Core Insights - The price of Feitian Moutai has significantly decreased, with the wholesale price on December 10 reported at 1500 RMB per 500ml bottle, marking a 15 RMB drop from the previous day and a nearly 32% decline from approximately 2200 RMB at the beginning of the year [1][9][10] Price Trends - 2023 has been a pivotal year for Feitian Moutai's pricing, with the wholesale price dropping below key thresholds of 2000 RMB, 1900 RMB, and 1800 RMB in June, and further falling below 1700 RMB and 1600 RMB in November [3][12] - The decline in prices is attributed to both seasonal factors and significant promotional events on e-commerce platforms [12] Market Impact - The reduction in Feitian Moutai's price reflects a broader return to rationality in the liquor market, potentially impacting other high-end liquor brands [5][13] - The price drop is expected to eliminate speculative bubbles and align product pricing with genuine consumer demand, thereby strengthening the brand's long-term value [5][13] Consumer Behavior - The ongoing decline in wholesale prices has influenced consumer perceptions, with retail prices reported as low as 1550 RMB in some stores, compared to around 2400 RMB in June, indicating a 25% decrease [4][13] - The price reduction is seen as a way to lower the consumption threshold, expanding the consumer base and potentially stabilizing Moutai's market demand [5][14] Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai's revenue for the first three quarters of the year reached 130.9 billion RMB, with a net profit of 64.63 billion RMB, both representing the lowest growth rates in nearly 11 years and falling short of the 9% annual growth target [7][16] - In response to price fluctuations, Guizhou Moutai has launched high-priced commemorative products to maintain brand prestige, including a limited edition priced at 7000 RMB and another at 11000 RMB [8][16]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai launched a new product priced at 11,000 yuan per bottle, which sold out quickly on the iMoutai app, indicating strong demand for premium products [1] - The overall trend for Moutai products shows a decline in prices, with significant drops observed in various product lines throughout the year [4][5] Product Launch and Sales - The new Guizhou Moutai product (Panama International Exposition Gold Medal 110th Anniversary) was released on December 8 and sold out on the first day [1] - Previous limited edition products, such as the 70th Anniversary of the Five-Star Trademark, sold out in 2 minutes at a price of 7,000 yuan per bottle [4] Price Trends - The wholesale price of the 70th Anniversary product peaked at 13,500 yuan per bottle shortly after its release but has since fallen to 7,900 yuan [4] - Other products like the "Snake Moutai" and "Shengle Feitian" have also seen significant price drops, with declines of 57.5% and 51.76% from their peak prices, respectively [4] - The price of the 2025 Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1,600 yuan, marking a decline of over 32% from its initial price of 2,255 yuan [4] Market Dynamics - Retail prices on e-commerce platforms have fallen below the official guidance price, with some listings as low as 1,399 yuan per bottle [5] - Moutai Group is actively working to stabilize market prices and has engaged with major e-commerce platforms to combat unfair competition [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of a high-priced commemorative liquor by Kweichow Moutai demonstrates the brand's strong appeal in the premium market, yet the overall liquor industry is facing significant adjustments and downward price pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Response - Kweichow Moutai's commemorative liquor, priced at 11,000 yuan per bottle, sold out quickly on the "i Moutai" app, reflecting the brand's strong market demand [1]. - The secondary market for the commemorative liquor showed a rational price correction, with initial prices soaring to 13,500 yuan per bottle before dropping to a wholesale reference price of 7,900 yuan, indicating a cooling enthusiasm for high-premium commemorative products [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The price of Moutai's core product, "Feitian Moutai," has been declining, with the price dropping to 1,530 yuan per bottle, highlighting the broader challenges faced by the liquor industry [3][4]. - The average inventory turnover days in the liquor industry reached 900 days, a 10% year-on-year increase, indicating growing inventory pressure amid shrinking demand [4]. - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association reported a 20% to 30% year-on-year decline in liquor demand during key festivals, while inventory levels increased by 10% to 20% [4]. Group 3: Strategic Responses and Market Outlook - Liquor companies are taking proactive measures to alleviate channel pressures, such as Wuliangye's introduction of a rebate program for its core product, which effectively lowers the price to stimulate sales [5]. - Despite the current low sentiment in the secondary market, some brokerages believe the liquor sector is nearing a bottom and presents investment opportunities, with a focus on stabilizing Moutai's wholesale prices as a potential market recovery signal [5]. - The liquor market is undergoing a significant destocking and value restructuring process, with future recovery dependent on restoring consumer confidence and rebuilding healthy distribution channels [5].