证券研究报告·公司点评报告·其他电子Ⅱ 中熔电气（301031） ◼ 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，市场竞争加剧风险。 2025 年 10 月 28 日 证券分析师 曾朵红 2025 年三季报点评：25Q3 业绩略超预期，电 动车贡献主要增量 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,060 | 1,421 | 2,111 | 2,820 | 3,631 | | 同比（%） | 40.41 | 34.11 | 48.53 | 33.63 | 28.75 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 116.98 | 186.94 | 358.19 | 502.35 | 664.74 | | 同比（%） | (23.94) | 59.80 | 91.61 | 40.25 | 32.33 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.19 | 1.90 | 3.64 | 5.11 | 6.76 | | P/E（现价&最新摊 ...

Macro Strategy - The "urban renewal" initiative is expected to achieve a total investment of at least 4.48 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, averaging nearly 900 billion yuan annually. The main sources of potential demand will come from the renovation of urban villages, old residential areas, and urban infrastructure upgrades [1][18] - The renovation of old residential areas and urban infrastructure is projected to contribute at least 2.35 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by over 470 billion yuan in central budget investments and special bonds [1][18] - The urban village renovation is estimated to contribute 2.13 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, assuming a "half-demolition, half-renovation" approach for the remaining self-built houses [1][18] Economic Data - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance compared to the previous year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate was lower at 3.9% [2][20] - Consumer spending showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in the first half, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while real estate sales showed resilience compared to the previous year [2][20] - Industrial production in June saw a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, supported by strong external demand, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][21] Company Analysis - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027 due to pressure from falling lithium prices and temporary losses in copper smelting, projecting net profits of 4.0/9.6/19.3 billion yuan [10] - Li Ning (02331.HK) anticipates challenges in sales due to deepening discounts and increased expenses, with revised net profit forecasts of 23.1/26.0/29.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [10] - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) is expanding its superstore network and maintaining industry-leading growth, with net profit forecasts of 13.0/14.6/16.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11] - Zhongrong Electric (301031) expects continued high growth in its electric vehicle-related products, projecting net profits of 3.4/4.8/6.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - Huanxin Cement (600801) reported a significant increase in Q2 profits, driven by improvements in domestic cement profitability and overseas operations, with revised net profit forecasts of 28.8/32.2/35.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15]