Core Insights - The article discusses the anticipated growth of the foldable smartphone market, driven by Apple's expected entry in the second half of 2026, which is projected to increase the penetration rate of foldable phones from 1.6% in 2025 to over 3% by 2027 [2]. Group 1: Foldable Smartphone Market - The foldable smartphone hinge market is expected to reach a value of $1.2 billion by 2025, with the hinge cost accounting for approximately 5% to 8% of the bill of materials (BOM) for each device [3]. - Samsung has adopted a droplet hinge design in its Galaxy Z Fold 5 and Flip series starting in 2023, enhancing foldability and durability while reducing crease visibility, which has become a mainstream design in the industry [3]. - The industry is moving towards modular designs and standardization to reduce costs and improve yield rates, which will shift hinges from traditional material processing to system module supply [3][4]. Group 2: Apple’s Potential Impact - Apple is considering the use of liquid metal for structural components in its foldable devices, aiming to leverage the material's properties for lightweight and high toughness [5]. - The entry of Apple into the foldable smartphone market is expected to signal a maturation of the segment, with competition shifting towards manufacturing efficiency, cost control, and supply chain integration [5]. - Suppliers that can manage technology, capacity, and price flexibility will be key beneficiaries in the upcoming growth cycle as the market evolves [5].

目前相关供应商已加大投入，比如新日兴和Amphenol(安费诺)长期提供品牌高精度转轴与金属零组件， 适应水滴型铰链普及，积极导入标准化生产流程；东睦新材料集团、精研科技（300709）也凭借粉末冶 金与微型机构精密加工技术，逐步在折叠手机转轴、滑轨等关键零组件市场站稳脚跟，特别在中阶产品 线具备明显价格与量产优势。 Apple可能导入新材料，供应链有望升级整合 随着Apple进军折叠设备的时间日益临近，市场高度关注其可能采用的新材料与供应商。据了解，Apple 已纳入液态金属(liquid metal)为结构件材料的考量，希望利用材料特性确保产品兼具轻量与高韧性。目 前，宜安科技（300328）等中国厂商已具备液态金属成型能力，若Apple进一步导入3D打印、复合材质 与特殊工艺，势必将带动高阶结构件供应链全面升级。 Apple历来多非产业创新前段推手，而是倾向采取"早期多数族群(Early Majority)"策略入局，其等待折叠 手机市场趋于稳定，计划以差异化方式快速抢下市占，避免早期投入的风险与高研发成本。Apple入市 意味折叠手机迈向成熟应用，核心竞争将转向制造效率、成本控制，以及供应链整合。面对 ...

光学业务：引领WLG 玻塑混合镜头，加速布局XR 领域。近期消费电子需求提振，智能手机市场需求 逐步复苏，同时高端化趋势显著。早期智能手机性能升级主要通过增加摄像头个数，而目前单机摄像头 数量增长趋缓，光学升级核心关注性能的差异化升级。玻塑混合镜头提供优异光学性能的同时实现减 薄，有望成为手机镜头新趋势。瑞声科技独家掌握WLG 技术，持续引领WLG 玻塑混合镜头赛道，产 品已应用于多款智能手机。智能手机以外，在VR 领域，瑞声成功量产苹果Vision Pro 同款3P Pancake 光机模组；AR 方面，衍射光波导为AR 光学趋势，瑞声单层彩色光波导镜片可提供轻薄舒适佩戴体 验。 电磁传动及精密结构件：收购东阳精密实现结构件协同成长，端侧AI 引领VC散热需求。触觉反馈提高 人机交互体验，为智能终端升级重要方向。相比于转子马达，线性马达效果真实且功耗低，其中X 轴线 性马达由于振动行程更长，触觉反馈更优，正在逐步从旗舰机型向中低端机型渗透。瑞声在X 轴线性马 达领域拥有深厚储备，同时正在从智能手机向其他应用领域积极拓展。精密结构件业务方面，瑞声是折 叠手机铰链的领先供应商，有望随折叠屏手机渗透率提升带动业绩 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 瑞声科技（02018.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 多元布局消费电子业务，光学及 XR 有望驱 动新增长 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 27328 | 30,762 | 33,702 | | 36,586 | | 同比增速(%) | 33.4% | 12.6% | 9.6% | | 8.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,797 | 2,362 | 2,770 | | 3,162 | | 同比增速(%) | 142.7% | 31.4% | 17.2% | | 14.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.50 | 1.97 | 2.31 | | 2.64 | | 市盈率(倍) | 25.9 | 19.7 | 16.8 | | 14.7 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | | 1.5 | | 资料来源：公司公告， | 华创证券预测 | 注：股价为 ...