Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

经济观察报 记者 田国宝 常军是一名高收益债券投资人。他投资的一笔债券在2024年展期时，发行人为债券提供了两项增信措施：一笔2亿元的应收款和一个房地产项目公司的股 权。按照当时市场价格估算，这两项增信资产足以覆盖债券余额。 2亿元应收款原定于2025年5月底回款，发行人承诺优先用于偿债。但在回款前夕，发行人的另一名债权人通过司法途径要求直接划扣该笔应收款。虽然案件 仍在审理中，但回款已遥遥无期。 债券的另一项增信资产也面临不确定性。常军了解得知，该房地产项目在作为增信资产前，其项目公司股权及底层资产已质押给两家金融机构。即使处置增 信资产，债券持有人也只是第三顺位的受益人。 与常军有类似遭遇的债券投资人不在少数。2022年至2024年，为了避免爆雷，多数民营房企对债券进行展期，并提供了增信措施。但由于外部环境变化及内 部程序履行不到位等原因，部分债券的增信资产已处于"失效"状态。 增信悬空 常军投资的债券本金余额不足10亿元，增信资产包括两项：一是2亿元的应收款；二是价值超过20亿元的房地产项目股权。从账面价值看，即使发行人违 约，债权人理论上可通过处置增信资产收回投资。 实际情况并非如此。两项资产作为债券 ...