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郭明錤:iPhone Fold铰链成本低于预期 立讯精密有望成供应商
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 06:05
Group 1 - The first-generation iPhone Fold's hinge unit price is expected to drop to approximately $70–80 after mass production, significantly lower than the market expectation of $100–120 or higher, which may help Apple reduce costs and increase profits, potentially reflecting in pricing to expand market share [1] - Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) may join as a new hinge supplier as early as 2027, indicating two possible trends: further downward potential for hinge unit prices and that hinges will become a new battleground for system assembly factories [1] - The joint venture between Hon Hai and New Nikko is responsible for the folding iPhone hinge assembly and production, with Hon Hai holding a slightly higher stake and leading future directions, achieving a higher order ratio (approximately 65%) compared to Amphenol (approximately 35%) [1] Group 2 - Amphenol's low order ratio is attributed to its lack of proactive response to Apple's expansion requirements, possibly considering absolute returns (profit growth in the hinge business) versus relative returns (higher returns from AI investments) [2] - The folding iPhone hinge remains an important trend for New Nikko, but its contribution needs to be reassessed, as market consensus may be overly optimistic by not considering factors such as significantly lower hinge unit prices, Hon Hai's higher profit share from the joint venture, and New Nikko's lack of significant benefits from upstream key component orders [2]
郭明錤:iPhone Fold铰链成本低于预期 立讯精密(002475.SZ)有望成供应商
智通财经网· 2025-10-13 06:01
Core Insights - The first-generation iPhone Fold's hinge price is expected to drop to approximately $70–80, significantly lower than the market expectation of $100–120, which could help Apple reduce costs and enhance profits, potentially reflected in pricing strategies to increase market share [1] - Luxshare Precision is anticipated to join as a new hinge supplier after 2027, indicating potential trends of further price reductions and competition in the hinge assembly sector [1] - The joint venture between Hon Hai and New Nikko is responsible for the folding iPhone hinge assembly and production, with Hon Hai holding a slight majority and leading the direction, capturing a higher order share of about 65% compared to Amphenol's 35% [1] Price Dynamics - The decline in hinge prices is attributed to optimized assembly design and Hon Hai's involvement rather than a significant drop in upstream component costs [1] - Hon Hai's expansion and mass production capabilities have enabled the joint venture to secure a larger order volume [1] Competitive Landscape - Amphenol's lower order share is partly due to its lack of proactive response to Apple's expansion demands, possibly influenced by considerations of absolute and relative returns on investment [2] - The folding iPhone hinge remains a significant trend for New Nikko, but there is a need to reassess its contributions as market consensus may be overly optimistic regarding hinge pricing and profit distribution within the joint venture [2]
闻泰科技半导体资产被荷兰政府冻结;Windows 10系统明日起停服;特努斯成为苹果下一任CEO热门人选
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 05:32
Group 1 - Wintech's semiconductor assets have been frozen by the Dutch government, requiring adjustments to assets and intellectual property for one year [2][4] - The Dutch court has implemented emergency measures, including suspending the CEO position of Zhang Xuezheng at Nexperia, a subsidiary of Wintech [4] - Wintech's Nexperia is projected to generate approximately 14.7 billion RMB in revenue for 2024 [4] Group 2 - Haier Group has signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement with Alibaba to enhance AI collaboration, aiming to accelerate AI innovation in the industry [5] Group 3 - Microsoft will stop providing security updates and technical support for Windows 10 starting October 14, which may increase vulnerability to cyberattacks for users [6] - Users are encouraged to upgrade to Windows 11 as the functionality of some applications may diminish over time [6] Group 4 - John Ternus, Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering at Apple, is considered a leading candidate to succeed CEO Tim Cook, who will turn 65 on November 1 [7] - Ternus was entrusted with the introduction of the iPhone Air at Apple's annual developer conference in September [7] Group 5 - Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reports that the price of the foldable iPhone hinge is expected to drop to approximately $70-80, significantly lower than the previously anticipated $100-120 [9] - The reduction in price is attributed to assembly design optimization and the involvement of Foxconn, which, along with New Japan Radio, holds a combined market share of about 65% for the foldable iPhone hinges [9] Group 6 - xAI is developing a "world model" for use in video games and robotics, having recruited researchers from Nvidia to assist in this project [10][13] - The "world model" aims to internally reconstruct and predict environmental changes, enhancing AI's ability to simulate the evolution of the world [13] Group 7 - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has sold 225,000 shares of the company, cashing out over $42.8 million in early October, bringing his total sales for the month to over $113 million [14] Group 8 - Warner Bros Discovery has rejected an initial acquisition proposal from Paramount Skydance, citing the offer of approximately $20 per share as too low [15] - Warner Bros' stock closed at $17.10 per share, giving it a market capitalization of $42.3 billion [15] Group 9 - MKS Instruments is considering the sale of its $1 billion specialty chemicals division to focus on supplying chip manufacturers [16] - The company provides critical advanced manufacturing equipment in the semiconductor supply chain, with clients including TSMC and Applied Materials [16] Group 10 - The "Top Ten Global Engineering Achievements of 2025" have been published, including notable projects such as the Perseverance Mars Rover and the Euclid Space Telescope [17]