证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 03 月 02 日 相关研究 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外主要云 厂商资本开支持续增长，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-09 《光储行业跟踪：全国性储能容量电价机制出 台，储能系统价格持续上涨》2026-02-09 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下行，储能电芯 均价上行》2026-02-09 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：甲骨文资本 开支环比高增，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-03 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下跌，储能电芯 均价持续上涨》2026-02-03 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 联系人 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com 行业及产业 1 月国内新型储能新增投运装机规模同 比高增，TOPCon 双玻组件价格稳定 ——光储行业跟踪 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：1）光伏组件：据 InfoLin ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in the solar and energy storage sectors, with significant export figures and production adjustments anticipated due to policy changes and market dynamics [1][4][5]. Production - Solar module production is expected to decrease by 13.58% month-on-month in December 2025, while there are plans for increased production due to export tax incentives, though actual implementation remains uncertain [2]. - Battery production for power, storage, and consumer applications is projected to be 188 GWh in February 2026, down 10.5% month-on-month, indicating a restructuring in supply with leading companies maintaining strong orders [2]. Pricing - As of February 4, 2026, the price of polysilicon remains stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers has decreased by approximately 7.41% to 1.25 CNY/piece [3]. - The average price of lithium battery storage systems in December 2025 is reported at 0.5882 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 2.82% increase month-on-month, with specific systems showing significant price variations [3]. Demand - In December 2025, solar module exports reached approximately $2.314 billion, marking an 18.22% year-on-year increase but a 4.05% month-on-month decline, while inverter exports totaled $839 million, up 26.12% year-on-year and 9.38% month-on-month [4]. - Domestic solar installations in November 2025 amounted to 22.02 GW, a 74.76% increase month-on-month, with cumulative installations for the year reaching 274.89 GW, a 33.25% year-on-year growth [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the cancellation of VAT export rebates for certain products starting in April 2026 may boost domestic demand for solar products in the short term and lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity in the long term [5]. - Companies such as Sungrow Power Supply (300274), Chint Power (002150), and Nandu Power (300068) are recommended for investment, along with a focus on CATL (300750) and EVE Energy (300014) [5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" [2][34]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of photovoltaic components and a decrease in lithium battery production in February 2026. The overall production of photovoltaic components is expected to decline by 13.58% month-on-month, while the production of lithium batteries is projected to decrease by 10.5% in China [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the establishment of a new pricing mechanism for independent energy storage capacity, which is expected to provide stable revenue for new energy storage solutions. This is part of a broader trend towards optimizing capacity structures in the renewable energy sector [2][32]. Summary by Sections Production - Photovoltaic component production is forecasted to decrease by 13.58% month-on-month in December 2025. The lithium battery production in China is expected to be 188 GWh, reflecting a 10.5% month-on-month decline [2][3][10]. Prices - As of January 28, 2026, the price of polysilicon remains stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of TOPCon double-glass components has increased by 3.07% to 0.74 CNY/W. The average price of lithium battery storage systems has risen by 2.82% to 0.5882 CNY/Wh [2][11][17]. Domestic Demand - In November 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation capacity reached 22.02 GW, a month-on-month increase of 74.76%. The cumulative installed capacity for the year reached 274.89 GW, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.25% [2][23]. Overseas Demand - In December 2025, the export value of photovoltaic components was approximately 2.314 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.22%. The inverter export value reached 839 million USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 26.12% [2][27][25].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" [3][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the export value of photovoltaic components, reaching approximately $2.314 billion in December 2025, which represents a year-on-year growth of 18.22% [3][31]. - The report indicates that the average price of lithium battery energy storage systems in December 2025 increased by 2.82% compared to the previous month, with a weighted average bid price rising by 6.39% [3][19]. - The domestic photovoltaic installation capacity in November 2025 was 22.02 GW, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 74.76% but a year-on-year decline of 11.92% [3][25]. Summary by Sections Production - The report notes a decrease in the overall production of photovoltaic components in November 2025, with a month-on-month decline of 2.43% and an expected further decrease of 14.77% in December 2025 [3][4]. Prices - As of January 21, 2026, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while the price of TOPCon double-glass components increased by approximately 0.99% to 0.72 CNY/W [3][11]. Domestic Demand - The cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.25% [3][25]. Overseas Demand - The report states that the export value of inverters in December 2025 was $839 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.12% and a month-on-month growth of 9.38% [3][29].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a decline in production and demand, with significant decreases expected in December 2025, influenced by export tax policies and market conditions [1][2]. Production - PV module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October, with a further expected decline of 14.77% in December [2]. - Battery production for January 2026 is projected at 210 GWh in China, down 4.55% month-on-month, with significant reductions in second-tier companies, while energy storage battery production remains stable or slightly increases [2]. Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while TOPCon dual-glass module prices increased by approximately 1.43% to 0.71 CNY/W [3]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 was 0.5721 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 6.4% decrease [3]. Demand - In November 2025, the export value of PV modules was approximately $2.412 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [4]. - Domestic PV installations in November 2025 reached 22.02 GW, a 74.76% increase month-on-month but an 11.92% decrease year-on-year [4]. Investment Recommendations - The expected cancellation of the export tax rebate for certain products in April 2026 may temporarily boost domestic PV product shipments, while also promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity [5]. - Companies to watch include Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Narada Power Source (300068.SZ), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Huashengchang (002980.SZ), and Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [2][38]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the demand for photovoltaic components, with exports reaching approximately $2.412 billion in November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [2]. - The report anticipates a short-term boost in domestic photovoltaic product shipments due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate starting April 2026, which may lead to the optimization of production capacity in the long term [2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies related to energy storage and photovoltaic sectors, specifically mentioning Yangguang Electric (300274.SZ), Nandu Power (300068.SZ), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Huashengchang (002980.SZ), and Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [2]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the overall production of photovoltaic components decreased by 2.43% compared to October, with a forecasted further decline of 14.77% in December due to returning to a period of weak terminal demand [2]. - The production forecast for January 2026 indicates a total of 210 GWh for the Chinese market in power, storage, and consumer batteries, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.55% [2]. Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of TOPCon double-glass components increased by approximately 1.43% to 0.71 CNY/W [2][11]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 was 0.5721 CNY/Wh, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.4% [2]. Domestic Demand - The domestic photovoltaic installation capacity in November 2025 was 22.02 GW, showing a month-on-month increase of 74.76% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.92% [2]. - Cumulative new photovoltaic installations from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.25% [2]. Overseas Demand - The report notes that the export value of photovoltaic inverters in November 2025 was $767 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.91% and a month-on-month increase of 13.29% [2]. - The report indicates that the export of photovoltaic components to Australia saw a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 177%, suggesting new growth opportunities in emerging markets [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in production and demand in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, with specific emphasis on the challenges faced by domestic and international markets, including rising component prices and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][2]. Production - Photovoltaic module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October 2025, with domestic installation progress in December falling short of expectations and rising component prices causing reluctance among downstream buyers [2] - In January 2026, China's production of power, storage, and consumer batteries is projected to be 210 GWh, a decrease of 4.55% month-on-month, primarily driven by a significant decline in second-tier enterprises [2] Prices - As of January 7, 2026, the price of polysilicon dense material increased by 3.85% to 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers rose by 12.00% to 1.40 CNY/piece [3] - In November 2025, the average price of lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems ranged from 0.4452 to 0.6828 CNY/Wh, with an average of 0.5721 CNY/Wh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.4% [3] Demand - In November 2025, the export value of photovoltaic modules reached approximately 2.412 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [4] - Domestic photovoltaic installations in November 2025 totaled 22.02 GW, representing a month-on-month growth of 74.76% but a year-on-year decline of 11.92% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on energy storage-related companies, recommending specific stocks such as Sungrow Power Supply (300274), Narada Power Source (300068), Tongrun Equipment (002150), Huashengchang (002980), and Shouhang New Energy (301658) [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Strong Buy" rating for the solar and energy storage sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on current trends and demand forecasts [2][39]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic solar installation capacity in November 2025 reached 22.02 GW, representing a month-on-month increase of 74.76% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.92% [2][3]. - The export value of solar modules in November 2025 was approximately $2.412 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for energy storage systems, with the average price of lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 ranging from 0.4452 to 0.6828 CNY/Wh, with an average price of 0.5721 CNY/Wh [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production - Solar module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October, while battery production for January 2026 is projected to be 210 GWh, a decrease of 4.55% month-on-month [2][3]. Pricing - As of December 24, 2025, the price of multi-crystalline silicon remained stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers increased by 5.93% to 1.25 CNY/piece [2][3]. Domestic Demand - The cumulative newly installed solar capacity from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.25% [2][3]. Overseas Demand - The report notes that the export value of inverters in November 2025 was $767 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.91% and a month-on-month increase of 13.29% [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in the production and demand for photovoltaic components, with a notable decrease in both domestic and overseas markets, while also indicating a mixed performance in battery production and pricing trends across different segments [1][2]. Production - Photovoltaic component production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October 2025, with domestic terminal installation progress falling short of expectations and rising component prices causing reluctance among downstream buyers [2] - In December 2025, the predicted production volume for power, storage, and consumer batteries in China is 220 GWh, reflecting a 5.3% month-on-month increase, with storage battery production accounting for approximately 35.3% [2] Pricing - As of December 17, 2025, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers was 1.18 CNY/piece, and TOPCon double-glass components also held steady at 0.69 CNY/W [3] - In November 2025, the average price of lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems ranged from 0.4452 to 0.6828 CNY/Wh, with an average price of 0.5721 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 6.4% decrease month-on-month [3] Demand - In November 2025, the export value of photovoltaic components reached approximately 2.412 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [4] - The cumulative export value from January to November 2025 was 25.885 billion USD, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.89% [4] - Domestic photovoltaic installations in October 2025 totaled 12.6 GW, representing a month-on-month increase of 30.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 38.3% [4] - The newly tendered capacity for EPC/PC (including DC-side equipment) and storage systems in November 2025 reached 21.8 GW/64 GWh, marking a monthly high for 2025 with a 65% increase month-on-month [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies related to the photovoltaic and storage sectors, recommending specific companies such as Sunshine Power, Nandu Power, Tongrun Equipment, Huashengchang, and Shouhang New Energy [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" based on the expected performance relative to the benchmark indices [2][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in overseas demand for photovoltaic components, with exports in November 2025 reaching approximately $2.412 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [2][24]. - Domestic production of photovoltaic components saw a month-on-month decline of 2.43% in November 2025, while the demand for energy storage remains robust, with a projected production of 220 GWh for December 2025, marking a 5.3% increase [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies involved in the solar and storage sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Sungrow Power (300274.SZ) and Nandu Power (300068.SZ) due to their potential growth in the current market environment [2][30]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the overall production of photovoltaic components decreased by 2.43% compared to October, while energy storage battery production is expected to grow significantly [2][10][11]. Prices - As of December 17, 2025, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price for TOPCon double-glass modules was reported at 0.69 CNY/W [2][7][12]. Domestic Demand - The domestic photovoltaic installation in October 2025 was 12.6 GW, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 30.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%. Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the total installed capacity reached 252.87 GW, up 39.5% year-on-year [2][22]. Overseas Demand - The report notes that the export value of photovoltaic components in November 2025 was approximately $2.412 billion, with a cumulative export value from January to November 2025 reaching $25.885 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.89% [2][26].