证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 30 日 行业及产业 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《锂电行业跟踪：动力电池和储能电池需求旺 盛，锂电材料价格回升》2025-12-23 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：AI 与数据中 心景气延续，电力设备需求持续高企》 2025-12-22 《光储行业跟踪：11 月光伏组件出口额同比高 增，海外需求持续旺盛》2025-12-22 《SOFC 行业深度：北美数据中心电力短缺， SOFC 迎来快速增长》2025-12-19 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：AI 及数据中 心维持高景气，电力设备需求旺盛》 2025-12-16 证券分析师 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 联系人 11 月国内光伏装机同比增长，双玻组件 价格小幅上涨 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com ——光储行业跟踪 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：1）光伏组件：据 SMM，2 ...

排产：1）光伏组件：据SMM，2025年11月光伏组件整体产量环比10月下降2.43%。国内方面，12月终 端装机进展不及企业心理预期，同时组件价格的上涨带来下游企业采买的抵触情绪，国内组件库存水平 止降转增；海外方面，终端进入淡季，且出口退税的影响淡化，海外需求开始大幅下降，企业同步下修 排产。2）电芯：据大东时代智库（TD）预测，2025年12月中国市场动力+储能+消费类电池排产量 220GWh，环比增长5.3%，其中储能电芯排产占比约为35.3%；2025年12月全球市场动力+储能+消费类 电池排产量235GWh，环比增长3.1%，动力电池排产阶段性承压，而储能电池则延续高增长态势。 价格：1）光伏：截至2025年12月17日，多晶硅致密料价格较上周持平，报52.00元/kg；183N单晶硅片 主流均价较上周持平，报1.18元/片；TOPCon双玻组件价格持平，报0.69元/W。2）储能：2025年11月， 国内磷酸铁锂电池储能系统（不含工商业储能柜）报价主要集中在0.4452-0.6828元/Wh区间内，平均报 价0.5721元/Wh，中标加权均价0.4912元/Wh，环比-6.4%。其中，2h锂电储 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 22 日 行业及产业 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《SOFC 行业深度：北美数据中心电力短缺， SOFC 迎来快速增长》2025-12-19 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：AI 及数据中 心维持高景气，电力设备需求旺盛》 2025-12-16 《光储行业跟踪：11 月国内新型储能新增招标 规模环比大增，储能电芯持续高景气》 2025-12-16 《锂电行业跟踪：11 月国内动力电池装车量和 出口量同比增长，锂电材料价格趋于稳定》 2025-12-15 《数据中心及 AI 景气上行，电力设备需求持续 增长》2025-12-12 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 联系人 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com ——光储行业跟踪 11 月光伏组件出口额同比高增，海外需 求持续旺盛 目录 | 1. 11 月国内光伏组件产量环比下降，储能需求旺盛 ...

需求：1）海外：据海关总署，10月光伏组件出口额约22.58亿美元，同比增长4.39%，环比下降 19.34%。1-10月累计出口额234.73亿美元，同比下降4.89%。2025年10月，国内光伏组件出口量约12.83 亿个，同比增长73.14%，环比降低0.97%。2025年10月逆变器出口额6.77亿美元，同比增加2.76%，环比 下降5.02%。1-10月累计出口额74.35亿美元，同比增加17.45%。2025年1-10月国内光伏逆变器出口金额 在区域结构上存在差异。欧洲以29.1亿美元居首；亚洲地区次之，出口额为25.83亿美元，同时南美等新 兴市场提供了多元化增长潜力。2025年10月，中国逆变器出口澳大利亚金额同比增长率超200%，有望 提供新的增长空间。2）国内：2025年10月国内光伏新增装机量为12.6GW，环比增长30.4%，同比下降 38.3%。国内1-10月累积新增光伏装机252.87GW，同比增长39.5%。2025年10月，储能EPC/PC（含直流 侧设备）、储能系统和储能电芯新增招标项目共计12.7GW/38.7GWh，容量规模同比增长85%，环比下 降11.24%。 投资建 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" [2][36]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a decline in domestic photovoltaic module production in November, while the demand for energy storage remains robust [2][5]. - The production forecast for December indicates a 5.3% month-on-month increase in battery production, with energy storage cells accounting for approximately 35.3% of the total [2][12]. - The report suggests focusing on companies related to photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Sunshine Power, Nandu Power, and others [2][36]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the overall production of photovoltaic modules decreased by 2.43% compared to October [2][5]. - The forecast for December indicates a total production of 220 GWh for the Chinese market, with a month-on-month growth of 5.3% [2][12]. Prices - As of December 3, 2025, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers decreased slightly to 1.18 CNY/piece [2][12]. - The average bid price for lithium iron phosphate battery energy storage systems in October was 0.5547 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 10% month-on-month increase [2][20]. Domestic Demand - In October 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation capacity increased by 30.4% month-on-month, totaling 12.6 GW, while the cumulative installation for the year reached 252.87 GW, a 39.5% year-on-year increase [2][22]. - The energy storage sector saw a significant increase in new tender projects, with a year-on-year growth of 85% [2][28]. Overseas Demand - In October 2025, the export value of photovoltaic modules was approximately 2.258 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.39% [2][32]. - The report notes a significant growth potential in emerging markets, particularly in Australia, where inverter exports have seen a substantial increase [2][34].

Core Viewpoint - The solar and energy storage industry is experiencing mixed production trends, with potential for recovery in production levels due to price rebounds and profit restoration [1][2]. Production - Solar module production has been stable since the second half of 2025, with November production expected to be below 44.5 GW, reflecting a decrease from October [1][2]. - In the battery sector, the production forecast for December 2025 indicates a total of 220 GWh for the Chinese market, a 5.3% increase, with energy storage cells accounting for approximately 35.3% of this total [2]. Pricing - As of November 26, 2025, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers decreased slightly to 1.20 CNY/piece [3]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in October 2025 was 0.5547 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous month [3]. Demand - In October 2025, the export value of solar modules was approximately $2.258 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.39%, while cumulative exports from January to October totaled $23.473 billion, a decrease of 4.89% [4]. - Domestic solar installations in October 2025 reached 12.6 GW, a 30.4% increase month-on-month, with cumulative installations for the year at 252.87 GW, a 39.5% year-on-year increase [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on solar and energy storage-related companies, recommending specific stocks such as Sunshine Power, Nandu Power, Tongrun Equipment, Huashengchang, and Shouhang New Energy [5].

Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed performance in the photovoltaic (PV) component production and pricing, with potential for recovery in profits if prices rebound [1][2][3] Production Summary - PV Component Production: As of November 2025, domestic PV component production is expected to be below 44.5 GW, with leading companies showing slight increases while most others are reducing output to clear inventory [1] - Battery Production: In November 2025, the production of power, storage, and consumer batteries in China is projected to reach 209 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 64.6% [1] Pricing Summary - PV Pricing: As of November 21, 2025, the price of polysilicon remains stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers has decreased to 1.28 CNY/piece [1] - Energy Storage Pricing: In October 2025, the average bid price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems is 0.5547 CNY/Wh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% [1] Demand Summary - Export Performance: In October 2025, the export value of PV components was approximately $2.258 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.39% but a month-on-month decline of 19.34% [2] - Domestic Installation: In September 2025, the domestic PV installation capacity was 9.7 GW, a month-on-month increase of 31.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 53.8% [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on energy storage-related companies due to the significant year-on-year growth in storage project tenders, recommending companies such as Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) and Nandu Power (300068.SZ) [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - In August 2025, China's solar cell module exports reached $2.921 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% and a month-on-month increase of 31.4%, with an estimated export volume of 40.42 GW. The focus of domestic manufacturers has shifted to overseas markets due to domestic policy changes and a surge in demand [2] - The inverter exports totaled $878 million in August 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.93% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.63%. The export volume reached 3.8461 million units, down 27.26% year-on-year and 16.39% month-on-month. The European market is stabilizing, while demand in Asia continues to adjust [2] - The solar storage industry has seen a decline in market conditions over the past year, but 2024-2025 may represent a bottoming period for industry profits. The balance of supply and demand is expected to improve, particularly for inverters, which have higher competitive barriers [3] Summary by Sections Export Data - In August 2025, the export volume of solar cell modules to Europe was 11.61 GW, with year-on-year growth of 39.41% and month-on-month growth of 23.84%. Emerging markets are showing significant growth, with exports outside Europe reaching 28.81 GW, a year-on-year increase of 67.77% and a month-on-month increase of 36.54% [2] - Specific provincial data shows that Zhejiang exported 1.4482 million inverters in August, a month-on-month decrease of 24.1%, while Jiangsu and Guangdong also reported declines in export volumes [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in household storage in Australia and the increasing demand for industrial and commercial storage solutions. The report highlights that the company's profits are at a low point but are expected to rebound due to favorable market conditions [5]. - The company specializes in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage products, holding significant market shares globally. The report anticipates growth driven by global demand, expansion into emerging markets, and the introduction of high-power products [5][20]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,743 million - 2024: 2,711 million - 2025E: 2,897 million - 2026E: 3,456 million - 2027E: 4,320 million - The expected growth rates for total revenue are -16.0% in 2023, -27.6% in 2024, followed by a recovery with 6.9% in 2025, 19.3% in 2026, and 25.0% in 2027 [4][26]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is: - 2023: 341 million - 2024: 259 million - 2025E: 271 million - 2026E: 386 million - 2027E: 503 million - The net profit growth rates are -59.8% in 2023, -24.1% in 2024, with a recovery to 4.9% in 2025, 42.1% in 2026, and 30.6% in 2027 [4][26]. Industry and Company Situation - The company is positioned as a leader in the differentiated niche market of household energy storage in Europe, with significant growth expected in the energy storage sector due to global carbon neutrality efforts [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the European household storage market is stabilizing, the demand for industrial and commercial storage is rapidly increasing, which the company is well-positioned to capitalize on [5][20]. - The Australian household storage market is projected to grow significantly following government subsidies, with the company already establishing a local subsidiary to enhance service delivery [5][20]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes steady growth in global photovoltaic demand and a recovery in the European household storage market, with expected revenue growth rates for the company's grid-connected inverter business of 5% in 2025, 18% in 2026, and 25% in 2027 [5]. - For energy storage inverters and batteries, the anticipated revenue growth rates are 8% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 25% in 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.79 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 600 million yuan, up 71.0% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 2.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.0%. The net profit for Q2 was 410 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 109.3% [5][13]. Business Performance - The company's photovoltaic and energy storage inverter business has seen a recovery in profitability, with significant growth in overseas markets expected to support performance [5][17]. - The grid-connected inverter business generated 1.82 billion yuan in revenue in H1 2025, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year, but with a gross margin of 26.1%, up 7.6 percentage points year-on-year. The sales volume reached 466,000 units, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [14]. - The energy storage inverter business experienced rapid expansion, achieving 790 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 313.5%, with a gross margin of 30.3%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [15]. - The distributed photovoltaic business steadily developed, generating 810 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with a gross margin of 58.0%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [16]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.96 billion yuan, 9.32 billion yuan, and 10.82 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.7%, 17.1%, and 16.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.19 billion yuan, 1.49 billion yuan, and 1.92 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 72.1%, 25.6%, and 28.5% [17][18].