Core Insights - The development history of Jiu Xiao Er reflects the evolution of instant retail in the liquor industry, transitioning from concept to maturity [2][17] - The future of liquor instant retail is expected to expand from "15-minute delivery" to "full-scenario liquor service" [17] Company Overview - Jiu Xiao Er's headquarters is located in Nanning, Guangxi, and it has expanded its liquor delivery services to 18 provinces, with a projected GMV exceeding 4 billion in 2024, over 2,000 front warehouses, and more than 12,000 delivery personnel [2][5] - The company was founded by Li Yongxin, who began experimenting with instant retail as early as 2000, using a fixed phone to take orders and deliver beer [3][5] Market Positioning - Jiu Xiao Er has carved out a unique niche in the instant retail market, focusing specifically on liquor, amidst competition from giants like Meituan, JD, and Taobao [7] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate of approximately 60% over the past decade [8] Operational Strategy - Jiu Xiao Er's operational model includes over 2,000 front warehouses and more than 12,000 delivery personnel, allowing for a coverage radius of 1.5 kilometers [9] - The company has established strategic alliances with over 600 brand partners, ensuring a comprehensive supply chain and product traceability [10][9] Competitive Advantage - Jiu Xiao Er's business model emphasizes collaboration with brand partners rather than undercutting their pricing, which has fostered long-term relationships and stability [11][10] - The company utilizes a data-driven approach to analyze consumer preferences and optimize inventory management, contributing to a high repurchase rate among its 30 million+ user profiles [12][9] Future Outlook - Jiu Xiao Er aims to create a closed-loop operation combining online and offline channels, effectively avoiding the pitfalls of traditional retail and platform models [14] - The company is positioned to expand its national presence and enhance its service offerings, as indicated by support from brand partners like Guizhou Xijiu [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of the liquor industry through the rise of e-commerce and instant retail, highlighting the shift from traditional sales methods to digital platforms and consumer-driven demand [2][6][10] Industry Trends - Instant retail in the liquor sector is experiencing explosive growth, with the market size expected to reach approximately 1 trillion yuan by 2027, up from around 200 billion yuan in 2023 [8][10] - The penetration rate of instant retail in the liquor market is projected to increase from 1% in 2023 to 6% by 2027, indicating a significant shift in consumer purchasing behavior [8] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring instant retail for its convenience, particularly for low-cost, high-frequency products like beer, which constitutes a significant portion of sales in this segment [12][13] - The demand for customized and scenario-based purchasing experiences is rising, as consumers seek quality assurance from official channels [8][10] Company Strategies - Major liquor companies are rapidly adapting to the instant retail model, with brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao launching initiatives to integrate with platforms like Meituan and Douyin [4][9] - Companies are encouraged to refine their supply chain and product offerings to meet the demands of both online and offline channels, ensuring a balanced pricing strategy [21][22] Market Dynamics - The competition in instant retail is intensifying, with concerns about profitability due to price wars and the influx of low-cost products [16][18] - Traditional liquor retailers are facing pressure to transition from wholesale to service-oriented retail models, as consumer preferences shift towards online purchasing [10][11] Operational Challenges - The need for diverse product offerings and effective operational strategies is critical for success in the instant retail space, as companies must avoid price wars and focus on sustainable profit models [17][22] - The integration of high-margin products alongside popular low-cost items is essential for maintaining profitability in the instant retail environment [18][22]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of instant retail in the liquor industry is being driven by e-commerce platforms, leading to significant changes in consumer purchasing behavior and traditional liquor distribution models [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The instant retail market for liquor has seen a 65% year-on-year growth in transaction volume in the first half of the year, indicating a shift towards immediate consumption [1]. - E-commerce platforms have significantly impacted liquor pricing, with some products, like ordinary Wuliangye, dropping below 800 yuan per bottle during promotional events [3]. - Instant retail penetration in the liquor market is currently around 1%, with a market size of nearly 200 billion yuan, expected to reach 6% penetration and over 1 trillion yuan by 2027 [9]. Group 2: Traditional Liquor Distribution Challenges - Traditional liquor distributors like 1919 and Jiu Bian Li have struggled to make a significant impact in instant retail, facing declining performance and limited user engagement [8]. - Financial data shows that 1919 has experienced continuous net losses from 2016 to 2022, with a total loss of over 600 million yuan during this period [8]. - Jiu Bian Li's financial performance has also been underwhelming, with two out of three years from 2022 to 2024 reporting losses [8]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Traditional liquor distributors are urged to adapt by enhancing their business models and embracing instant retail, as the market dynamics shift [12]. - 1919 is actively pursuing a new business model that integrates dining experiences with liquor sales, aiming to create a new ecosystem for liquor consumption [13]. - Companies like Huazhi Liquor are planning to leverage online and offline integration to expand their instant retail offerings, focusing on cost-effectiveness and market trends [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is actively embracing new channels and focusing on the rhythm of new product launches, particularly in the instant retail sector, which is expected to drive growth [7] - The instant retail market for alcoholic beverages in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 1,000 billion by 2027, up from approximately 360 billion in 2024 [7] - The company aims to leverage the advantages of the Yima delivery platform to enhance brand recognition and reach younger consumers, thereby boosting sales of its whiskey and other alcoholic products [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 3,499 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.80% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 806.85 million in 2025, reflecting a 12.20% increase year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.77 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.23 [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company targets a revenue growth of 15% in 2025, 14% in 2026, and 18% in 2027 [7] - The net profit is expected to grow by 12% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 22% in 2027 [7] Market Position - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the instant retail market through its strategic partnerships and product offerings [7] - The introduction of new whiskey products is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's growth trajectory [7]