中国 证券研究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 阿里巴巴 "平头哥"IPO 消息是市场情绪催化剂；估值"选择权 价值"确实存在，但交易受可信度及结构驱动 媒体报道称，阿里巴巴正准备推进旗下人工智能芯片业务"平头哥" 单独上市。彭博社报道（链接）称，阿里巴巴可能首先对该业务进行 内部重组，改造为部分员工持股，随后再探索 IPO 可能性，具体时间 尚未确定。"平头哥"成立于 2018 年，开发用于数据中心、人工智 能和物联网的芯片，是阿里巴巴更广泛的"人工智能+云基础设施" 举措的核心。阿里巴巴尚未就该报道发表评论。 我们的观点：对讯息释放而非数字本身感到惊讶 我们对报道举措感到惊讶，因为这意味着向资本市场"价值释放"选 择权的重大回归。根据我们的粗略计算，采用同业企业价值/收入区 间和激进的 2026 年收入替代指标，平头哥单独上市估值数字可能在 250-620 亿美元（约占阿里巴巴当前市值的 6-14%）。我们认为这是 潜在短期情绪催化剂，而非短期盈利驱动因素，尤其是当市场快速判 定该事件不太可能在 2026 年发生的的情况下。 定位框架：短期 vs 长期 短期而言，我们将其视为重大消息驱动，直至消息确认。该 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces short-term resistance at 27,188 points, with expectations of two interest rate cuts in 2026 following the Federal Reserve's recent rate reduction of 0.25% [2] - The market anticipates increased monetary policy easing in mainland China, particularly in the first quarter of 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and achieving technological self-reliance [2] - Recent adjustments in financing margin ratios by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges may lead to short-term market pullbacks, affecting the momentum of Hong Kong stocks [2] Sector Outlook - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a peak travel season during the extended Spring Festival holiday, alongside favorable conditions from the appreciation of the RMB and soft oil prices [3] - High-dividend stocks are likely to attract capital as market risk appetite decreases, leading to increased investment in defensive sectors [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE inflation rose by 2.8% in November, aligning with expectations, while the GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised to 4.4%, exceeding forecasts [3][6] - China is projected to set its economic growth target for 2026 between 4.5% and 5%, lower than the previous year's target of around 5% [6] - The People's Bank of China indicated room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to maintain liquidity [6] Corporate News - Alibaba is preparing to list its semiconductor division, Pingtouge, to capitalize on investor interest in AI accelerator companies [9] - Baidu has launched the official version of its Wenxin large model 5.0, which supports various forms of information processing [9] - Pop Mart has restarted its share buyback program, with significant media coverage expected to boost its stock price [9] Investment Trends - KPMG's report on the Hong Kong banking sector indicates optimism for wealth management and IPO markets, suggesting growth opportunities for banks in 2026 [7] - The report highlights the importance of digital asset development and AI innovation in enhancing the competitive landscape of Hong Kong's banking industry [7]