证券研究报告 光伏电池组件逆变器出口月报 光伏电池组件逆变器出口月报 （25年5月） 长城证券产业金融研究院 分析师：于夕朦S1070520030003 吴念峻S1070524070003 评级（强于大市） 2025年6月25日 核心观点 www.cgws.com 2 ◼ 亚洲光储持续景气，欧洲市场回归合理。（1）2025年5月，中国太阳能电池片组件合计出口额为24.07亿 美元，同比-14.8%，环比+7%，以infolink均价测算对应合计出口量为32.79GW，同比+22%，环比+12.7%。 欧洲市场复苏节奏持续，需求与补库齐振，传统国家表现相对持稳，东欧国家支撑需求增量，5月国内出 口欧洲光伏电池组件9.7GW，继续创造最近数月的新高，环比+7.38%，新兴市场百花齐放景气度延续，亚 洲市场电池组件出货节重回正轨，非洲在新市场的驱动下维持可观的同比增速，5月欧洲以外市场实现电 池组件出口23.09GW，同比+44.83%，环比+15.16%。（2）逆变器方面，2025年5月国内出口总额8.31亿美 元，同比/环比+6.52%/2.63%，出口规模达589.94万台，同比/环比+26.18%/30.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" due to temporary pressure on the company's performance [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.738 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -62 million yuan [1]. - The company's energy storage inverter and battery business saw significant revenue declines in 2024, with the inverter business down 70.53% and the battery business down 45.57% [2]. - The household system sales business grew rapidly, achieving a revenue of 3.06 billion yuan in 2024, up 84.96% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Germany, Italy, and Australia, which is expected to gradually improve revenue from energy storage products as overseas demand recovers [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.738 billion yuan, with a net profit of -62 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of -194 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.882 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.13%, but a net profit of -28 million yuan [1]. Business Segments - The energy storage inverter business generated 462 million yuan in revenue in 2024, down 70.53% year-on-year, while the energy storage battery business generated 473 million yuan, down 45.57% [2]. - The photovoltaic inverter business revenue was 2.217 billion yuan in 2024, down 22.5%, with a gross margin of 19.78%, a decrease of 9.65 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The household system sales business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 3.06 billion yuan in 2024, and a gross margin of 14.11%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 199 million yuan, 375 million yuan, and 564 million yuan respectively, reflecting a 79% and 68% downward adjustment for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 50 for 2025, 27 for 2026, and 18 for 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 77.857 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.76%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.036 billion RMB, up 16.92% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous expectations due to strong profitability in the energy storage business [1][5]. - The company is a global leader in the solar and energy storage industry, with a significant increase in domestic and international orders since 2024, providing strong support for performance in 2025 [1][5]. - The company’s energy storage revenue reached 24.96 billion RMB in 2024, a 40.3% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.7%, driven by cost reductions in manufacturing and battery cells [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 27.911 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47%. The net profit for the same period was 3.437 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 19.036 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 51%, while the net profit reached 3.826 billion RMB, up 83% year-on-year [2]. Energy Storage Segment - The company’s energy storage shipments in 2024 reached 28 GWh, a significant increase of 167% year-on-year, with an estimated sales volume of 25 GWh, leading to a unit price of approximately 0.96 RMB per Wh, down 43% year-on-year due to battery cell price reductions [3]. - In Q1 2025, energy storage shipments surged to 12 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 470%, maintaining profitability levels similar to 2024, primarily due to confirmed revenue from the Saudi energy storage project and export activities to the U.S. [3]. Photovoltaic Inverter Segment - The company’s revenue from photovoltaic inverters in 2024 was 29.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with a gross margin of 30.9% [4]. - The sales volume of photovoltaic inverters reached 147 GW in 2024, a 13% increase year-on-year, with a unit price of approximately 0.20 RMB per W, down 7% year-on-year [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 12.025 billion RMB, 13.557 billion RMB, and 15.209 billion RMB respectively, with a target price of 92.80 RMB based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025 [5][9].