Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes Kuaishou is the most undervalued AI stock, significantly raising its target price from HKD 71 to HKD 88, indicating a potential upside of 22% and reaffirming it as the top pick in China's digital entertainment sector [2][11]. Kuaishou's AI Business Outlook - The revenue forecast for Kuaishou's AI video generation tool, Keling, has been raised by 61%, with expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 now at RMB 12 billion and RMB 19 billion respectively, driven by strong performance in Q2 2025 [3]. - Keling's monthly revenue exceeded RMB 1 billion in April and May, and concerns about cash flow fluctuations are considered overblown, as most revenue comes from the PC side rather than mobile [3]. Advertising and E-commerce Business - Kuaishou's core advertising and e-commerce business is seen as undervalued, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for advertising and e-commerce commission revenue from 2026 to 2027 [6]. - The user base remains stable, unaffected by the rapid growth of WeChat's video accounts, and the shift towards higher-margin advertising and e-commerce is expected to boost profit margins, leading to a projected 20% CAGR in profits from 2026 to 2027 [6]. Business Model and Market Strategy - Kuaishou's entry into the food delivery sector is based on a light-asset model, partnering with established companies like Meituan rather than building its own logistics, which minimizes upfront investment and creates additional monetization opportunities through service commissions [5]. Valuation and Growth Potential - Despite a 73% rebound in Kuaishou's stock price year-to-date, the valuation remains attractive, with a current price corresponding to 14/11 times the expected earnings for 2025/2026, while the forecasted profit CAGR for 2026-2027 is 20% [9]. - The target price of HKD 88 is based on a 14x multiple of the expected earnings for 2026, reflecting optimism about the acceleration of core advertising growth and Keling's strong momentum [11].

在全球AI热潮中，哪只股票最被低估？摩根大通给出了明确答案。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通8月12日发布的研报写道，"快手仍是最被低估的AI股"。该行将快手科技目标价从71港元大幅上调至88港元，上行空 间达22%，并重申快手为中国数字娱乐板块首选股。报告强调，快手"不光关乎（AI大模型）可灵"，其核心广告业务增速加快以及人工智能对广 告的提振同样被低估。 可灵业务前景被大幅上调 摩根大通对快手旗下AI视频生成工具可灵的增长前景展现出强烈信心。该行将可灵2025年和2026年的收入预期分别从7.5亿元和12亿元人民币，大 幅上调61%至12亿元和19亿元人民币。 外卖业务采用轻资产模式 针对市场对快手进入外卖行业的担忧，摩根大通认为这是过度反应。据该行分析，快手8月初在其app本地服务界面上线"外卖"入口，但采用的是 以聚合为中心的轻资产模式。 具体而言，快手主要利用与美团等成熟企业的合作关系，而不是建立自营物流。快手的外卖服务发挥流量入口作用，将用户导向第三方平台来进 行履约和配送。摩根大通认为，这种轻资产业务模式可最大限度地减少前期投资，并可能通过收取流量入口服务佣金为快手带来额外变现机会。 这一乐观预期基 ...