事件：公司发布2025 年中报，25H1 实现营业收入14.89 亿元，同比-8.6%；实现归母净利润3.89 亿元， 同比-3.3%；实现扣非归母净利润3.56 亿元，同比-9.0%。分季度看，25Q2 实现营业收入7.52 亿元，同 比-9.0%；实现归母净利润2.08 亿元，同比-10.9%；实现扣非归母净利润1.78 亿元，同比-22.6%。 高基数下上半年业绩小幅下滑。分业务看，25H1 公司酒类产品/食用香精分别实现营业收入12.97/1.69 亿元，同比-9.4%/-3.9%。分渠道看，25H1 预调酒线下/数字零售渠道分别实现营业收入13.11/1.55 亿 元，分别同比-9.6%/-0.6%，在即时零售景气度较高的情况下，数字零售渠道相对表现稳健。 分产品看：1）预调酒：二季度消费环境整体承压，公司以库存消化为核心工作，同步加强渠道管理、 主动收缩费用并停止授信，以维护市场秩序。 盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司25-26 年实现营业收入33.91/39.53亿元，同比+11.2%/+16.6%，预计 实现归母净利润8.18/10.07 亿元，同比+13.7%/+23.2%，维持"推荐"评级 ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 百润股份（002568.SZ） 新老共震，期待估值业绩双升 投资建议：考虑到酒类业务 25H1 短期承压，略调整盈利预测，预计 2025- 2027 年实现归母净利润 7.7/9.4/10.9 亿元（（前为为 8.6/10.0/11.2 亿元）， 同比+6.9%/22.2%/15.8%，当前股价对应 PE 为 39/32/28x，维持"买入" 评级。 风险提示：消费复苏不及预期，新品培育不及预期，威士忌培育费投过高。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,323 | 4,030 | 4,610 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 25.9 | -6.6 | 9.0 | 21.3 | 14.4 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 809 | 719 | 769 | 939 | 1,087 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 55.3 ...

老品调整去库，新品上市催化 证 券 研 究 报 告 百润股份（002568）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2025 年半年报。25 年上半年实现营业总收入 14.9 亿元，同减 8.6%， 归母净利润 3.9 亿元，同减 3.3%；单 Q2 来看，营业总收入为 7.5 亿元，同减 9.0%，归母净利润 2.0 亿元，同减 10.9%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,048 | 3,320 | 3,682 | 4,053 | | 同比增速(%) | -6.6% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 719 | 790 | 914 | 1,051 | | 同比增速(%) | -11.2% | 9.8% | 15.6% | 15.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.87 | 1.00 | | 市盈率(倍) | 42 ...

Core Insights - The summer ice beverage market is experiencing significant growth, with instant retail becoming the core driver of industry expansion [1][2][6] - Consumer demand for ice beverages is diverse, driven by emotional value, health attributes, and curiosity experiences [1][2][15] Market Performance - In June 2025, instant retail ice beverage sales increased by 41% month-on-month, outperforming all channels by 3.5 times [2][49] - The order volume for "ice cup + beverage" and "ice grape" categories surged by 261% and 367% respectively [2] - Regions like Shaanxi and Sichuan saw over 160% growth in sparkling water and fruit tea, while first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai experienced 797% and 353% growth in fruit gift boxes and fruit wine orders [2][59] Consumer Trends - 78% of consumers are willing to pay a premium for products that provide emotional relaxation, with ice cup products seeing a 66% increase in orders [1][2] - Health-conscious consumers are actively seeking to improve their health, with zero-calorie instant tea and beer sales growing by 108% and 144% respectively [1][22] - Curiosity-driven purchases led to a staggering 710% increase in orders for innovative ice products like "ice magic chestnut" and 171% for frozen watermelon [1][15] Instant Retail Dynamics - Instant retail channels are effectively responding to summer's personalized and diverse demands, covering a wide range of consumer preferences [2][66] - The number of stores providing instant supply of ice beverages, such as convenience warehouses and snack shops, has increased by over 140% year-on-year [2][68] Product Innovation - The trend towards low-sugar, low-calorie beverages aligns with consumer health concerns, with 86% of consumers actively trying to improve their health [22][23] - Innovative products that combine local flavors and unique stories are gaining popularity, reflecting a growing consumer interest in niche beverages [39][40] Seasonal Consumption Patterns - The summer season is the peak time for ice beverage consumption, accounting for 31% of annual retail sales [12] - Different time slots show varying preferences, with fruit wine orders increasing by 393% during late-night hours and sports drinks by 171% in the afternoon [2][62]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying bottom opportunities in the liquor sector, with May retail sales data showing steady improvement [3][11] - The food and beverage index experienced a slight decline of 0.1% from June 16 to June 20, ranking 4th among primary sub-industries and outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points [3][13] - The report highlights that the recent ban on alcohol consumption has significantly impacted liquor demand and market sentiment, leading to a continuous decline in stock prices. However, recent media clarifications have provided a slight rebound in the liquor sector [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The liquor sector is focusing on bottom opportunities, with May retail sales data showing a steady upward trend [3][11] - The food and beverage index outperformed the market, with beer and liquor showing relative strength [3][11] 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage index had a decline of 0.1%, ranking 4th among 28 industries, with beer (+1.9%) and liquor (+1.1%) leading the performance [3][13] 3. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, which may alleviate cost pressures for beverage companies [16][33] 4. Liquor Industry News - The report notes that the liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for gradual recovery as valuations become more attractive [4][12] 5. Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Co. [5][12]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in drinking culture among young consumers, moving from traditional drinking practices to a more casual and self-pleasing approach [1][2][4] Group 1: Changing Drinking Culture - Young consumers are redefining drinking habits, favoring "micro-drunk culture" over traditional heavy drinking [2][4] - The sales proportion of beer has increased from 1%-5% to 20%-30% in certain retail environments, indicating a shift towards lighter alcoholic beverages [2][4] - Young drinkers prefer to enjoy alcohol in casual settings, such as dinners, movies, or even alone, rather than for social obligations [2][4] Group 2: Social Dynamics - Alcohol is now seen as a medium for sharing experiences rather than a tool for business or social obligation [4][11] - Young consumers are willing to pay for unique and quality alcoholic beverages, reshaping market dynamics [4][11] Group 3: Instant Retail Solutions - Instant retail platforms like Meituan Flash Purchase are addressing the demand for immediate access to alcohol, with delivery times as short as 30 minutes [6][7] - Many alcohol brands are seeing over 50% of their sales coming from online channels, with some adopting a "pure takeaway warehouse" model to reduce costs [7][11] Group 4: Evolving Consumption Scenarios - Traditional high-end liquor is still relevant but is now consumed in more casual settings, such as home gatherings or hotel takeout [8][9] - The demand for lower-priced liquor has surged, particularly in the under 400 yuan category, as consumers prepare for weekend gatherings [8][9] Group 5: Market Opportunities - The 618 shopping festival has transformed from a challenging period for offline liquor retailers to a significant opportunity, with Meituan Flash Purchase reporting a 70-fold increase in white liquor sales [9][11] - Brands that understand and adapt to the preferences of young consumers are positioned to thrive in this evolving market [11]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The report predicts earnings per share of 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3,634 million CNY, 4,288 million CNY, and 5,410 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 18.0%, and 26.2% respectively [4]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 1,091 million CNY, 1,353 million CNY, and 1,774 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 18.1%, 24.1%, and 31.1% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 847 million CNY, 1,051 million CNY, and 1,402 million CNY, with growth rates of 17.8%, 24.0%, and 33.5% respectively [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 66.7% in 2023 to 72.9% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 23.3% to 25.9% during the same period [4]. Market Potential - The whiskey market in China is currently underdeveloped, with only 0.8% of the total liquor market share, indicating significant growth potential as domestic brands gain traction [13][20]. - The report highlights that the domestic whiskey market is expected to grow from 55 billion CNY in 2023 to approximately 83 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [39][42]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in the ready-to-drink segment to replicate its success in the whiskey market, focusing on consumer education and strategic marketing [8][36]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a whiskey matrix with its brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing imported products to cater to Chinese consumer preferences, which has been a successful strategy in other markets [43][44]. - The company is targeting the mass market with affordable pricing strategies, which is crucial for penetrating the whiskey market in China [57].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The whiskey market in China has significant growth potential, with the current market size being only 55 billion CNY, representing a mere 0.8% of the total liquor market [13][20]. - The company has successfully localized imported products, as evidenced by its previous success in the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, and aims to replicate this success in the whiskey market [8][36]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 is 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% in 2025, 18.0% in 2026, and 26.2% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 3,634 million CNY in 2025, 4,288 million CNY in 2026, and 5,410 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. Market Analysis - The whiskey segment is projected to grow significantly, with the potential for domestic brands to capture a larger market share, aiming for a 50% domestic market penetration by leveraging local production and unique flavor profiles [37][39]. - The report highlights that the company’s whiskey products are positioned in the mass market price range, which is crucial for stimulating initial consumer interest and expanding market share [57][58]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a liquor matrix with its whiskey brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33]. - The marketing strategy focuses on experiential marketing and collaboration with local distributors to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [34][36].

Group 1: Evolution of Consumption Society in Japan and the U.S. - The generational shift has profoundly influenced the evolution of consumption societies in Japan and the U.S. [1] - In Japan, the Taisho and early Showa generations led the transition from the first to the second consumption society, followed by the New Human Generation and part of the Baby Boomer generation driving the third consumption society [1] - In the U.S., Baby Boomers focus on unique product advantages, Generation X prefers time-saving products, Generation Y is enthusiastic about energy-saving and green consumption, while Generation Z contributes significantly to digital and gaming consumption [1] Group 2: Current State and Potential of China's Consumption Society - The post-90s and post-95s generations in China have developed consumption concepts similar to Japan's New Human Generation and the U.S. Baby Boomers, emphasizing spiritual satisfaction and personalized consumption [2] - Compared to Japan and the U.S., China's service consumption currently stands at 46.1%, indicating significant room for growth in the service sector [2] Group 3: Characteristics of the Third Consumption Society and Self-Satisfaction Consumption Trends - In the third consumption society, consumers prioritize emotional and psychological factors over mere functionality when selecting products, leading to a shift in brand positioning from "leader" to "supporting role" [3][10] - Self-satisfaction consumption is emerging as a key trend, focusing on emotional resources, emotional resolution solutions, and legal emotional release [6][11] Group 4: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional resources include the pet economy, IP toys, and temple economy, catering to spiritual and emotional needs [6] - Emotional resolution solutions are found in beauty and personal care products, gold and jewelry, and new-style food and beverages that address appearance and safety anxieties [6] - Legal emotional release is represented by outdoor activities, light alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products, which help consumers manage stress [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.048 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring items, was 672 million yuan, down 13.65% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 662 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.97% [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.11%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 10.39% to 178 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - The significant decline in revenue was primarily due to a decrease in the sales of pre-mixed drinks, which recorded a revenue of 2.677 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.17% year-on-year [2] - The revenue from food flavoring remained stable, reaching 337 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] - As of 2024, pre-mixed drinks accounted for 87.83% of total sales, while food flavoring represented 11.04% [2] Sales Channel Performance - Offline sales saw a slight decline, while ready-to-drink and digital retail channels experienced significant drops of 43.58% and 30.75% respectively [3] - The number of distributors decreased by 4% to 2068 by the end of 2024, with a notable 16% reduction in the East China market [3] - The decline in sales was attributed to the closure of entertainment venues, impacting the ready-to-drink segment [3] Profitability Analysis - Despite a rise in gross margin, the net profit margin declined due to higher selling, general, and administrative expenses, which reached 35.45% in 2024, up 4.51 percentage points year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased significantly, leading to a net profit margin increase of 3.68 percentage points [4] - The company is diversifying into the spirits business, with initial revenue generated in Q1 2025 [4] Spirits Business Development - The company aims to become a leader in the domestic whiskey industry, focusing on high-quality whiskey production [5] - The whiskey aging project is progressing as planned, with the capacity to manage 1 million oak barrels [5] - Two whiskey products were launched in 2024, and the spirits segment is expected to contribute to future growth [5] Earnings Forecast - Projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.78 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.07 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.65, 29.13, and 25.28 [5]