2025 年 8 月 27 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 海底捞 (6862 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$20.40) 目标价: HK$20.40 当前股价: HK$14.47 股价上行/下行空间 +41% 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) 19.96/11.60 市值 (US$mn) 10,326 当前发行数量(百万股) 5,574 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) 42 流通盘占比 (%) 100 主要股东 (%) NP United Holding Ltd 32 按 2025 年 8 月 26 日收市数据 资料来源: FactSet | | 现值 | 原值 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 评级 | 买入 | 买入 | N/A | | 目标价 (HK$) | 20.40 | 20.40 | 0% | | 2025E EPS (RMB) | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0% | | 2026E EPS (RMB) | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0% | | 2027E EPS (RMB) | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0% | 股价表现 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the restaurant industry Core Insights - The restaurant industry in China is facing unprecedented challenges due to economic adjustments and changes in consumer behavior, leading to a significant compression of profit margins for restaurant businesses [6][10] - The report highlights a dual trend of short-term consumption downgrade and long-term consumption upgrade, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards personalized and diverse dining experiences [40][43] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with chain brands expanding rapidly while niche restaurants gain popularity among specific consumer groups, prompting businesses to enhance their core competencies [6][10] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Background - Economic adjustments are ongoing, with incremental policy effects gradually becoming apparent [7] - In 2024, GDP growth is projected to slow to 5.0%, with retail sales growth significantly declining to 3.5% [10] - Restaurant revenue growth is expected to drop sharply from 20.4% in 2023 to 5.3% in 2024, reflecting a broader economic slowdown [10] Current State of the Restaurant Industry - The industry is experiencing a misalignment of supply and demand, leading to a "dark moment" for restaurants [20] - High-cost pressures from labor and rent are forcing businesses to focus on cost reduction and efficiency [32][34] - The average price of dining has decreased, with the overall dining price dropping from 43.2 yuan in 2022 to 39.8 yuan in 2024, a decline of 6.6% [29] Consumer Dynamics - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior from quality-focused to practical spending, with a significant impact on mid-income groups [40][43] - The average number of family members is decreasing, leading to a rise in dining out, which is expected to stabilize demand for essential and self-indulgent dining experiences [45] - Consumers are increasingly favoring unique dining experiences over traditional social dining, with a growing preference for small, niche restaurants [51][56] Trends in Restaurant Operations - Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are becoming core operational goals amid economic pressures [60] - The report outlines a "5S principle" for cost reduction, emphasizing smaller store models and flexible staffing to lower operational costs [62][66] - Digital tools and flexible staffing models are being adopted to improve efficiency and reduce labor costs by 15% to 25% [70] Supply Chain Trends - The trend towards downstream chain and scale operations is driving increased specialization in upstream supply chains [92] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating supply chains to ensure quality and stability in food supply, particularly as the market evolves [92]