Counterpoint 咨询 . Counterpoint Research 是一家专注于科技行业的全球性研究公司，在全球主要的市场有着强大的影响 力。我们致力于为合作伙伴提供准确、及时的市场数据，帮助他们做出明智的决策。 编者荐语： Counterpoint 首次公开研讨会，点击文末阅读原文链接即可免费注册。席位有限，先定先得 以下文章来源于Counterpoint 咨询 ，作者Counterpoint Counterpoint Research将于2026年1月举办三场系列公开网络研讨会，分别聚焦内存价格走势、人形 机器人及汽车市场动态，助力企业预判行业变革并把握新兴机遇。 研讨会日程及演讲嘉宾 2026年1月14日（周三） | 上午10:00（北京时间） | 英文场次 新际遇｜存储价格变化：市场怎么看？企业如何应对？ 演讲嘉宾： Counterpoint 研究总监 MS Hwang 2026年1月21日（周三）| 上午10:00（北京时间）| 中文场次 新技术｜人型机器人新定义：未来角色与供应链动态 演讲嘉宾： Counterpoint 副总监 Ethan Qi 2026年1月22日（周四）| 上午1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article examines the performance of private credit in light of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and Moody's downgrade of U.S. government debt, questioning why private credit consistently performs well [1][3]. Group 1: Analysis of Interest Rates and Private Credit - The analysis shifts from the effective federal funds rate to the "10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield" to compare the cost differences between public and private funding in terms of mid-term premiums [3]. - Historical data shows significant volatility in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly in years like 2000, 2003, 2007, 2020, and 2021, alongside a long-term trend from 2009 to 2019, indicating that declines in Treasury yields often coincide with declines in credit fund returns [4]. - There is a limited correlation between private credit returns and mid-term Treasury yields, with notable volatility in private credit returns during economic downturns when Treasury yields typically rise [5]. Group 2: Trends and Future Outlook - In the years following economic recessions, private credit returns tend to be significantly higher than average, aligning with historical deep value investment returns during such periods [5]. - The 2010s saw a gradual decline in U.S. Treasury yields without economic recessions, leading to a similar decline in private credit returns, although there was a rebound after volatility in 2017 [5]. - The future outlook suggests that private credit may experience short-term volatility in 2025, but could benefit from deep investments once the market stabilizes, despite potential early impacts from the downgrade of U.S. Treasury credit ratings [6].