智通财经APP获悉，周四，The Trade Desk(TTD.US)开盘大跌超13%，创近年新低，现报21.79美元。消 息面上，The Trade Desk公布的第四季度利润高于华尔街预期，但预测第一季度营收将低于预期，这给 短期广告需求释放出喜忧参半的信号。该数字广告平台公布的调整后每股收益为 0.59 美元，高于分析 师预期的 0.34 美元。营收增至 8.47 亿美元，高于市场普遍预期的 8.4122 亿美元。 该公司预计 2026 年第一季度营收为 6.78 亿美元，低于此前预期的 6.884 亿美元。The Trade Desk表示， 尽管宏观经济存在不确定性，但公司仍将保持盈利能力和现金流，预计到 2025 年将创造 29 亿美元的收 入。 ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.37%, S&P 500 futures down 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.31% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.01%, France's CAC40 down 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.43% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is down 0.78% at $62.35 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 0.55% at $67.15 per barrel, amid OPEC+ discussions on potential production increases starting in April [3] Economic Data and Predictions - The US January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-on-year increase slowing to 2.5%, down from 2.7% in December, marking the lowest level since May 2025 [5] - Both overall CPI and core CPI are anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month [5] Company News - Application Materials (AMAT.US) reported Q1 revenue of $7.01 billion, slightly down 2% year-on-year but above market expectations of $6.86 billion, with a Non-GAAP EPS of $2.38, exceeding the forecast of $2.21 [10][11] - Roku (ROKU.US) exceeded Q4 revenue expectations with a 16.1% year-on-year increase to $1.395 billion, and a GAAP EPS of $0.53, surpassing analyst consensus by 88.8% [11] - Airbnb (ABNB.US) reported Q4 revenue of $2.78 billion, up 12% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations, and provided an optimistic revenue outlook for 2026 [12] - Vale (VALE.US) reported Q4 revenue of $11.06 billion, up 9% year-on-year, but faced a significant net loss of $3.844 billion due to a $3.5 billion impairment on nickel assets [13] - NatWest (NWG.US) reported a 30% increase in pre-tax profit to £1.94 billion ($2.6 billion), exceeding analyst expectations, and plans to leverage AI for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14]

Core Viewpoint - Software stocks have experienced significant selloffs due to investor concerns about AI disrupting traditional software economics, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) falling over 20% recently. However, expectations may have shifted too quickly, and while AI will reshape the software landscape, it is unlikely to make entire categories obsolete [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently pricing in a level of disruption that does not align with the durability of the strongest software platforms, creating compelling investment opportunities among premium software names [2]. - For much of the past decade, software companies enjoyed substantial valuation premiums due to their asset-light models, high margins, and recurring revenue, but many of these premiums became excessive, leading to caution in the sector [3]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Several strong software franchises, including AppLovin, Palantir Technologies, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Robinhood Markets, are trading near cyclical lows despite maintaining competitive positions, indicating attractive risk-reward profiles [4]. - AppLovin shares surged after the withdrawal of money laundering allegations, recovering from a 50% drop from record highs, and the company is expected to see sales growth of 18.2% this year and 38.3% next year, with earnings projected to increase by 106% [6][8]. - Salesforce, trading at approximately 14.7x forward earnings, is experiencing a historical discount despite expected revenue growth of 9.5% this year and 10.9% next year, alongside earnings growth of 15.3% this year [12][13]. - Palantir Technologies has seen its shares correct nearly 40% recently, yet it is projected to achieve revenue growth of 61.4% this year and 40.8% next year, with earnings expected to surge by 78.7% [15][17]. - ServiceNow is trading at an all-time low multiple of approximately 24.5x forward earnings, with revenue expected to grow 20.1% this year and 18.2% next year, making it an attractive option for long-term investors [19][21]. - Robinhood Markets has evolved into a multi-product financial platform, with shares trading at approximately 33.6x forward earnings, below its historical median, and is expected to see revenue growth of 53% this year [23][26]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The recent software correction presents an attractive entry point for high-quality growth stocks, as the market may be overstating the speed and severity of disruption from AI, particularly for established industry leaders [27][28]. - Valuations for several premier software franchises have reset to levels rarely seen over the past decade, improving the risk-reward profile for long-term investors [28].