每经记者｜温梦华 每经编辑｜程鹏 肖芮冬 一年一度的"双11"购物狂欢之际，西南地区一家烟酒终端店老板李牧，却在这个时候主动下线即时零售平台。 几个月前，面对行业疲软和即时零售爆火，他陆续上线了两个平台。"卖了半个多月，虽说有些订单，却没赚到什么利润，还得和顾客扯皮售后问 题……"谈及这段经历，李牧满是失落。 反观今年的平台战报，却是火爆异常。"双11"促销期间，美团闪购茅台、五粮液、剑南春交易额年增长分别为612%、487%、556%；"双11"开门红首日白 酒交易额更是同比增长562%。天猫酒水行业，壹玖壹玖旗舰店闪购订单环比涨了20倍。 一组组惊人数据不断刷新公众对即时零售的期待，而行业内外也为袭来的风口摩拳擦掌。 近期，《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者对多家酒类终端店进行走访调查，发现酒类即时零售成新消费风口已是行业共识，但商家却更多持谨慎和观望态 度。而像李牧这样尝试之后选择放弃的，也并非个例。 正如硬币的两面：一边是即时零售千亿级赛道的爆发式增长，一边是经销商终端店"只赚吆喝不赚钱"的尴尬，酒类即时零售似乎正陷入"平台热、渠道 冷"的新博弈。 风口之上，平台、酒企、经销商该何去何从？《每日经济新闻·将 ...

一年一度的"双11"购物狂欢之际，西南地区一家烟酒终端店老板李牧，却在这个时候主动下线即时零售平台。 几个月前，面对行业疲软和即时零售爆火，他陆续上线了两个平台。"卖了半个多月，虽说有些订单，却没赚到什么利润，还得和顾客扯皮售后问题……"谈 及这段经历，李牧满是失落。 反观今年的平台战报，却是火爆异常。"双11"促销期间，美团闪购茅台、五粮液、剑南春交易额年增长分别为612%、487%、556%；"双11"开门红首日白酒 交易额更是同比增长562%。天猫酒水行业，壹玖壹玖旗舰店闪购订单环比涨了20倍。 一组组惊人数据不断刷新公众对即时零售的期待，而行业内外也为袭来的风口摩拳擦掌。 近期，《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者对多家酒类终端店进行走访调查，发现酒类即时零售成新消费风口已是行业共识，但商家却更多持谨慎和观望态度。 而像李牧这样尝试之后选择放弃的，也并非个例。 正如硬币的两面：一边是即时零售千亿级赛道的爆发式增长，一边是经销商终端店"只赚吆喝不赚钱"的尴尬，酒类即时零售似乎正陷入"平台热、渠道冷"的 新博弈。 风口之上，平台、酒企、经销商该何去何从？《每日经济新闻·将进酒》试图通过走访以及对话多位行业人士，还 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing profound changes by 2025, with shifts in consumer habits, channel restructuring, and capital market hesitance leading to both challenges and new opportunities [3][4][6] - The competition among regional liquor companies is becoming crucial due to increasing market concentration, consumption stratification, and channel inventory pressure, with four strategies proposed for success: market research, comprehensive assessment, terminal competition, and digital empowerment [5] - The rise of the post-90s generation in the liquor market is reshaping industry dynamics, with new players leveraging innovative channels like live streaming and instant delivery to drive growth [6][7] Group 2 - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival sees major liquor companies signaling price stabilization and increased channel investment to counter market pressures, with strategies including sales expense increases and inventory optimization [8][9] - Over 70% of consumers prefer classic products, indicating a return to value-driven purchasing during the holiday season, with brands focusing on quality and cultural elements to attract buyers [9][10] - Meituan's collaboration with top liquor brands to establish a comprehensive authenticity assurance system marks a significant leap in the instant retail sector, enhancing consumer trust and promoting a healthy market environment [10][11] Group 3 - The liquor industry is experiencing a shift towards rational consumption, with light bottle liquor gaining popularity as consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness and brand loyalty [12] - Major brands are engaging in cultural and experiential marketing to deepen connections with consumers, as seen in Qingdao Beer’s fan events and Wuliangye’s international cultural exchanges [13][15] - The launch of new products and strategic initiatives by companies like Langjiu and Niulanshan reflects a focus on quality and cultural resonance, aiming to capture market share in a competitive landscape [20][18] Group 4 - The establishment of quality control systems and agricultural partnerships by Fenjiu demonstrates a commitment to high-quality growth and sustainability in the liquor industry [25][26] - The introduction of low-alcohol products by companies like Fenyang Wang reflects a trend towards healthier drinking options, catering to evolving consumer preferences [27] - The integration of liquor with culinary experiences, as seen in Fenjiu's collaboration with Huaiyang cuisine, highlights the industry's efforts to innovate and enhance consumer engagement [28]

Core Viewpoint - Huazhi Wine is a significant client of JD's instant delivery platform, which is a crucial channel for the company's expansion into the instant retail business for alcoholic beverages [1] Group 1 - The company plans to continue actively collaborating with JD's instant delivery service to align with its development pace [1] - The company aims to steadily increase the number of stores participating in operations [1] - The company is committed to continuously enriching the variety of products available for sale [1] - The goal is to provide consumers with a more convenient, efficient, and authentic wine service experience [1]

Core Insights - The development history of Jiu Xiao Er reflects the evolution of instant retail in the liquor industry, transitioning from concept to maturity [2][17] - The future of liquor instant retail is expected to expand from "15-minute delivery" to "full-scenario liquor service" [17] Company Overview - Jiu Xiao Er's headquarters is located in Nanning, Guangxi, and it has expanded its liquor delivery services to 18 provinces, with a projected GMV exceeding 4 billion in 2024, over 2,000 front warehouses, and more than 12,000 delivery personnel [2][5] - The company was founded by Li Yongxin, who began experimenting with instant retail as early as 2000, using a fixed phone to take orders and deliver beer [3][5] Market Positioning - Jiu Xiao Er has carved out a unique niche in the instant retail market, focusing specifically on liquor, amidst competition from giants like Meituan, JD, and Taobao [7] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate of approximately 60% over the past decade [8] Operational Strategy - Jiu Xiao Er's operational model includes over 2,000 front warehouses and more than 12,000 delivery personnel, allowing for a coverage radius of 1.5 kilometers [9] - The company has established strategic alliances with over 600 brand partners, ensuring a comprehensive supply chain and product traceability [10][9] Competitive Advantage - Jiu Xiao Er's business model emphasizes collaboration with brand partners rather than undercutting their pricing, which has fostered long-term relationships and stability [11][10] - The company utilizes a data-driven approach to analyze consumer preferences and optimize inventory management, contributing to a high repurchase rate among its 30 million+ user profiles [12][9] Future Outlook - Jiu Xiao Er aims to create a closed-loop operation combining online and offline channels, effectively avoiding the pitfalls of traditional retail and platform models [14] - The company is positioned to expand its national presence and enhance its service offerings, as indicated by support from brand partners like Guizhou Xijiu [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of the liquor industry through the rise of e-commerce and instant retail, highlighting the shift from traditional sales methods to digital platforms and consumer-driven demand [2][6][10] Industry Trends - Instant retail in the liquor sector is experiencing explosive growth, with the market size expected to reach approximately 1 trillion yuan by 2027, up from around 200 billion yuan in 2023 [8][10] - The penetration rate of instant retail in the liquor market is projected to increase from 1% in 2023 to 6% by 2027, indicating a significant shift in consumer purchasing behavior [8] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring instant retail for its convenience, particularly for low-cost, high-frequency products like beer, which constitutes a significant portion of sales in this segment [12][13] - The demand for customized and scenario-based purchasing experiences is rising, as consumers seek quality assurance from official channels [8][10] Company Strategies - Major liquor companies are rapidly adapting to the instant retail model, with brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao launching initiatives to integrate with platforms like Meituan and Douyin [4][9] - Companies are encouraged to refine their supply chain and product offerings to meet the demands of both online and offline channels, ensuring a balanced pricing strategy [21][22] Market Dynamics - The competition in instant retail is intensifying, with concerns about profitability due to price wars and the influx of low-cost products [16][18] - Traditional liquor retailers are facing pressure to transition from wholesale to service-oriented retail models, as consumer preferences shift towards online purchasing [10][11] Operational Challenges - The need for diverse product offerings and effective operational strategies is critical for success in the instant retail space, as companies must avoid price wars and focus on sustainable profit models [17][22] - The integration of high-margin products alongside popular low-cost items is essential for maintaining profitability in the instant retail environment [18][22]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of instant retail in the liquor industry is being driven by e-commerce platforms, leading to significant changes in consumer purchasing behavior and traditional liquor distribution models [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The instant retail market for liquor has seen a 65% year-on-year growth in transaction volume in the first half of the year, indicating a shift towards immediate consumption [1]. - E-commerce platforms have significantly impacted liquor pricing, with some products, like ordinary Wuliangye, dropping below 800 yuan per bottle during promotional events [3]. - Instant retail penetration in the liquor market is currently around 1%, with a market size of nearly 200 billion yuan, expected to reach 6% penetration and over 1 trillion yuan by 2027 [9]. Group 2: Traditional Liquor Distribution Challenges - Traditional liquor distributors like 1919 and Jiu Bian Li have struggled to make a significant impact in instant retail, facing declining performance and limited user engagement [8]. - Financial data shows that 1919 has experienced continuous net losses from 2016 to 2022, with a total loss of over 600 million yuan during this period [8]. - Jiu Bian Li's financial performance has also been underwhelming, with two out of three years from 2022 to 2024 reporting losses [8]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Traditional liquor distributors are urged to adapt by enhancing their business models and embracing instant retail, as the market dynamics shift [12]. - 1919 is actively pursuing a new business model that integrates dining experiences with liquor sales, aiming to create a new ecosystem for liquor consumption [13]. - Companies like Huazhi Liquor are planning to leverage online and offline integration to expand their instant retail offerings, focusing on cost-effectiveness and market trends [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is actively embracing new channels and focusing on the rhythm of new product launches, particularly in the instant retail sector, which is expected to drive growth [7] - The instant retail market for alcoholic beverages in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 1,000 billion by 2027, up from approximately 360 billion in 2024 [7] - The company aims to leverage the advantages of the Yima delivery platform to enhance brand recognition and reach younger consumers, thereby boosting sales of its whiskey and other alcoholic products [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 3,499 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.80% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 806.85 million in 2025, reflecting a 12.20% increase year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.77 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.23 [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company targets a revenue growth of 15% in 2025, 14% in 2026, and 18% in 2027 [7] - The net profit is expected to grow by 12% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 22% in 2027 [7] Market Position - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the instant retail market through its strategic partnerships and product offerings [7] - The introduction of new whiskey products is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's growth trajectory [7]