contribute to future growth [5] Earnings Forecast - Projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.78 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.07 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.65, 29.13, and 25.28 [5]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 证券分析师 苏铖 百润股份（002568） 积极拥抱新渠道，关注新品节奏 2025 年 05 月 26 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,499 | 3,993 | 4,701 | | 同比（%） | 25.85 | (6.61) | 14.80 | 14.11 | 17.74 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 809.42 | 719.14 | 806.85 | 970.60 | 1,181.04 | | 同比（%） | 55.28 | (11.15) | 12.20 | 20.30 | 21.68 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 1.13 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 34.12 | 38.41 | 34.23 | 28.46 | 23.39 | [ ...

口味方面，健康养生和小众尝鲜成为新的趋势。近两年来，主打食药同补的红豆、枸杞、红枣、薏米 等，在酒水市场甚为活跃。中医酒馆、中药酒肆成为网红，放纵又调理的中医酒馆吸引大批年轻人打 卡。 通过降低酒精度数来减少身体负担，凭创意包装和小众水果口味出圈……当宅家微醺成为年轻人休闲放 松的好方法，酒水不再局限于传统口感，健康和潮流成为其新的关键词。 低度酒成为微醺首选 近年来，消费者对酒水饮料的味型需求不再局限于传统的口感，健康和潮流成为新的关键词。国家酒类 品质与安全国际联合研究中心、值得买科技等单位联合发布的《中国消费者生活方式演进趋势系列报告 （酒水饮料篇）》显示，2024年低度酒市场增长迅猛，其中果酒和预调酒的线上销售同比增长分别达到 128%和88%。这种趋势背后是国人对健康生活方式的追求。 低度酒不仅满足了日常社交的需求，还减少了身体负担，成为年轻人微醺时刻的首选。传统酒类也在不 断创新。白酒行业在保持传统香型的基础上，开始探索新的风味，如馥郁香、老白干香等。葡萄酒市场 则迎来了甜白、起泡酒等细分品类的崛起。在饮料领域，健康化趋势同样明显。无糖茶、植物蛋白饮料 等品类受到越来越多消费者的喜爱。 酒水也要" ...

证券代码：002646 证券简称：天佑德酒 青海互助天佑德青稞酒股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-001 | 投资者关 | □ 特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 系活动类 | □ 媒体采访 √ 业绩说明会 | | 别 | 新闻发布会 路演活动 □ □ | | | 现场参观 □ | | | □ 其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位 | 线上参与天佑德酒（002646）2024 年度报告暨 2025 年第一季度报告业绩 | | 名称及人 | | | | 说明会的全体投资者 | | 员姓名 | | | 上市公司 | 董事长李银会 | | 接待人员 | 董事、总经理万国栋 | | 姓名 | 董事、副总经理、营销中心总经理范文丁 | | | 独立董事方文彬 | | | 副总经理、财务总监郭春光 | | | 董事、董事会秘书赵洁 | | | 52.96%，主要原因是什么？公司采取了哪 | | | 些措施来应对这一下滑趋势？ | | 投资者关 | 答:欢迎您对我公司的关心，2024 年公司在消费者互动建设方面及市 | | | 场宣传方面增加了聚焦投入，销售收入 ...