光储行业

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光伏电池组件逆变器出口月报(25年8月)-20250923
Great Wall Securities· 2025-09-23 08:16
Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - In August 2025, China's solar cell module exports reached $2.921 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% and a month-on-month increase of 31.4%, with an estimated export volume of 40.42 GW. The focus of domestic manufacturers has shifted to overseas markets due to domestic policy changes and a surge in demand [2] - The inverter exports totaled $878 million in August 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.93% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.63%. The export volume reached 3.8461 million units, down 27.26% year-on-year and 16.39% month-on-month. The European market is stabilizing, while demand in Asia continues to adjust [2] - The solar storage industry has seen a decline in market conditions over the past year, but 2024-2025 may represent a bottoming period for industry profits. The balance of supply and demand is expected to improve, particularly for inverters, which have higher competitive barriers [3] Summary by Sections Export Data - In August 2025, the export volume of solar cell modules to Europe was 11.61 GW, with year-on-year growth of 39.41% and month-on-month growth of 23.84%. Emerging markets are showing significant growth, with exports outside Europe reaching 28.81 GW, a year-on-year increase of 67.77% and a month-on-month increase of 36.54% [2] - Specific provincial data shows that Zhejiang exported 1.4482 million inverters in August, a month-on-month decrease of 24.1%, while Jiangsu and Guangdong also reported declines in export volumes [2][3]
首航新能(301658):首次覆盖:布局工商储+大储,受益澳洲户储增长
Shanghai Aijian Securities· 2025-09-05 07:49
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in household storage in Australia and the increasing demand for industrial and commercial storage solutions. The report highlights that the company's profits are at a low point but are expected to rebound due to favorable market conditions [5]. - The company specializes in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage products, holding significant market shares globally. The report anticipates growth driven by global demand, expansion into emerging markets, and the introduction of high-power products [5][20]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,743 million - 2024: 2,711 million - 2025E: 2,897 million - 2026E: 3,456 million - 2027E: 4,320 million - The expected growth rates for total revenue are -16.0% in 2023, -27.6% in 2024, followed by a recovery with 6.9% in 2025, 19.3% in 2026, and 25.0% in 2027 [4][26]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is: - 2023: 341 million - 2024: 259 million - 2025E: 271 million - 2026E: 386 million - 2027E: 503 million - The net profit growth rates are -59.8% in 2023, -24.1% in 2024, with a recovery to 4.9% in 2025, 42.1% in 2026, and 30.6% in 2027 [4][26]. Industry and Company Situation - The company is positioned as a leader in the differentiated niche market of household energy storage in Europe, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector due to global carbon neutrality efforts [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the European household storage market is stabilizing, the demand for industrial and commercial storage is rapidly increasing, which the company is well-positioned to capitalize on [5][20]. - The Australian household storage market is projected to grow significantly following government subsidies, with the company already establishing a local subsidiary to enhance service delivery [5][20]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes steady growth in global photovoltaic demand and a recovery in the European household storage market, with expected revenue growth rates for the company's grid-connected inverter business of 5% in 2025, 18% in 2026, and 25% in 2027 [5]. - For energy storage inverters and batteries, the anticipated revenue growth rates are 8% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 25% in 2027 [5].
锦浪科技(300763):25Q2业绩环比显著改善,三大业务齐头并进
Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-20 12:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.79 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 600 million yuan, up 71.0% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 2.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.0%. The net profit for Q2 was 410 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 109.3% [5][13]. Business Performance - The company's photovoltaic and energy storage inverter business has seen a recovery in profitability, with significant growth in overseas markets expected to support performance [5][17]. - The grid-connected inverter business generated 1.82 billion yuan in revenue in H1 2025, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year, but with a gross margin of 26.1%, up 7.6 percentage points year-on-year. The sales volume reached 466,000 units, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [14]. - The energy storage inverter business experienced rapid expansion, achieving 790 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 313.5%, with a gross margin of 30.3%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [15]. - The distributed photovoltaic business steadily developed, generating 810 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with a gross margin of 58.0%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [16]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.96 billion yuan, 9.32 billion yuan, and 10.82 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.7%, 17.1%, and 16.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.19 billion yuan, 1.49 billion yuan, and 1.92 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 72.1%, 25.6%, and 28.5% [17][18].
宏发股份(600885):高压直流继电器景气驱动,公司业绩稳步增长
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-04 05:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7][8] Core Views - The company is a global leader in the relay industry, continuously increasing its global market share and achieving steady growth in performance. The report maintains the original profit forecast, expecting the company to achieve net profits of 1.939 billion, 2.121 billion, and 2.339 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 19%, 9%, and 10% respectively [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 964 million yuan, up 14.2% year-on-year. The gross margin was 34.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin remained flat at 15.3% [3][4]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.5%. The net profit for Q2 was 550 million yuan, up 13% year-on-year and 35% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin for Q2 was 34.6%, up 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and the net margin was 16.8%, up 3.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. Business Segment Performance - The high-voltage direct current relay segment is expected to contribute a revenue growth rate of 35%-40% year-on-year in 2025, driven by the high demand in the new energy vehicle industry. The company currently holds a global market share of over 40% in this segment [4][5]. - The traditional relay segment is also expected to grow steadily, with household appliance relays projected to see a year-on-year shipment increase of 5%-10% in 2025. The new energy storage relay segment is anticipated to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 35%-40% due to strong domestic and overseas demand [5]. - The automotive relay segment is expected to grow by 15%-20% year-on-year in 2025, benefiting from the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle industry and an increase in market share [5]. New Product Development - The company is promoting the development of new product categories, including low-voltage electrical appliances, film capacitors, connectors, current sensors, and fuses. Some of these products have already begun to be applied in various downstream applications and have passed certification, indicating potential for sustained growth in the future [6].
光储行业研究专题:储能行业运行总结新兴市场发展可期
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-31 07:46
Investment Rating - The report rates the energy storage industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][4][5] Core Insights - The energy storage industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant demand in emerging markets expected to drive future opportunities [2][3][4] - The domestic market in China is seeing a surge in energy storage system and battery shipments, with 110 GWh of systems and 265 GWh of batteries shipped in the first half of 2025, marking year-on-year increases of 101% and 128% respectively [1][3][56][57] - The U.S. market is also showing growth due to the "Inflation Reduction Act," which is expected to boost energy storage demand in the short term [1][27][29] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa, are anticipated to become significant export destinations for Chinese energy storage companies due to power shortages and supportive government policies [2][4][54] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, China achieved energy storage tenders of 126.3 GWh and winning bids of 189.8 GWh, reflecting year-on-year increases of 101% and 182% respectively [1][44] - The domestic energy storage system shipment reached 110 GWh, nearing the total for 2024, with expectations of over 200 GWh for the full year [56] - The domestic energy storage battery shipments were 265 GWh, with projections of over 500 GWh for the year, indicating a growth rate of nearly 50% [57] International Market Trends - The U.S. energy storage market is projected to grow, with a 30% year-on-year increase in installed capacity in the first half of 2025 [1][27] - In Europe, energy storage demand is also rising, with Germany showing a 130% increase in front-of-the-meter storage installations in the first half of 2025 [1][36] - Emerging markets are expected to see explosive growth in energy storage installations, with projections of 37 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 256% [2][51] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the energy storage supply chain, including Yangguang Electric, Ningde Times, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in both domestic and international markets [4][5][113]
光储行业研究专题:储能行业运行总结,新兴市场发展可期
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-31 04:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the energy storage industry [5][4][6]. Core Insights - The energy storage industry is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in emerging markets, driven by power shortages and supportive government policies [2][4][54]. - The demand for energy storage systems is expected to remain strong in 2025, with significant increases in both domestic and international markets [1][3][56]. - The "Big and Beautiful" act in the U.S. is anticipated to boost short-term demand for energy storage, although a decline in demand may occur post-2026 [27][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, domestic energy storage system shipments reached 110 GWh, nearly matching the total for 2024, with battery shipments at 265 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 128% [1][56]. - The U.S. saw a 30% year-on-year increase in installed front-of-the-meter storage, reaching 5.65 GW in the first half of 2025 [1][27]. Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are projected to become significant export destinations for domestic energy storage companies, with orders from the Middle East, Australia, and East Asia reaching 35 GWh, 33 GWh, and 24 GWh respectively [2][51]. - The report forecasts a substantial increase in energy storage demand in regions facing power shortages, such as Southeast Asia, South Africa, and India [54][55]. Global Market Outlook - The global energy storage market is expected to see new installed capacity of 221 GWh in 2025, with a projected market value of 1787 billion yuan [3][96]. - Emerging markets are anticipated to achieve a cumulative installed capacity of 40.5 GWh by 2025, reflecting a 293% year-on-year growth [3][96]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the energy storage supply chain, including Yangguang Electric, Ningde Times, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, due to their strong market positions and growth potential [4][113].
光伏电池组件逆变器出口月报(25年6月)-20250722
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-22 10:08
Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The commercial and industrial energy storage sector is experiencing a boom, while the rhythm of photovoltaic shipments is adjusting. In June 2025, China's total export value of solar cells and modules was $2.2 billion, down 24.2% year-on-year and 8.6% month-on-month, with an estimated total export volume of 30.03 GW, up 9.3% year-on-year and down 8.4% month-on-month [2] - The inverter exports in June 2025 totaled $917 million, with a year-on-year and month-on-month change of -0.06% and +10.64%, respectively. The export scale reached 5.1289 million units, down 12.4% year-on-year and 13.06% month-on-month [2] - The European inverter channel status has returned to health, with strong demand for commercial energy storage. The overall export value remains stable above 2 billion yuan, with active demand in key Asian markets such as India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Southeast Asia [2] - The past year has seen a decline in the photovoltaic storage industry, with no clear bottom performance in financial reports. However, the production changes and price trends suggest that 2024-2025 may represent a bottoming period for industry profits [3] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Canadian Solar, JA Solar, Junda Co., Sungrow Power, Foster, Deye, Jinlang Technology, Shenghong Co., Dike Co., and Flat Glass [3] Summary by Sections - In June 2025, the export volume of photovoltaic modules to Europe was 9.03 GW, down 6.95% month-on-month, while exports to non-European markets reached 221 GW, up 19.26% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights the performance of various provinces in inverter exports, with Zhejiang exporting 1.9836 million units, Jiangsu 426,500 units, Guangdong 1.6482 million units, and Anhui 59,400 units in June 2025 [2] - The report emphasizes that the supply-side issues in the photovoltaic industry have led to losses in old capacities and delays in new projects, with irrational competition and policy guidance accelerating capacity clearance [3]
光伏电池组件逆变器出口月报(25年5月)-20250625
Great Wall Securities· 2025-06-25 05:21
Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The solar storage industry in Asia remains vibrant, while the European market is returning to a reasonable state. In May 2025, China's total export value of solar cells and modules was $2.407 billion, down 14.8% year-on-year but up 7% month-on-month, with an estimated total export volume of 32.79 GW, up 22% year-on-year and 12.7% month-on-month [2][3] - The European market continues to recover, with demand and inventory replenishment both showing positive trends. In May, China's exports of solar modules to Europe reached 9.7 GW, marking a new high in recent months, up 7.38% month-on-month. The export volume to markets outside Europe was 23.09 GW, up 44.83% year-on-year and 15.16% month-on-month [2][3] - In terms of inverters, the total export value in May 2025 was $831 million, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 6.52% and 2.63%, respectively. The export scale reached 5.8994 million units, up 26.18% year-on-year and 30.25% month-on-month [2][3] Summary by Sections Export Data - In May 2025, the Netherlands exported 3.57 GW of solar modules, down 36.94% year-on-year and down 0.56% month-on-month. Spain exported 0.74 GW, down 16.23% year-on-year and down 17.40% month-on-month. Germany's exports were 0.49 GW, up 24.95% year-on-year and 14.68% month-on-month [14] - Notable performances include Pakistan, which exported 2.45 GW, up 156.30% year-on-year, and Australia, with 0.64 GW, up 57.84% year-on-year [14] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the solar storage industry has experienced a decline in market conditions over the past year, with no clear bottom in performance metrics. However, the period of 2024-2025 may represent a bottoming out for industry profits, with potential differentiation in financial performance among companies [3] - The demand for solar storage installations globally is driven by grid parity and energy transition, while supply-side issues have led to losses in older capacities and delays in new projects. The inverter segment is expected to recover first due to higher competitive barriers, indicating a more favorable market structure and larger market space for leading solar storage companies [3]
阳光电源(300274):光储行业的破局者,用强势业绩再证龙头实力
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-05 23:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 77.857 billion yuan for 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.036 billion yuan, which is a 17% increase year-on-year. In Q4 2024, the revenue reached 27.911 billion yuan, also up 8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.437 billion yuan, marking a 55% year-on-year increase [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 19.036 billion yuan, a significant 51% year-on-year growth, while the net profit was 3.826 billion yuan, reflecting an 83% year-on-year increase [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s inverter business generated a revenue of 29.1 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with solar inverter sales of 147 GW, up 13% year-on-year, and wind power converters exceeding 44 GW, up 38% year-on-year. The gross margin for the inverter business was 30.9%, down 1.9 percentage points due to accounting changes [8]. - The energy storage system business saw a revenue of 25 billion yuan in 2024, a 40% increase year-on-year, with a total shipment of 28 GWh, significantly up from the previous year. The gross margin improved to 36.7%, up 4.1 percentage points, benefiting from brand strength and lower raw material prices [8]. - The company’s power station development generated a revenue of 21 billion yuan, down 15% year-on-year, but the gross margin increased to 19.4%, up 3.1 percentage points, due to a higher proportion of quality projects and improved project management [8]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12 to 13 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 10 times. The strong performance in Q1 2025 is attributed to the favorable profitability of the energy storage business, while the inverter business is expected to maintain stable profitability [8].
固德威(688390):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:业绩承压,静待海外需求修复
EBSCN· 2025-04-29 09:44
Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" due to temporary pressure on the company's performance [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.738 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -62 million yuan [1]. - The company's energy storage inverter and battery business saw significant revenue declines in 2024, with the inverter business down 70.53% and the battery business down 45.57% [2]. - The household system sales business grew rapidly, achieving a revenue of 3.06 billion yuan in 2024, up 84.96% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Germany, Italy, and Australia, which is expected to gradually improve revenue from energy storage products as overseas demand recovers [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.738 billion yuan, with a net profit of -62 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of -194 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.882 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.13%, but a net profit of -28 million yuan [1]. Business Segments - The energy storage inverter business generated 462 million yuan in revenue in 2024, down 70.53% year-on-year, while the energy storage battery business generated 473 million yuan, down 45.57% [2]. - The photovoltaic inverter business revenue was 2.217 billion yuan in 2024, down 22.5%, with a gross margin of 19.78%, a decrease of 9.65 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The household system sales business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 3.06 billion yuan in 2024, and a gross margin of 14.11%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 199 million yuan, 375 million yuan, and 564 million yuan respectively, reflecting a 79% and 68% downward adjustment for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 50 for 2025, 27 for 2026, and 18 for 2027 [3].