来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：雷达Finance） 雷达财经出品 文|彭程 编|孟帅 此前在资本市场风光无限的泡泡玛特，近期股价表现颓软。 截至12月10日收盘，泡泡玛特的股价与8月创下的历史高点相比已大幅下挫超四成，市值更是蒸发超 2000亿港元。与此同时，多家海外投资机构近期也纷纷发布关于泡泡玛特的看空报告。 而就在此前，泡泡玛特还曾披露一份增长喜人的业务近况公告。今年第三季度，公司整体收益（未经审 核）同比增长245%-250%。其中，海外市场的表现尤为突出，收益同比增长365%-370%。 不过，据媒体报道，与昔日泡泡玛特"一娃难求"的火爆景象相比，如今其产品在二级市场的溢价明显回 落，热度较此前也有所降温。 在公司股价遭遇挑战之际，今年10月刚以1820亿元身家闯进《2025胡润百富榜》第17名高位的创始人王 宁，后续或面临新的财富考验。 值得一提的是，12月10日，泡泡玛特发布了一则重要公告：何愚辞任公司非执行董事一职，而新加入的 人选正是LV母公司LVMH大中华区集团总裁吴越。 市值蒸发超2000亿港元，泡泡玛特资本市场"遇冷" 截至12月9日收盘，泡泡玛特报190.3港元/股，单日跌幅超5%。此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and challenges of the Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) industry, highlighting the contrasting performance of leading companies like泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) and new entrants likeTOP TOY as they navigate market dynamics and investor sentiment [6][8]. Market Performance - TOP TOY has recently initiated its IPO process in Hong Kong, following a $59.426 million A-round financing led by Temasek, valuing the company at $1.3 billion [6]. -泡泡玛特 reported a significant revenue increase of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with overseas market growth reaching 365%-370% [6][10]. - Despite strong revenue growth,泡泡玛特's stock price has seen a decline, with a notable drop of 8.08% on the day of its earnings report [6][8]. Market Growth and Trends - The Chinese潮玩 market is projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.1% [10]. - The growth drivers include a structural upgrade in consumer demographics, diversification of product categories, and a trend of covering all age groups [10]. - The Z generation contributes over 40% of the market share, driven by a desire for self-pleasure in consumption [10]. Capital Market Concerns - Investors are increasingly cautious about the潮玩 industry due to its heavy reliance on intellectual property (IP), which is subject to changing consumer emotions and trends [12]. - The premium consumers are willing to pay for top IPs has decreased significantly, indicating a potential decline in market enthusiasm [12]. - The influx of new brands has intensified competition, leading to market saturation and reduced investor confidence in smaller brands [13]. Global Expansion and Challenges -泡泡玛特's overseas revenue reached 5.59 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 40% of total revenue, with significant growth in the Asia-Pacific and Americas regions [14][16]. - However, many brands are merely replicating domestic strategies abroad without adapting to local cultures, raising concerns about sustainable growth [16]. Profit Margins and Business Models - The潮玩 industry enjoys high profit margins, with泡泡玛特's gross margin increasing from 57.5% in 2022 to 70.3% in the first half of 2025 [18][19]. - The high margins are attributed to the emotional resonance of IPs and low material costs, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this model [19][23]. - TOP TOY's reliance on IP licensing rather than owning its IP has resulted in lower profitability compared to泡泡玛特 [23]. Comparison with Disney - Despite the growth of潮玩 brands, none have reached the scale or cultural impact of Disney, which has a market capitalization over four times that of泡泡玛特 [28]. - Disney's success is attributed to its comprehensive ecosystem of stories, IPs, and merchandise, which潮玩 brands have yet to replicate [28][29]. - The lack of deep cultural narratives and emotional connections in the潮玩 industry limits its potential for long-term growth and consumer loyalty [30].