【环球网 记者 陈超】在商业地产市场整体趋缓的当下，写字楼市场正呈现"冰火两重天"的格局。多家房地产服务机构数据显示，多地写字楼租金持续承 压；然而，北京市场却展现出不同景象，2025年第三季度甲级写字楼净吸纳量创下新高，尤其以科技创新企业为需求主体的中关村子市场表现亮眼。 这番话确实点出了行业痛点。当拼多多、字节跳动等80后创始人已拥有专属总部，宇树科技、智元机器人等90后创业者正成为需求新主力时，一个关键问题 浮现了：这些通常偏爱中关村园区式办公的科技公司，为何要选择CBD的超甲级写字楼？ 孙晨星给出的答案是"灵活与融合"。据其介绍，Z3规划了约16%的物理可变空间，交付时无固定走廊，可灵活适配从共享办公到传统总部的多种模式，并能 提供三层连层的"空中总部"。共享配套的配比也提升至约10%，涵盖剧院、健身中心等设施，"这些是从与谷歌、亚马逊等企业的合作中观察到的趋势"。 为吸引注重体验的科技企业，项目在细节上进行了诸多考量：1.9米宽的超大玻璃旨在实现270度观景，双中空玻璃用以隔绝东三环的噪音，屋顶的"第五立 面"设计则将光伏发电功能与美学结合。项目亦已申请绿建三星、LEED铂金等可持续认证。 对于"为 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese office market is experiencing significant challenges, including oversupply, high vacancy rates, and declining rental prices, leading to a deep adjustment phase [1][2][3] - There is a notable market differentiation, with core areas in first-tier cities also facing tenant demands for rent reductions [2][3] - Financial risks are emerging due to low asset yields, shrinking valuations, and difficulties in large transactions and REITs exits, indicating potential debt defaults and increased bad debts for financial institutions [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The office market is under pressure with increasing supply and decreasing demand, resulting in a rise in vacancy rates and a decline in rental levels [2][3] - New emerging business districts are showing positive leasing performance due to high cost-effectiveness, despite overall market challenges [3][4] - The transition from a high-leverage model to a cash flow-oriented model in real estate is underway, with a focus on sustainable investment strategies [4][5] Group 2: Financial Risks and Recommendations - The need for careful evaluation of collateral values in mortgage lending is emphasized to prevent overvaluation and excessive lending [2][3] - Recommendations include reducing new office supply, promoting the conversion of old office buildings to rental housing, and enhancing operational efficiency [5][6] - The establishment of a multi-tiered REITs market is suggested to facilitate asset circulation and encourage long-term capital investment [4][6] Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - Government policies play a crucial role in the office market, with recent initiatives aimed at flexible land use and urban renewal to optimize space and functionality [7][8] - The flexibility in land use conversion is seen as a potential solution to alleviate the office market's challenges, allowing for the transformation of inefficient office spaces into long-term rental apartments [7][8] - The importance of enhancing collaboration among various government departments to adapt planning and zoning regulations to market changes is highlighted [6][7]

Core Insights - The conference focused on the current state of China's office market and potential financial risks, emphasizing the need for systemic prevention and resolution strategies [1][3] Market Conditions - China's office market is experiencing significant pressure due to oversupply, insufficient demand, high vacancy rates, and declining rental prices, leading to a deep adjustment phase [3] - The overall market is under pressure, with a notable decline in rental levels and an increase in vacancy rates, while supply continues to rise [4][9] Financial Risks - The low yield and shrinking valuations of office assets, combined with a slowdown in large transactions and difficulties in exit channels like REITs, indicate potential financial risks such as debt defaults and rising bad debts in financial institutions [3][4] - Emphasis on the importance of cautious valuation practices for mortgage loans to prevent over-leveraging and ensure that valuations align with market trends [5] Recommendations for Market Stabilization - Long-term strategies should focus on economic growth and industrial upgrades, while short-term measures should include controlling new supply and promoting the de-stocking of existing properties [4] - Suggestions include establishing dynamic assessment mechanisms, setting up stabilization funds, guiding long-term capital into the market, and exploring asset securitization to stabilize market expectations [4][10] Market Dynamics - The market is currently in an adjustment cycle, with supply continuing to increase and leasing activities primarily driven by corporate relocations [7] - Certain emerging business districts are performing well due to high cost-performance ratios, while sectors like TMT, finance, and manufacturing show stable demand [7][8] Policy and Structural Changes - The transition from a high-debt, high-leverage model to a cash flow-oriented model in real estate is underway, with a focus on enhancing the attractiveness of commercial properties despite current challenges [8] - Recommendations for policy adjustments include reducing new commercial land supply, promoting the conversion of commercial properties to rental housing, and encouraging the upgrade of old projects [9][10] Investment Climate - The public REITs market is active at the primary issuance level, attracting many asset owners, although large transactions remain low, indicating a market still in the bottoming process [8] - The flexibility in land use conversion is seen as a potential effective channel for alleviating pressures in the office market, with examples of successful conversions to long-term rental apartments [11]

场。 上海财经大学供图 中新网上海9月18日电 (记者 许婧)写字楼不仅是城市经济的重要载体，也是金融稳定与产业发展的交汇 点。18日在上海召开的"潮涌东方金融论坛：写字楼市场运行与金融风险防范研讨会"上，与会专家学者 聚焦中国写字楼市场运行现状与潜在金融风险，共议应对策略与发展前景。 研讨会现 上海财经大学财税投资学院副教授邓旷旷表示，土地利用类型的灵活转换可能是办公楼市场纾困的有效 渠道。上海长租公寓项目有大量是从低效写字楼改建的，这些长租公寓不仅对传统住宅小区租金的负面 影响很小，还明显提升了社区消费活力。无论是从短期还是长期来看，允许土地用途在不同物业类型间 弹性转换，将有利于市场的平稳发展。 上海财经大学副校长、上财浦发金融创新研究院院长姚玲珍教授指出，市场的阵痛是转型的必经之路， 风险的暴露也是治理的契机。唯有政策、市场和产业多方协同，才能推动写字楼市场止跌回稳，实现高 质量发展。 上海财经大学财税投资学院助理教授张莉提到，互联网与发达交通网络正重塑上海写字楼市场，使区域 租金差缩小。新兴孵化空间需求旺盛，医美、轻医疗等成为楼宇转化方向，但改造仍面临成本与审批约 束。当前市场机遇与挑战并存，结构性 ...

Market Overview - The Suzhou office market is under significant pressure in the first half of 2025 due to the aftermath of a supply peak in 2024, with multiple projects delayed and only one new project, Nissin Center, launched in Q2 [3][4] - The overall net absorption in the first half of 2025 was 33,900 square meters, with a vacancy rate reaching 29.7%, the highest in five years [4][6] Rental Market Dynamics - Rental prices have decreased, with the average rent recorded at 69.30 yuan per square meter per month, the lowest in nearly three years [6] - Landlords are offering various incentives such as rent discounts and extended rent-free periods to retain existing tenants and attract new ones [6][11] Demand and Supply Trends - The demand side remains weak, with some companies downsizing or vacating spaces, leading to a contraction in overall transaction volume compared to the previous year [4][8] - The supply of new office space has slowed, with only 37,000 square meters of quality commercial space added in Q2 [4] Sector-Specific Insights - The electronics and technology sectors, along with professional services, have shown active transaction volumes, while emerging manufacturing companies have also seen a year-on-year increase in transactions [8] - Large transactions over 1,000 square meters have been limited, with professional services and finance being the main sources of demand [8] Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see the introduction of over 1.7 million square meters of high-quality office projects, intensifying market competition [11] - The focus for office operators will shift from price competition to enhancing the value of office spaces through integration of industry resources and creating a supportive ecosystem for tenants [11][12] Policy and Economic Development - Suzhou has introduced multiple industry policies targeting advanced fields such as AI and biomedicine, aiming to create an attractive industrial development ecosystem [12] - The city signed 417 key projects with a total investment exceeding 341.57 billion yuan, indicating strong industrial aggregation effects [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - A-shares have a high investment cost - performance ratio in the medium - to - long term. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and technology innovation policies and may bring higher returns due to their high growth. SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment. Entering July, overseas uncertainties increase, and tariff negotiations may become a short - term focus in the capital market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - For IF contracts, the previous two - day closing prices for IF current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter were 3997.20, 3979.20, 3972.00, and 3941.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4014.60, 4000.00, 3993.40, and 3965.60 respectively, with increases of 7.80, 10.20, 11.60, and 17.20. The trading volumes were 53455.00, 8979.00, 84781.00, and 16296.00 respectively, and the open interests were 62423.00, 13332.00, 158393.00, and 48480.00 respectively, with changes of 2133.00, 4184.00, 14069.00, and 4222.00 [1] - Similar data are provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts. For example, for IC contracts, the previous two - day closing prices for current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter were 5958.80, 5904.40, 5854.20, and 5731.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6023.00, 5973.40, 5920.40, and 5794.00 respectively, with increases of 55.00, 62.20, 60.60, and 57.80 [1] - The spread between IF next month and IF current month was - 14.60 (previous value - 18.00), and similar spread data are provided for IH, IC, and IM [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - For the CSI 300 index, the previous value of the index points was 4014.81, the trading volume was 262.05 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 4437.81 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.12. Similar data are provided for SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [1] - Different industries in the CSI 300 index had different growth rates. For example, the energy industry had a growth rate of - 1.32%, and the raw materials industry had a growth rate of 0.87% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between IF current month and CSI 300 was - 0.21 (previous two - day value - 12.82), and similar basis data are provided for other contracts and corresponding spot indices [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - For domestic main indexes, the Shanghai Composite Index had a previous value of 3510.18, with a growth rate of 0.01%. The Shenzhen Component Index had a previous value of 10696.10, with a growth rate of 0.61% [1] - For overseas indexes, the Hang Seng Index had a previous value of 24139.57, with a growth rate of 0.46%. The Nikkei 225 had a previous value of 39569.68, with a growth rate of - 0.19% [1] 5. Macro Information - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Self - Regulatory Guidelines for Science and Technology Innovation Board Listed Companies No. 5 - Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer", with no additional listing thresholds for unprofitable enterprises and no new investment thresholds for individual investors [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Guidelines for the Application of Issuance and Listing Review Rules No. 7 - Pre - review", allowing eligible enterprises to apply for pre - review of their application documents before formally applying for IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board [2] 6. Industry Information - The rent of Beijing's representative financial street in the office market fell below 400 yuan/square meter/month in the second quarter, and new industries are expected to boost demand [2] - The price of polysilicon rose by more than 16% last week, and the market expects accelerated supply - side reform in resource industries [2] - Multiple regions issued risk warnings against stable - coin concepts [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

Group 1: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market has not shown significant improvement in the first half of the year, but key factors are beginning to turn around [1] - A rebound in population and a significant drop in interest rates, including HIBOR, are expected to restore market confidence, with property prices projected to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and by 5% in both 2026 and 2027 [1] - The decline in HIBOR directly reduces mortgage rates, alleviating payment pressure and providing a good opportunity for first-time buyers and motivating upgrade purchases in the secondary market [1] Group 2: Residential Rental Market - The trend of divergence in residential prices and rental markets has continued into 2023, driven by population inflow and government talent introduction plans, which will increase housing demand and push short-term rental growth [1] - Rental prices are expected to rise by approximately 2% to 3% this year, with areas close to major business districts and key universities projected to see rental increases of at least 5% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Retail Market - Despite changes in tourist consumption habits and average spending levels, an increase in tourist numbers and a slowdown in consumption trends from mainland China are expected to benefit the dining and grocery sectors [2] - High-end shopping centers and core shopping areas are anticipated to remain stable through 2025, although non-tourist and core retail areas may face more significant pressure due to e-commerce challenges [2] Group 4: Office Market - The office market remains cautious, with vacancy rates slightly decreasing from a high of 13.7% in July 2024 to 13.5% in March 2025, but still at elevated levels [2] - Major projects set to complete between 2025 and 2026 will limit the rebound potential of the office market, with Grade A office rents expected to decline by 3% to 5% year-on-year until economic conditions improve [2]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional belief that purchasing office buildings is a symbol of corporate maturity and strength is being challenged due to economic slowdown, cash flow pressures, and the rise of flexible office space trends [1][2]. Group 1: Changing Decision-Making Logic - The decision to purchase or lease office space is evolving from a purely financial consideration to a strategic one, focusing on organizational efficiency and resource optimization [3][4]. - Companies are increasingly interested in the strategic value of office space rather than just ownership, emphasizing three key value judgments: enhancing organizational efficiency, securing prime locations, and providing strategic redundancy for future growth [1][2]. Group 2: Key Variables Influencing Purchase Decisions - Five key variables influence whether a company should purchase office buildings: organizational stability, cash flow status, office space usage frequency, location dependency, and asset strategy orientation [6]. - Organizational stability and asset strategy orientation are identified as the strongest indicators of a company's willingness to purchase [6]. Group 3: Market Cycles and Timing - The cost-effectiveness of leasing versus purchasing office space varies with market cycles, with purchasing becoming advantageous during downturns when prices are low and vacancy rates are high [8][9]. - The period from 2023 to 2025 is identified as a potential window for high-net-worth enterprises and state-owned enterprises to purchase office buildings due to favorable market conditions [9][10]. Group 4: Lifecycle Considerations for Companies - Companies at different stages of their lifecycle have distinct motivations and strategies for purchasing office buildings, ranging from flexibility in the startup phase to asset stability in the mature phase [12][16]. - In the growth phase, companies may seek to lock in long-term costs and enhance brand recognition through ownership, while mature companies focus on operational efficiency and capital gains [19][20]. Group 5: Different Types of Companies and Their Preferences - High-growth private enterprises prefer flexible leasing arrangements but may consider purchasing when cash flow stabilizes [22]. - State-owned enterprises prioritize asset stability and strategic holdings, often opting for full ownership of properties [24]. - Financial and insurance firms view office buildings as part of their fixed-income asset allocation, focusing on stable cash flows and low volatility [27]. Group 6: Identifying Purchase Opportunities - Companies should assess market cycles, location supply-demand dynamics, price expectations, and policy incentives to identify optimal purchase opportunities [29][30]. - The analysis indicates that the best purchase windows occur when market prices are reasonable, rental rates stabilize, and supportive policies are in place [31][32]. Group 7: Decision-Making Framework for Purchases - A decision-making framework is proposed to evaluate the appropriateness of purchasing office buildings, considering factors such as company development stage, financial capacity, market conditions, property value, and non-financial benefits [37]. - The framework aims to help companies systematically assess whether to enter the purchasing phase based on a scoring model [38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that family offices are increasingly favoring real estate investments due to its growth potential and wealth preservation capabilities [1][2] - Real estate constitutes a significant portion of family office investment portfolios, ranking just behind stocks and cash, with office buildings (20%), luxury residences (17%), industrial properties (14%), and hotels (12%) being the most allocated sectors [2][3] - Approximately 70% of real estate investments are domestic, with New Zealand (93%), Australia (90%), and the United States (86%) showing the highest domestic investment focus [2] Group 2 - Family offices view real estate as part of a broader investment strategy, balancing it with listed stocks, venture capital, or other private investments, and some see it as a strategic asset for core business operations [3] - Two-thirds of family offices manage private residential properties, primarily for family use and inheritance (44%), capital preservation (29%), and diversification (20%), with rental income being a lesser priority [5] - The most sought-after real estate sectors by family offices include living spaces (14%), industrial/logistics (13%), and luxury residences (12%) [7] Group 3 - Family offices express interest in expanding their real estate investments, particularly in living spaces, logistics, luxury residences, and hotels, but face challenges such as finding reliable partners (23%), tax regulations (20%), and asset competition (19%) [8] - In commercial real estate, opportunities are identified in gateway city office buildings, which are seen as volatility hedges, especially in light of increasing geopolitical risks [10][11] - Investors are also focusing on sectors with structural tailwinds, such as logistics and living spaces, while retail real estate in developed markets remains a point of interest [12][13] Group 4 - The report highlights a growing interest in ESG assets, with 90% of institutional investors setting social goals, and 73% focusing on workplace well-being [14][16] - The wine industry presents investment opportunities, particularly in vineyards, with prices in certain regions expected to decline significantly, while others remain stable [17][18] - The luxury goods market is experiencing mixed performance, with some sectors showing growth while others, like art and wine, are facing declines [22][24] Group 5 - The issue of inheritance is pressing, with 58% of family offices indicating that the next generation is involved in investment decisions, leading to changes in investment strategies [27][28] - Cultural and moral differences between generations affect investment strategies, with a notable shift towards sustainable investments among millennials compared to baby boomers [29]