【导读】存储芯片涨疯了 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 美股上涨 1月6日晚间，美股三大指数继续上涨。 | AC N 49110.46 | 00 V 23441.38 | 6917.22 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 +0.27% | 纳斯达克综合指数 +0.19% | 标普500指数 +0.22% | 到目前为止，股市投资者对委内瑞拉局势紧张基本不为所动，三年牛市仍在延续，而这轮行情主要由对AI相关股票的需求推动。周二公布的美国服务业 PMI低于预期，进一步抬升了市场对降息的押注；本周稍晚还将发布商业活动与就业市场数据。 周一拉斯维加斯CES展会上，多家芯片巨头集中发布最新动态后，AI主线仍将是市场焦点。英伟达CEO黄仁勋表示，备受期待的Rubin数据中心处理器已 进入量产，客户很快就能试用相关技术。英伟达股价一度上涨近2%，带动三大股指整体走强。其他与AI相关的股票也推升大盘。 Innovator ETFs研究与投资策略主管Tom O'Shea表示："从历史经验看，登上头条的地缘政治事件可能带来短期波动并压低股价。但这一次，标普500指数 在行动后的首个交易日反而上涨， ...

星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 以3个月之速度完成辅导后，中国DRAM龙头制造商长鑫科技集团股份有限公司（下称"长鑫科技"）在科创板IPO于12月30日晚间正式获得受理，拟首发募资295亿元。 值得一提的是，长鑫科技是科创板首单获受理的预先审阅IPO项目。公司的IPO申请已预先审阅，并在受理当天披露了两轮预先审阅问询函的回复。 张力制图 中国第一，全球第四 长鑫科技申报科创板上市拟募资295亿元，用于存储器晶圆制造量产线技术升级改造项目、DRAM存储器技术升级项目、动态随机存取存储器前瞻技术研究与开发项目建设，合计总投资规模达345亿元。 公司表示，随着本次上市募集资金建设项目的稳步推进，公司将加速工艺升级，从而实现更低的单位成本，更强的市场竞争力及盈利能力。 招股书显示，长鑫科技成立于2016年，是中国规模最大、技术最先进、布局最全的动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）研发设计制造一体化企业，采用IDM（垂直整合制造）业务模式。公司提供DRAM晶圆、DRAM 芯片、DRAM 模组等多元化产品方案，长鑫科技的产品主要覆盖 DDR、LPDDR两大主流系列，目前已完成从DDR4、LPDDR4X到DDR5、L ...

Core Insights - Nvidia has been a major player in the AI computing infrastructure sector, but five other tech stocks focused on AI data centers have shown even more remarkable growth in 2025 [1][2] - The AI infrastructure spending by major tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta is projected to reach approximately $380 billion in 2025, with a potential 50% increase in 2026 [3] - The semiconductor market is expected to see significant growth, with a projected total value of $772.2 billion in 2025 and $975.5 billion in 2026, driven by AI infrastructure demands [7][6] Group 1: AI Computing Stocks - Lumentum is highlighted as a key winner in the AI computing supply chain, with its stock price increasing nearly 400% in 2025, driven by demand for optical components in AI data centers [1][11] - Western Digital's stock has surged nearly 300% in 2025, as AI data centers require massive storage solutions for large datasets [14][15] - Micron Technology, as a major U.S. memory chip manufacturer, is benefiting from the AI infrastructure boom, with its stock price rising approximately 240% in 2025 [17][20] Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - Analysts predict that the semiconductor industry will experience a "super cycle," with significant growth in AI chip, storage, and optical interconnect sectors [4][5] - The global AI infrastructure investment wave is expected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for AI-related investments [5][19] - The demand for high-performance storage solutions, particularly HBM and SSDs, is expected to continue to rise, with Micron and other storage companies positioned to benefit significantly [18][21] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Celestica, a key player in manufacturing high-performance network switches for AI data centers, has seen its stock rise over 230% in 2025 [27][28] - Seagate's stock has increased by 231% in 2025, driven by the growing demand for HDDs and SSDs in AI data centers [23][25] - The competitive landscape between Google and OpenAI in the AI computing space is expected to benefit companies like Lumentum and Western Digital, as both companies require advanced storage and optical interconnect solutions [10][12]

开栏语 2025年，是全球经济在复苏与重构中寻找新平衡的一年，也是中国产业在经历了数年技术积淀、市场激 荡与模式探索后，进入深度分化与价值重塑的关键节点。我们不再仅仅追逐风口，而是更冷静地审视风 口之下正在发生的改变：存储芯片"超级周期"搅动市场，国产正凭借成熟的性能、稳定的供应突围； 新能源汽车穿越价格战，驶向全球化的深海；金价暴涨，点燃一场现代淘金热；AI大模型卸下炫技光 环，沉入产业毛细血管；短剧现象则掀开了内容消费的底层革命。 这一年的核心叙事是分化与沉淀，当所有行业都在接受价值的重新丈量，真正的机遇只属于那些穿透周 期噪音、构筑内生力量的建设者。我们在此记录这场静默而深刻的重塑——潮水退去时，留在岸上的才 是这个时代真正的重量。 图/IC 风浪越大鱼越贵，刘成就坐上了芯片这艘船。 "不可思议。"在深圳华强北经营电子器件生意二十余年的刘成明显感受到这个行业的巨浪。他回忆，自 己从U盘、MP3时代一路走来，经历过多次存储芯片周期，"但这一次涨价的幅度和持续时间，超乎想 象"，而收益也随之实现了"一年顶三年"。 AI热潮引发需求爆发，叠加国际大厂产能调整，存储芯片价格一路飞涨。今年以来，DRAM与NAND ...

存储芯片进入新一轮涨价周期。12月24日，据韩国《朝鲜日报》消息，三星电子、SK海力士两大存储 巨头已上调明年HBM3E价格，涨幅接近20%。伴随存储现货价格全面持续上扬，市场分析指出，全球 存储芯片市场已正式迈入新一轮成长周期。 本轮涨价背后，是供需两端的共同作用。供应方面，存储厂商预计明年第六代HBM（即HBM4）需求 将增加，加大对其产能投入，导致HBM3E产能遭到积压。需求方面，除了英伟达之外，来自谷歌、亚 马逊等公司的订单量也大幅增加。 iPhone搭载的是低功耗双倍数据率存储芯片（LPDDR），这类芯片经过专门优化，能够满足移动设备 对能效和散热性能的严苛要求。 摩根士丹利研报指出，AI驱动下存储行业供需失衡加剧，预计将开启持续数年的"超级周期"，到2027年 全球存储市场规模有望向3000亿美元迈进。 研究机构CFM数据显示，仅在2025年上半年，DRAM综合价格指数就大幅上涨了47.7%，NAND Flash （闪存芯片）综合价格指数上涨了9.2%。进入10月份以来，512Gb Flash Wafer（闪存晶圆）价格累计涨 幅已超20%。 招商证券分析称，预计存储产业后续DRAM和NAND资本 ...

（原标题：AI基建狂潮之下存储需求狂飙 ?美光(MU.US)业绩碾压预期! 暗示"超级周期"延伸至2027 年） 智通财经APP获悉，美国最大规模计算机存储芯片制造商美光科技(MU.US)就当前季度给出了极度乐观 的业绩展望数据，远超华尔街分析师们近日不断上调的一致预期，并且意外提高2026财年资本支出，加 上美光CEO暗示这一轮"存储芯片超级周期"有望延续至2027年，进一步表明全球布局AI的史无前例热潮 之下存储芯片需求激增以及供应端长期短缺正使得该公司能够对其DRAM/NAND系列存储芯片产品收 取更高昂价格。 美光最新公布的远超华尔街分析师普遍预期的业绩数据与展望前景，以及全球最大规模的两大存储芯片 制造商——来自韩国的SK海力士与三星此前公布的强劲业绩与未来展望，所凸显出的包括HBM存储系 统在内的存储产品量价狂增之势，可谓全方位验证"存储超级周期"逻辑。在截至11月27日的2026财年第 一季度中，该存储芯片巨头业绩同样远超分析师们不断上修的预期，共同推动美光股价在美股盘后一度 暴涨超8%，在AI泡沫论调席卷全球之际可谓顽强托起"AI牛市叙事"以及投资者们"AI信仰"。 在所谓"存储芯片超级周期" ...

美国最大规模计算机存储芯片制造商美光科技(MU.US)就当前季度给出了极度乐观的业绩展望数据，远超华尔街分析师们近日不断上调的一致预期，并且意 外提高2026财年资本支出，加上美光CEO暗示这一轮"存储芯片超级周期"有望延续至2027年，进一步表明全球布局AI的史无前例热潮之下存储芯片需求激增 以及供应端长期短缺正使得该公司能够对其DRAM/NAND系列存储芯片产品收取更高昂价格。 美光最新公布的远超华尔街分析师普遍预期的业绩数据与展望前景，以及全球最大规模的两大存储芯片制造商——来自韩国的SK海力士与三星此前公布的 强劲业绩与未来展望，所凸显出的包括HBM存储系统在内的存储产品量价狂增之势，可谓全方位验证"存储超级周期"逻辑。在截至11月27日的2026财年第 一季度中，该存储芯片巨头业绩同样远超分析师们不断上修的预期，共同推动美光股价在美股盘后一度暴涨超8%，在AI泡沫论调席卷全球之际可谓顽强托 起"AI牛市叙事"以及投资者们"AI信仰"。 在所谓"存储芯片超级周期"这一无比强劲的牛市叙事催化之下，美光科技股价走势自今年下半年以来迈入狂飙模式，推动该股今年以来疯涨超170%。美光 为了能够将存储产能专注于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report summarizes significant rating changes from Wall Street that are expected to impact the market, highlighting both upgrades and downgrades across various companies and sectors [1][6]. Upgrades - Synopsys (SNPS): Rosenblatt Securities upgraded the rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," lowering the target price from $605 to $560, anticipating that Q4 results will meet market expectations after a disappointing Q3 [5]. - Eaton Corporation (ETN): Wolfe Research upgraded the rating from "In-Line" to "Outperform," setting a target price of $413, expecting benefits from electrical business orders and easing cyclical factors in 2026 [5]. - Colgate-Palmolive (CL): Royal Bank of Canada upgraded the rating from "Sector Perform" to "Outperform," maintaining a target price of $88, noting that earnings expectations are at a reasonable low despite challenges in 2026 [5]. - RPM International (RPM): Royal Bank of Canada upgraded the rating from "Sector Perform" to "Outperform," raising the target price from $121 to $132, indicating that the stock price has "bottomed out" [5]. - Viking Holdings (VIK): Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," increasing the target price from $66 to $78, citing the company's unique geographic business layout and high-income customer focus [5]. Downgrades - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): Harbor Research downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" without providing a target price, following a hostile takeover bid from Paramount [5]. - Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): Goldman Sachs downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," lowering the target price from $23 to $21, citing an unfavorable risk-reward ratio due to market conditions in the Caribbean [5]. - Confluent (CFLT): Royal Bank of Canada downgraded the rating from "Outperform" to "Sector Perform," raising the target price from $30 to $31, following an acquisition agreement with IBM at $31 per share [5]. - SLM Corporation (SLM): Compass Point downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Sell," reducing the target price from $35 to $23, after revealing updated mid-term outlooks at an investor forum [5]. - Viavi Solutions (VRT): Wolfe Research downgraded the rating from "Outperform" to "In-Line," citing valuation issues as the stock price has increased 14 times since the last upgrade [5]. Initiations - Micron Technology (MU): HSBC initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $330, identifying the company as a core beneficiary of the storage chip supercycle [9]. - United Airlines (UAL): Montreal Bank Capital Markets initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of $125, noting improvements in the industry environment and recovery in business travel [12]. - Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $685, expecting the market for life science tools to return to historical growth rates [12]. - Affirm (AFRM): Wolfe Research initiated coverage with a "Sector Perform" rating, setting a fair value range of $72-$82 for the end of 2026 [10]. - Urban Outfitters (URBN): Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Neutral" rating and a target price of $83, acknowledging market positioning but cautioning against high valuation risks [10].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "super cycle" in storage chips driven by AI is exerting significant cost pressure on global PC and mobile manufacturers, leading to anticipated price increases across the board [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Dell Technologies has issued a price increase warning, indicating that costs will ultimately be passed on to end customers, with a possibility of repricing certain products [1] - HP's CEO has stated the company is prepared to raise product prices if necessary, noting that memory costs currently account for 15% to 18% of typical PC total costs [1] - Lenovo Group plans to follow suit with price increases to counteract rising storage prices, having already locked in production capacity for 2026 to manage costs [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Storage chip prices have surged by 50% cumulatively since the beginning of the price increase phase, with 512GB chips rising nearly 500 yuan since October [1] - Counterpoint Research forecasts that memory prices are expected to rise by an additional 50% by the second quarter of 2026, suggesting that price hikes for mobile and PC products are inevitable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "super cycle" in storage chips driven by AI is exerting significant cost pressure on global PC and mobile device manufacturers, leading to anticipated price increases across the board [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Dell Technologies (DELL.US) and HP (HPQ.US) have issued warnings about potential price hikes due to rising storage costs, with Dell's COO Jeff Clarke noting unprecedented speed in cost increases [1] - Lenovo Group (0992.HK) is also planning to raise prices to counteract the profit pressure from soaring storage prices, which have increased by 50% cumulatively since the price surge began [1] - HP's CEO Enrique Lores indicated that memory costs now account for 15% to 18% of typical PC total costs, and the company is exploring options to mitigate this pressure, including sourcing from more suppliers and potentially reducing memory capacity in some products [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The price of 512GB storage chips has risen by nearly 500 yuan since October, reflecting the broader trend of increasing storage costs [1] - Lenovo has proactively locked in production capacity for 2026 to manage rising costs, with its CFO stating that current component inventory is approximately 50% higher than usual and long-term supply agreements have been signed [1] - Market research firm Counterpoint Research predicts that memory prices will increase by another 50% by the second quarter of 2026, suggesting that price hikes for mobile and PC products are inevitable as storage prices continue to rise [1]