机构：西部证券 研究员：肖燕南/田地/于佳琦 西式快餐行业扩容领跑，头部集中优势稳固 1）2025 年西式快餐市场规模预计突破3000 亿元，同增10.3%，增速领跑小吃快餐细分赛道，汉堡品类 占据70.6%市场份额，赛道结构集中。2）市场集中度高，2024 年CR5 占比44%，其中百胜中国以27.5% 稳居第一。 品质稳定品牌常青，坚持高股东回报 1）门店规模大渗透率高且闭店率低，2025Q3 末公司总门店数达17514 家，2014-2024CAGR 为9%。2） 产品本地化创新能力强叠加强品牌力，2025Q3会员数量达5.75 亿，会员销售占比达57%。3）成熟供应 链体系与门店管理能力支撑单店健康盈利，网络覆盖超5000 个城镇；2025Q3 肯德基/必胜客门店利润率 分别为18.5%/13.4%。4）自由现金流保持高位，保持较高股东回报水平。2024 公司合计回报股东15.17 亿美元，股东回报率达166.49%。 下沉市场扩张加速推进，提质增效释放利润 1）适配店型加速下沉渗透，推出肯德基小镇mini 店/必胜客WOW 店精准覆盖低线城市，2025Q3 肯德 基/必胜客加盟占比分别达15%/7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1% (or 2% excluding foreign currency translation effects) [6] - Adjusted net profit reached $292 million, up 2% year-on-year (or 3% excluding foreign currency translation effects) [6] - Core operating profit margin improved to 13.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Same-store sales remained flat year-on-year, with a continued increase in transaction volume but a decrease in average ticket price [6] - The company opened a net of 247 new stores in Q1 2025, with a total of 16,642 restaurants at the end of the quarter [7] - The restaurant profit margin improved to 18.6%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower food and packaging costs [8] Revenue Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow at a rate of 4.6% to $11.821 billion, with net profit expected to reach $957 million [12] - The company plans to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a target of over 20,000 stores by 2026 [7] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts EPS of $2.56, $2.77, and $2.96 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17x, 16x, and 15x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]