证券研究报告 | 2025年09月03日 保隆科技（603197.SH） 优于大市 产品结构及行业压力影响短期盈利，空悬收入同比增长 50% 上半年收入同比增长 24%，空悬收入同比增长 50%，整体净利润短期承压。 保隆科技 2025 年上半年实现营业收入 39.05 亿元，同比增长 24%；实现归母 净利润 1.35 亿元，同比下降 9.15%，主要受北美关税、主机厂价格战、产品 结构等因素影响。单季度看，25Q2 公司实现营收 20.45 亿元，同比增长 20%， 环比增长 7%；实现归母净利润 0.4 亿元，同比下降 51%，环比下降 58%。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,897 | 7,025 | 8,948 | 10,511 | 12,910 | | (+/-%) | 23.4% | 19.1% | 27.4% | 17.5% | 22.8% | | 净利润(百万元) | 379 | 303 | 392 | 473 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Baolong Technology (603197.SH) [4][6]. Core Views - Baolong Technology's net profit in Q1 increased by 40% year-on-year, with expectations for accelerated performance release in 2025. The company achieved a revenue of 7.025 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.12%, and a net profit of 303 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.14%, primarily due to 124 million yuan in stock incentive expenses [1][10]. - The company is a global leader in TPMS (Tire Pressure Monitoring System) and has a robust order book for new products, despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to product structure changes and increased competition [4][28]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Baolong Technology's overall gross margin is projected to be 25.05%, a decrease of 2.35 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by the ramp-up of lower-margin ADAS products. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for 2024 are expected to be 3.29%, 5.81%, and 8.11%, respectively [2][13]. - The company reported a revenue of 19.99 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.69%, and a net profit of 54 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.71% [10][11]. Product and Market Positioning - Baolong Technology has a comprehensive product layout in air suspension, having secured a project with a well-known European OEM for a new platform, marking a significant breakthrough for domestic air spring suppliers [3][28]. - The company has developed a diverse range of sensors, covering six categories and over 40 products, with an average vehicle value of approximately 1,000 yuan per sensor [36][38]. - The air suspension market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that by 2026, the annual delivery scale of passenger cars equipped with air suspension systems in China could reach 3 million units, corresponding to a market size of approximately 24 billion yuan [30][32]. Profit Forecasts and Financial Metrics - The profit forecasts for Baolong Technology have been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 479 million yuan, 570 million yuan, and 689 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 58.97 billion yuan in 2023 to 89.57 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 27.5% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a net profit growth of 40% year-on-year in Q1, with expectations for accelerated performance in 2025 [2][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.12%, and a net profit of 303 million yuan, a decrease of 20.14%, primarily due to 124 million yuan in stock incentive expenses. Adjusted operating net profit was 427 million yuan, up 13% [3][9] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.47%. The net profit was 54 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.71% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 46.20% [3][9] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.46%, with a net profit of 95 million yuan, up 39.99% year-on-year [3][9] Product Structure and Margins - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 25.05%, a decrease of 2.35 percentage points, influenced by the lower profitability of ADAS products. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 3.29%, 5.81%, and 8.11%, respectively [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratios were 2.89% for sales, 5.93% for management, and 6.98% for R&D, indicating a reduction in stock incentive expenses and potential for accelerated net profit recovery [4][14] Market Position and Product Development - The company remains a leader in the TPMS market, selling 66.73 million transmitters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22% [6][32] - The company has established a comprehensive product layout in air suspension, achieving a shipment of 1.8093 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%. It also secured a project with a well-known European OEM, marking a significant breakthrough for domestic suppliers [7][20][23] - The company has developed a range of 40 types of sensors across six categories, enhancing its capabilities in intelligent driving technologies [8][30] Subsidiary Performance - The profitability of key subsidiaries has improved significantly, with Ningguo Baolong achieving a net profit growth of 48% in 2024, and Baofu Overseas reporting a net profit increase of over 1300% [18][19] Order Backlog and Production Capacity - The company has over 14 billion yuan in orders for air suspension systems, with production capacity gradually being released from two expansions that added 4.28 million units [20][27] - The air suspension market is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3 million units delivered by 2026, indicating substantial revenue potential [20][27] Strategic Partnerships and Market Trends - The company has established long-term supply relationships with major automotive manufacturers, including Tesla and various domestic brands, enhancing its market presence [20][23] - The air suspension system's penetration rate is expected to increase, with the market projected to reach approximately 24 billion yuan by 2026 [20][27]