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25H1,纯债基金“大落大起”
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-08 02:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the scale of pure - bond funds increased by nearly 100 billion yuan. Credit medium - and long - term bond funds showed outstanding performance in a volatile market, but the overall performance of pure - bond funds was inferior to the same period in previous years. Meanwhile, the expansion of pure - bond funds was hindered, and "Fixed Income +" funds became popular in the market [1]. - The scale of index funds increased significantly beyond the seasonal trend. Credit - based index bond funds witnessed explosive growth, while interest - rate based ones had a recovery. For medium - and long - term bond funds, the equilibrium and interest - rate styles grew in scale, while the credit style declined. Short - term and medium - short - term bond funds ended three consecutive quarters of scale reduction [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1, the scale of pure - bond funds increased by nearly 100 billion yuan 3.1.1 Credit medium - and long - term bond funds showed outstanding performance in a volatile market - In Q1 2025, affected by multiple negative factors, the bond market was under pressure, and the yield center of pure - bond funds dropped significantly. In Q2, due to factors such as increased risk - aversion sentiment and abundant liquidity, the bond market strengthened, and the single - quarter yield center of pure - bond funds turned positive [11]. - The median return of pure - bond funds in H1 2025 was 0.76%, recovering the losses in Q1 but underperforming the same period in 2024 and 2023. Credit - style products were more popular, with the return center of medium - and long - term credit bond funds reaching 1.00%, leading other styles [1][14]. 3.1.2 The expansion of pure - bond funds was hindered, and "Fixed Income +" became popular in the market - The total scale of pure - bond funds increased from 9.50 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 to 9.59 trillion yuan in mid - 2025, with an increase of only 93.8 billion yuan. In contrast, the total scale of "Fixed Income +" funds increased by 256.9 billion yuan to 1.48 trillion yuan. The "market share" of pure - bond funds decreased by nearly 2 percentage points [18]. 3.1.3 Most of the top - tier fund managers saw an increase in scale - In H1 2025, 67 fund managers had positive scale growth, with 16 managers having a scale increase of over 10 billion yuan and 28 managers over 5 billion yuan. Among the 21 top - tier managers, 14 had a net scale increase, mainly in Q2 [23]. - Index - type bond funds quickly replaced medium - and long - term bond funds as the focus of fund managers. Among the 15 fund managers with rapid scale growth in Q2, index - type bond funds contributed 250.4 billion yuan, accounting for over 50% [2][28]. 3.2 By type, the scale growth of index funds was significantly beyond the seasonal trend 3.2.1 Index bond funds: credit - based ones had explosive growth, and interest - rate based ones had a recovery - In Q1 2025, due to the seasonal effect, the scale of index - type bond funds decreased by 92.6 billion yuan. In Q2, the scale increased by 308.3 billion yuan, reaching the highest level since 2019 [33]. - Credit - bond index funds grew rapidly, with a net increase of about 220 billion yuan in Q2, and their proportion in index - type bond funds rose from 12% at the end of Q1 to 24%. Policy - financial bond index funds had a recovery, but their proportion decreased from 71% to 60% [35]. 3.2.2 Medium - and long - term bond funds: the equilibrium and interest - rate styles grew in scale, while the credit style declined - The medium - and long - term bond fund market was first depressed and then rebounded in H1 2025. The scale decreased by 394.6 billion yuan in Q1 and rebounded by 275.1 billion yuan in Q2 but did not fully recover the losses in Q1 [48]. - There was a significant style rotation in H1 2025. In Q1, funds flowed into credit - style products, while in Q2, the equilibrium and interest - rate styles grew, and the credit style shrank. The main reason was the active adjustment of the holding structure of existing funds [48][49]. 3.2.3 Short - term and medium - short - term bond funds: ended three consecutive quarters of scale reduction - In Q2 2025, the scale of short - term and medium - short - term bond funds rebounded, ending the downward trend since Q3 2024. The scale of short - term bond funds increased by 17.1% to 545.5 billion yuan, and that of medium - short - term bond funds increased by 18.5% to 600.5 billion yuan [59]. 3.3 Appendix: Fund classification method - For the selection of the fund list each quarter, start from the initial funds of bond - type funds in the Wind first - level classification and partial - debt hybrid funds in the second - level classification. Eliminate funds that do not meet the requirements to ensure that they are pure - bond funds [67]. - Classify short - term and medium - short - term bond funds based on the full - name matching of fund products, investment scope, performance comparison benchmark, and weighted duration of heavy - position bonds. Classify medium - and long - term bond funds according to the bond - holding situation in the quarterly report and assign style labels [68].
债券基金的指数化投资浪潮:产品战略、管理人策略以及应用场景分析
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The index - based investment in bond funds has entered a new stage of normal development since 2018, with the number and scale of new products growing steadily. The current index - based bond funds total 341, with a combined scale of 1.42 trillion yuan, and the scale of index products in bond funds accounts for 16%. [4][10] - The market concentration of index - based bond fund managers is relatively high. Although the market share of managers has declined since 2018, the absolute values remain high. [50] - Most managers' index - based bond funds have returns lagging behind the tracked indexes or cannot continuously generate excess returns. Only a few companies, such as GF Fund, can continuously create excess returns in the past three and five years. [4] - The holders of index - based bond funds are mainly institutions, with a proportion of over 80%. Since the establishment of inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) index - based bond funds, individual investors have also started to invest, mainly in cash - management products and focusing on inter - bank CDs. [36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Index Fund's Overall Development Situation 3.1.1 Development Stage - From 2011 - 2017, China's index - based bond funds were in the exploration stage. Since April 2018, they have entered a new stage of normal development, with the number of new products exceeding 10 each year. [4][10] - Since 2021, the indexation process of the bond fund market has accelerated, and the scale proportion of index - based bond funds has rapidly climbed from 8% to 16%. [13] 3.1.2 Coverage Scope - Policy - bank bond indexes are the mainstream. In the secondary classification of indexes, policy - bank bond indexes have the largest number of indexes, tracked products, and scale, accounting for 61.28%. [16][18] - The index - based bond funds have a wide duration coverage, ranging from 0.3 to 20 years. The 1 - 3 - year maturity segment has the most intense competition. [22] 3.1.3 Bond Index Layout - Off - exchange index - based bond funds have a relatively rich product layout, covering most types except convertible bond indexes. Mainstream off - exchange bond indexes are mostly fixed - maturity policy - bank bond index funds. [25] - Bond ETFs have fewer products but cover more types of indexes, including convertible bonds, credit bonds, and interest - rate bonds, with many unique indexes. [26] - Ten public funds have reported 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs, which are divided into cross - market and single - market types, and the underlying bonds are all AAA - rated science and technology innovation corporate bonds. [33] 3.1.4 Holder Structure - Index - based bond funds are mainly held by institutions, with a proportion of over 80%. Individual investors mainly invest in inter - bank CD index funds. [36] - Institutions prefer tool - type index - based bond funds, off - exchange index bonds for excess returns, and some bond ETFs with special functions. [40] - Some bond ETFs, such as 30 - year treasury bond ETFs and Haifutong CSI Short - Term Financing Bond ETF, have a relatively high proportion of individual investors. [46] 3.1.5 Market Share of Managers - The market concentration of index - based bond fund managers is high. The market shares of the top three, top ten, and top twenty managers are 20.58%, 51.18%, and 71.05% respectively. [50] - There are 115 fund companies with index - based bond funds, and only 16 of them have bond ETFs. [50] 3.2 Analysis of Representative Fund Companies 3.2.1 Overall Situation - The top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of index - based bond funds are Bosera Fund, Haifutong Fund, and GF Fund. [58] - Bosera Fund and GF Fund have stable rankings in the bond index fund business scale, while Haifutong Fund, Fullgoal Fund, and E Fund have rapidly rising rankings. [61] 3.2.2 Product Line Layout - Bosera Fund has a relatively complete product line layout, with both on - exchange and off - exchange businesses, covering convertible bonds, interest - rate bonds, and credit bonds. [74] - GF Fund started early in the layout of bond index funds, with a complete product line of interest - rate bond indexes and both on - exchange and off - exchange credit bond index funds. [78] - Fullgoal Fund's scale has grown rapidly in recent years, mainly from its Fullgoal ChinaBond 7 - 10 Year Policy - Financial Bond ETF. Its product line is relatively comprehensive. [82] - E Fund has a complete product line layout, with rapid development in the credit bond index fund business. [64] - Haifutong Fund focuses on ETF business, with most indexes being unique, such as urban investment bonds, local government bonds, and short - term financing bonds. [64] 3.2.3 Fund Manager Configuration - Index - based bond funds are mostly managed by the fixed - income department. GF Fund has the largest number of fund managers. [68] 3.3 Application Scenarios of Bond Index Funds No relevant content provided.