Workflow
新房经纪服务
icon
Search documents
贝壳-W(02423):2025年三季报业绩点评:两翼业务逐渐盈利,大力回购回馈股东
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-14 15:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The two main business segments are gradually becoming profitable, and significant share buybacks are being conducted to reward shareholders. The company is expected to see substantial incremental growth from its home decoration and rental businesses, which are turning profitable. Despite short-term pressures on the brokerage business due to market cycles, the company maintains a clear alpha compared to the industry. Continuous innovation and AI empowerment are expected to enhance quality and efficiency, leading to greater earnings elasticity as market conditions stabilize [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.1 billion yuan (up 2.1%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 750 million yuan (down 36.0%). Adjusted net profit was 1.29 billion yuan (down 27.8%). For the first three quarters of 2025, these figures were 72.4 billion yuan, 2.9 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +16.1%, -16.8%, and -23.3% [6][10]. Business Segments - The rental revenue has increased significantly, countering the decline in the brokerage segment. The company reported a 45.3% year-on-year increase in rental revenue, with over 660,000 managed properties as of Q3 2025. The brokerage business saw a decline in revenue from existing and new homes, with year-on-year changes of -3.6% and -14.1%, respectively [10]. Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 21.4%, with a gross profit decline of 3.9%. The profitability of the rental business improved significantly, contributing a profit margin of 8.7%. The company has successfully managed expenses, with selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 18.4% [10]. Share Buybacks and Future Outlook - The company executed a share buyback amounting to 281 million USD in Q3 2025, the highest in nearly two years. Cumulatively, 675 million USD has been spent on buybacks in the first three quarters, representing nearly 3% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024. The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.78 billion, 7.62 billion, and 8.33 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24.3, 18.4, and 16.9 [10].
贝壳-W:收入和经纪市占率均创新高,业绩波动不改长期向好趋势-20250320
申万宏源· 2025-03-20 01:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and market share in brokerage, indicating a long-term positive trend despite short-term performance fluctuations [6][7] - The company reported a total transaction volume (GTV) of 3.35 trillion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with significant contributions from existing home transactions and emerging businesses [6][7] - The company is focusing on shareholder returns, having repurchased shares worth 716 million USD and planned a cash dividend of 400 million USD, representing 5% of the market value at the end of 2024 [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 77.777 billion yuan - 2024: 93.457 billion yuan (20% YoY growth) - 2025E: 110.740 billion yuan (18% YoY growth) - 2026E: 122.649 billion yuan (11% YoY growth) - 2027E: 135.786 billion yuan (11% YoY growth) [6][10] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 5.883 billion yuan - 2024: 4.065 billion yuan (-31% YoY) - 2025E: 6.201 billion yuan (53% YoY) - 2026E: 7.544 billion yuan (22% YoY) - 2027E: 9.121 billion yuan (21% YoY) [6][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 1.63 yuan - 2024: 1.15 yuan - 2025E: 1.76 yuan - 2026E: 2.14 yuan - 2027E: 2.58 yuan [6][10] Market Share and Business Segments - The company achieved a record high market share of 31% in existing home transactions for 2024, with a transaction volume of 2.25 trillion yuan, up 10.8% YoY [6][7] - In the new home segment, the company reported a transaction volume of 970 billion yuan, down 3.3% YoY, but maintained a market share of 11.4% [6][8] - The company’s home decoration and rental services saw significant revenue growth, with home decoration revenue increasing by 36% and rental services by 135% [6][8] Investment Analysis Opinion - The report concludes that the company’s revenue and brokerage market share are at record highs, and despite short-term performance fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, thus maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][7]