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固德威:业绩低于预期,合同负债大增预示业绩有望恢复-20250429
BOCOM International· 2025-04-29 12:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of RMB 43.30, indicating a potential upside of 5.5% from the current price of RMB 41.05 [1][4][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance has been below expectations, with a significant increase in contract liabilities suggesting a potential recovery in future performance. The European market's slow recovery has impacted the company's results, but strong competitiveness in products remains evident [2][7]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.738 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net loss expected at RMB 62 million, which aligns with preliminary earnings reports but is below prior expectations [7][13]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 72% and 42% respectively, reflecting the challenges faced in the current market environment [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7.353 billion in 2023, RMB 6.738 billion in 2024, RMB 8.022 billion in 2025, RMB 8.945 billion in 2026, and RMB 10.508 billion in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 56.1% in 2023 followed by a decline in 2024 [3][13]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 62 million in 2024 to RMB 170 million in 2025, and further to RMB 457 million in 2026, with a projected net profit of RMB 787 million in 2027 [3][13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.52 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 0.25 in 2024, and recovering to RMB 0.70 in 2025, with a long-term growth trajectory expected thereafter [3][15]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has seen a 52-week high of RMB 77.39 and a low of RMB 37.56, with a current market capitalization of approximately RMB 6.52 billion [6][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 5.51 million shares, indicating a reasonable level of market activity [6]. Segment Performance - The domestic business has shown a revenue increase of 58% to RMB 4.69 billion, while the high-margin European business has seen a decline in revenue to RMB 0.94 billion, primarily due to increased costs and lower sales [7][8]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in contract liabilities, reaching a historical high of RMB 4.4 billion, which is expected to support future revenue recovery [7][8].
固德威(688390):固德威(688390CH)
BOCOM International· 2025-04-29 12:07
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of RMB 43.30, indicating a potential upside of 5.5% from the current price of RMB 41.05 [1][4][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance has been below expectations, with a significant increase in contract liabilities suggesting a potential recovery in future performance. The European market's slow recovery has impacted the company's results, but strong competitiveness in products remains evident [2][7]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.738 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net loss expected at RMB 62 million, which aligns with preliminary earnings reports but is below prior expectations [3][7]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 72% and 42% respectively, reflecting the challenges faced in the current market environment [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7.353 billion in 2023, RMB 6.738 billion in 2024, RMB 8.022 billion in 2025, RMB 8.945 billion in 2026, and RMB 10.508 billion in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 56.1% in 2023 followed by a decline in 2024 [3][13]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 62 million in 2024 to RMB 170 million in 2025, with a projected increase to RMB 457 million in 2026 and RMB 787 million in 2027 [3][13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 3.52 in 2023, a loss of RMB 0.25 in 2024, and then recovering to RMB 0.70 in 2025, RMB 1.88 in 2026, and RMB 3.25 in 2027 [3][15]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has a 52-week high of RMB 77.39 and a low of RMB 37.56, with a current market capitalization of approximately RMB 6.52 billion [6][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 5.51 million shares, indicating a relatively active trading environment [6].
固德威(688390):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:业绩承压,静待海外需求修复
EBSCN· 2025-04-29 09:44
Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" due to temporary pressure on the company's performance [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.738 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -62 million yuan [1]. - The company's energy storage inverter and battery business saw significant revenue declines in 2024, with the inverter business down 70.53% and the battery business down 45.57% [2]. - The household system sales business grew rapidly, achieving a revenue of 3.06 billion yuan in 2024, up 84.96% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Germany, Italy, and Australia, which is expected to gradually improve revenue from energy storage products as overseas demand recovers [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.738 billion yuan, with a net profit of -62 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of -194 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.882 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.13%, but a net profit of -28 million yuan [1]. Business Segments - The energy storage inverter business generated 462 million yuan in revenue in 2024, down 70.53% year-on-year, while the energy storage battery business generated 473 million yuan, down 45.57% [2]. - The photovoltaic inverter business revenue was 2.217 billion yuan in 2024, down 22.5%, with a gross margin of 19.78%, a decrease of 9.65 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The household system sales business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 3.06 billion yuan in 2024, and a gross margin of 14.11%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 199 million yuan, 375 million yuan, and 564 million yuan respectively, reflecting a 79% and 68% downward adjustment for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 50 for 2025, 27 for 2026, and 18 for 2027 [3].
固德威(688390):2024年报、2025一季报点评:25Q1环比略有改善,Q2持续环增,全年出货有望高增
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-29 09:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a slight improvement in Q1 2025 compared to the previous quarter, with continued growth anticipated in Q2, leading to a significant increase in annual shipments [1] - The report highlights that the company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 6.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -0.618 billion yuan, a decline of 107.25% [1] - For 2025, the company is forecasted to achieve a revenue of 9.334 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.53%, and a net profit of 0.353 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 671.66% [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is 7.353 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 6.738 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 9.334 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The net profit for 2023 is 0.852 billion yuan, expected to drop to -0.618 billion yuan in 2024, before rebounding to 0.353 billion yuan in 2025 [1] Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 3.51 yuan, which is expected to fall to -0.25 yuan in 2024, and then rise to 1.46 yuan in 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 28.18 for 2025, decreasing to 19.75 in 2026 and further to 14.19 in 2027 [1] Market and Operational Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in shipments due to strong domestic demand and overseas market improvements, with a forecast of 800,000 units shipped in 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 30% [9] - The report indicates that the company's energy storage shipments are anticipated to double in 2025, with significant growth expected in Q2 of that year [9] - The household system segment is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenue of 3.06 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 85% [9]