Forecasting the world in 2026 © Arusyak Pivazyan 《金融时报》的预测专家去年确实做对了一件大事：唐纳德·特朗普重返美国总统宝座，让世界 变得更加难以预测。通常情况下，我们20项预测中会有几项出错（好吧，有时是四五项）。去 年，我们错掉了七项，创下了历史最差纪录。乌克兰和俄罗斯之间没有达成和平协议——尽管谈 判一直持续到最后；美国利率确实下降了；埃隆·马斯克和特朗普确实闹翻了（不过后来有所缓 和）；英国工党政府确实又出台了一项大规模增税预算。我们对比特币突破20万美元的前景过于 乐观，而对电动汽车能够占全球汽车总销量的四分之一又过于悲观。 我们的作者们毫不畏惧，再次就一系列话题发表见解，从美国中期选举到人民币，从人工智能泡 沫到私人信贷，再到我们是否会在家中使用人形机器人和真正商用的量子计算机。请继续阅读， 了解更多详情。 特朗普的关税政策最终会使关税平均水平高于目前水平吗？ 不。美国总统上任之初曾威胁要对各方加征关税，理由包括增加财政收入、保护关键产业、迫使 贸易伙伴在政治上保持一致以及消除贸易逆差。然而，他很快发现事情远比这复杂得多。4月"解 放日"后股市暴跌 ...

2025/12/25 15:13 Goldman: The 15 Most Prominent Debates Of 2025 (Which Are Likely To Carry On In 2026) | ZeroHedge ⾼盛：2025年15个最受关注的争论（可能会延续到 2026年） ⾼盛的迪奥尼·埃利尼卡基提出了以下15个主题（及图表），重点介绍了2025年⼀些最受关注的争 论（所有这些争论很可能会延续到2026年）。 这些图表⼤多来⾃⾼盛（GS）的深度专题研究，专业订阅⽤⼾可以在我们新的MarketDesk.ai⻔⼾ ⽹站上找到这些内容…… 1/ ⼈⼯智能资本⽀出 今年，我们阅读量最⾼的研究报告是彼得·奥本海默的《为什么我们尚未处于泡沫之中……》。 BY TYLER DURDEN WEDNESDAY, DEC 17,2025-10:20 AM https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-15-most-prominent-debates-2025-which-are-likely-carry-2026 1/13 2025/12/25 15:13 Goldm ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights 15 key debates for 2025 that are likely to continue into 2026, focusing on various sectors including artificial intelligence, private credit, and macroeconomic factors [1] - There is a significant focus on the potential risks associated with alternative debt structures and high-leverage companies within the artificial intelligence ecosystem [4] - The report anticipates a further expansion of artificial intelligence transactions into platform stocks and productivity beneficiaries [9] - Concerns regarding private credit have arisen due to major losses and fraud allegations, indicating increasing risks in non-bank lending [12][13] - The recent rebound in the U.S. cyclical stock market reflects optimistic expectations for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026, with anticipated acceleration in economic growth and fiscal stimulus [15] - The report predicts a favorable fiscal stimulus environment for the upcoming year, driven by tax cuts, investment incentives, and new spending [17] - The K-shaped economic recovery is highlighted, showing disparities in consumer sentiment and sales growth between low-income and high-income segments [21] - The report suggests that 2026 may be a year of recovery for traditional economies, with rising commodity prices driven by a weaker dollar and increased inflation [23] - The outlook for Brent crude oil prices indicates significant downside potential compared to market expectations for 2026 [25] - The stablecoin market is currently valued at approximately $307 billion, dominated by Tether and Circle [29] - Despite strong economic performance in Europe, capital inflows remain notably sluggish [30] - The report has adjusted China's GDP growth forecast upward, which may negatively impact global GDP growth outside of China [36] - The report anticipates further strengthening of the euro against the dollar, which could adversely affect companies with high international sales [38] - South Korea is identified as the best-performing market year-to-date, with ongoing improvements in corporate sectors [40] - The ongoing technological competition between the U.S. and China remains intense, with both countries pursuing self-sufficient technology policies [42]

近日，美银以研究报告的形式，发布了一份全球基金经理信心大调查，238位手握5690亿美元资产的投 资者接受了这份调查。 调查结果显示，受调查的基金经理们宏观乐观度飙升至2021年8月以来的最高，现金持有量创纪录低至 3.3%，AI泡沫、私人信贷风险已悄然成为悬在市场上空的"达摩克利斯之剑"。 01 明年宏观预测：软着陆成共识 每当基金经理集体乐观的时候，究竟意味着机遇，还是风险？ 美银的这份调查显示，基金经理们对2026年全球经济的信心彻底回暖。 57%的基金经理看好全球经济"软着陆"——温和增长+通胀可控；另有37%的基金经理认为经济继续"起 飞"——持续强劲增长；仅3%的基金经理担忧经济"硬着陆"。 全球增长预期升至4年高点，企业盈利预期同步飙至2021年8月以来峰值，41%的受访者认为亚太企业盈 利将走强。 流动性环境被评为2021年9月以来最佳，69%的投资者押注凯文.哈西特将出任下任美联储主席。 02 AI与黄金：风险与拥挤交易 尽管基金经理对宏观经济大面积乐观，但大家并没有失去风险意识，37%的受访者认为风险可能来自 于"AI泡沫"。 40%的受访者认为存在信贷危机隐患：私人信贷是系统性信贷事件的 ...

Core Insights - The global private credit market, valued at approximately $3 trillion, is facing a negative outlook due to declining profit margins among borrowers, which may lead to increased loan defaults by 2026 [1][4] - Economic uncertainty, particularly in the U.S., is contributing to profit margin compression and rising leverage, putting the weakest companies at risk of default [1][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Profit margins for private credit borrowers are reported to be declining, with cash flow and interest coverage ratios also lower compared to the previous year [2][5] - The overall resilience of the industry is noted, despite the pressures from economic conditions and trade tariffs [2][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Sales improvements and reduced borrowing costs are beneficial for borrowers, while credit quality in Europe appears to be healthier [3][6] - The growth of private credit has led to stricter regulatory scrutiny, with the Bank of England initiating stress tests to assess the industry's performance during significant financial shocks [3][6] Group 3: Industry Interconnections - The increasing interconnectedness between private credit and the traditional financial system has been highlighted, with potential risks amplifying during financial stress [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex and potentially catastrophic financial arrangements within the AI industry, drawing parallels to the financial crisis of 2008, highlighting the risks associated with high levels of debt and interlinked financial structures among major tech companies [5][6][10]. Company Analysis - CoreWeave, a relatively unknown company, has emerged as a significant player in the AI sector, achieving the largest tech IPO since 2021 and doubling its stock price. It has secured major contracts worth $220 billion with OpenAI, $140 billion with Meta, and $60 billion with Nvidia [5][6]. - Despite its impressive contracts, CoreWeave operates at a loss, projecting $5 billion in revenue against $20 billion in expenses for the year. The company has accumulated $14 billion in debt, with over half due within a year, and faces $34 billion in lease obligations by 2028 [6][7]. Financial Structures - The financial model of CoreWeave relies heavily on a few key clients, with Microsoft accounting for 70% of its revenue, and Nvidia and OpenAI contributing an additional 20%. This creates a precarious dependency on a limited customer base [7]. - The AI industry's financialization is driven by the high costs of infrastructure needed for AI systems, with data center spending expected to exceed $400 billion this year and potentially reach $7 trillion by 2030. Creative financing methods are essential to support these investments [8][10]. Interconnectedness and Risks - Major companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, and others are forming intricate financial relationships, often involving equity stakes in exchange for future profits, which obscures the true financial health of these companies [8][9]. - The article warns that if the anticipated AI revolution does not materialize as expected, the financial ties binding these companies could lead to widespread economic repercussions, potentially more severe than the dot-com bubble burst [10][11]. Debt and Financial Instruments - The AI sector is accumulating significant debt, with estimates suggesting it could reach $1.5 trillion by 2028. This high leverage poses risks to the broader financial system if defaults occur [11][14]. - Companies are utilizing complex financial instruments, such as special purpose vehicles (SPVs) and asset-backed securities, to obscure debt levels and manage financing, reminiscent of practices leading up to the 2008 crisis [12][13]. Regulatory Environment - The article highlights concerns over the lack of regulatory oversight for private equity firms involved in AI financing, which could exacerbate risks in the event of a market downturn. The interconnectedness of private credit and traditional financial institutions raises alarms about potential systemic risks [14][15]. - Recent regulatory rollbacks may expose a broader public to the risks associated with AI financing, contrasting with the more reactive approach taken during the 2008 crisis [15][16].

伊瓦辛表示："我们正回到一个环境，即市场越来越需要自立，基于基本面自立。而这正是一个激动人 心的时刻。这意味着市场中有更多的风险溢价、更多的期限溢价、更高的收益率(具有显著的估值缓冲 空间，无论是绝对意义上还是相对于看似相当昂贵的股市)，以及更低的相关性。" 蓬勃发展的私人信贷市场中的评级问题受到审视并非首次。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)正在调查该领域 最活跃的评级机构之一——伊根-琼斯评级公司。与此同时，国际清算银行在今年早些时候的一份报告 中写道，涌入私人信贷的资金——尤其是来自保险公司的资金——"可能导致对信用价值的虚高评估， 以及相应的资本不足的风险敞口"。 智通财经APP获悉，全球最大债券基金公司之一的首席投资官发出警告，称信用市场存在"危险"的假 设，虚高的评级可能在美联储出手干预能力受限之际给投资者带来错误的安全感。太平洋投资管理公司 (PIMCO)首席投资官丹·伊瓦辛指出："仅仅因为评级机构给某项资产一个投资级评级，就假设某样东西 是投资级，这是非常、非常危险的。目前流向低质量公司的贷款增长如此之快。再次强调，上一个主要 周期是向信用质量家庭的放贷。" 在美联储本周做出利率决议之前，伊瓦辛预计 ...

Group 1 - Jefferies Financial Group has entered the Saudi Arabian private credit market by leading a $125 million financing deal for fintech startup Erad [1] - The financing will provide an asset-backed scalable financing tool to help Erad expand its lending to local SMEs in Saudi Arabia [1] - This move positions Jefferies among major Wall Street investment banks exploring private credit opportunities in Saudi Arabia and the broader Gulf region [1] Group 2 - There is a significant demand for new funding sources in the SME sector, which often struggles to secure support from local banks [2] - SMEs are considered the backbone of the Gulf region's economic diversification, facing a financing gap of $250 billion that limits their growth potential [2] - The financing tool will enable Erad to meet the growing financing needs of SMEs in the Gulf region and expand its service offerings beyond traditional consumer sectors to include manufacturing, logistics, distribution, and real estate services [2]

Group 1: Digital Asset Regulation in Hong Kong - Hong Kong is working to establish a safe and reliable digital asset platform, with final regulatory frameworks for digital asset trading and custody services being developed [1] - The market size for tokenized financial products in Hong Kong is approximately $3 billion, with increasing adoption of products like green bonds and retail gold products [1] - Many tokenized pilot projects are still in early stages, with room for improvement in efficiency and cost reduction, although many products still rely on fiat currency for cash settlement [1] Group 2: Private Credit Market Insights - The financial landscape has significantly changed since the 2008 financial crisis, with the implementation of Basel III increasing capital and liquidity requirements for banks, leading to the rise of private credit [2] - Global private equity assets under management have grown several times to $14 trillion over the past decade, with leverage shifting from banks to non-bank institutions [2] - The increase in retail investor participation in private credit necessitates regulatory scrutiny of the private credit ecosystem and its connection to the financial system [2]

Core Insights - The current financial system remains resilient, supported by strong asset positions of households and businesses, as well as adequate capital levels in the banking sector [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's latest Financial Stability Report highlights ongoing risks and vulnerabilities, particularly in asset valuations, the structural shift of corporate lending from traditional banks to private credit, and the increasing role of hedge funds in the U.S. Treasury market [2][5][8] Group 1: Asset Valuation - Asset valuations for stocks, corporate bonds, leveraged loans, and real estate are currently above historical benchmarks, indicating a potential risk of price corrections [5][6] - The risk compensation expectations are at historically low levels, which could either revert to normal, remain subdued, or weaken further [5][6] - Despite the potential for asset price declines, the overall resilience of the financial system suggests that a repeat of systemic failures like those seen during the Great Recession is unlikely [5][6] Group 2: Private Credit Expansion - Private credit has doubled in size over the past five years, raising concerns about the rapid growth of non-bank lending to non-public companies [6][7] - The private credit model allows long-term investors to fund private companies, which may lack access to traditional bank financing, potentially enhancing financial stability and economic growth [6][7] - However, the complexity and interconnectedness of leveraged entities in this space could create pathways for unexpected losses to affect the broader financial system [6][7] Group 3: Hedge Funds in Treasury Market - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in U.S. Treasury securities, with their share rising from 4.6% in Q1 2021 to 10.3% in Q1 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [8][9] - The sensitivity of hedge fund positions to market changes poses a risk of liquidity crises if they are forced to sell off large amounts of Treasuries simultaneously [8][9] - The trading strategies employed by hedge funds, particularly relative value strategies, could amplify market instability during periods of stress [8][9] Group 4: Impact of Artificial Intelligence - The rapid development of AI in financial services presents both opportunities and challenges for financial stability, particularly in algorithmic trading [10][11] - Generative AI can analyze vast amounts of data and deploy complex trading strategies, which may introduce risks if not properly monitored [10][11] - While AI has the potential to enhance market efficiency, it also raises concerns about market manipulation and the opacity of decision-making processes [10][11][12]