周期起舞，涨价背后的逻辑与空间 20251204 摘要 反内卷政策旨在遏制恶性竞争，通过政府干预和龙头企业引领推动供给 收缩，钢铁行业淘汰地条钢后显著改善，水泥和化工行业通过限产自律 和自发减产实现健康发展。 建材和钢铁行业目前处于周期底部摸底阶段，水泥企业发货量下滑甚至 亏损，钢铁行业虽盈利较去年改善但仍微薄，铁矿石价格高企和焦煤受 益于反内卷政策导致成本端压力较大。 住房新提法"好房子"强调设计和材料，将鼓励消费建材企业开发优质 产品，如抗菌涂料、防火石膏板等，以满足存量住房改造市场对舒适居 住环境的需求。 有色金属板块受全球经济复苏预期、供应链紧张和新能源产业需求增长 等多重因素影响，具有投资吸引力，但需关注全球经济和政策变化带来 的不确定性。 有色金属板块上涨由宏观需求、供给侧脆弱性和降息预期驱动，欧洲和 美国财政扩张、国内制造业升级及储能需求增长带动金属需求，但新增 产能和矿业资本开支仍然较少。 Q&A 反内卷政策对周期板块的影响如何？哪些行业的效果见效快且持续性好？ 反内卷政策虽然是一个新提法，但其实与 2016-2017 年的供给侧改革有相似 之处。供给侧改革通过打击不合规产能和环保约束，提升了 ...

Core Insights - The antibacterial paint market in China is experiencing rapid growth due to increasing health awareness and demand for hygiene products, with the market size projected to reach approximately 10.98 billion yuan in 2024 and 15.368 billion yuan by 2027 [1][16] - The industry is benefiting from various national policies such as new infrastructure projects, urbanization, and rural revitalization, which are expected to drive demand for coatings [1][16] - Antibacterial coatings not only improve indoor air quality and reduce infection risks but also enhance the durability of painted surfaces, making them popular in medical institutions, homes, and public spaces [1][16] Antibacterial Coatings Industry Overview - Antibacterial coatings are designed to prevent the growth of bacteria, fungi, and algae, offering superior disinfection effects compared to regular paints [3][5] - The market is segmented into natural, organic, and inorganic antibacterial coatings, each with distinct properties and applications [3] Industry Development History - The antibacterial industry in China began in the 1980s and gained momentum in the late 1990s, with significant contributions from companies like Nippon Paint [8] - The establishment of standards for antibacterial coatings by the China Coatings Industry Association in 2020 has further propelled the industry's growth [8] Industry Chain - The upstream of the antibacterial coatings industry includes raw materials such as antibacterial agents, film-forming agents, and solvents, while the downstream applications span construction, food processing, healthcare, and more [10][12] Market Trends - The antibacterial agent market is projected to reach approximately 13.01 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.71%, driven by expanding application scenarios and technological innovations [12] - The construction industry is a key application area for antibacterial coatings, with the total output value of the construction industry in China expected to grow from 21.39 trillion yuan in 2017 to 32.65 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.23% [13] Competitive Landscape - Leading international companies in the antibacterial coatings market include AkzoNobel, PPG Industries, Sherwin-Williams, and BASF, while domestic leaders include companies like Three Trees, Nippon Paint China, and Carpoly [18][20] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on technological innovation and the development of high-end applications in healthcare and home appliances [18] Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to focus on the development of composite antibacterial coatings that optimize the synergistic effects of different antibacterial agents [25] - The application of inorganic nano antibacterial materials is anticipated to deepen, with a focus on improving dispersion and stability in coatings [26][27] - Research into the mechanisms of antibacterial agents will support the development of targeted products, alongside the establishment of comprehensive testing methods and industry standards [28]