Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Views - Zhou Li Fu, a well-known domestic gold jewelry brand, leverages an online and offline sales model to penetrate lower-tier markets and achieve differentiated layouts and multi-channel development. The online business is rapidly expanding and is currently leading the industry. With the continuous expansion of the gold jewelry market and the company's potential layout in North and East China, future revenue has strong growth momentum and broad prospects. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 850 million, 980 million, and 1.12 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 16%, and 14% respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23, 20, and 17 times for 2025-2027. Given the company's high online growth and significant expansion potential for offline stores, long-term growth is promising, and the company continues to distribute dividends [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhou Li Fu was established in 2004 and officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 26, 2025. The company provides a variety of jewelry products, including gold jewelry and diamond-inlaid jewelry, through a comprehensive sales network of offline stores and online sales channels. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit of 710 million yuan, also up 7.1% year-on-year. In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit of 420 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [9][14]. 2. Industry Overview - The Chinese gold jewelry market is experiencing steady expansion, with the market size expected to grow from 328.2 billion yuan in 2019 to 568.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6%. By 2029, the market size is projected to reach 818.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 7.6% from 2024 to 2029. The gold jewelry segment is expected to maintain a dominant position, accounting for 73.0% of the total retail sales in 2024, increasing to 75.2% by 2029 [50][49]. 3. Future Growth - Zhou Li Fu is focusing on expanding its offline store network while enhancing its online sales channels. As of the end of 2024, the company had over 4,129 stores, including more than 4,125 in China and 4 overseas. The company is actively penetrating lower-tier markets and expanding into first and second-tier cities. In the first half of 2025, online sales reached 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, accounting for 51.8% of total revenue [60][61].

Core Viewpoint - Zhou Li Fu Jewelry Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the main board listing hearing after multiple attempts, marking a significant milestone in its capital market journey. The company reported impressive financial figures, including a revenue of 5.718 billion yuan and a net profit of 706 million yuan in 2024, supported by a vast offline store network and a high online sales ratio of 40% [1][7]. Group 1: Business Model and Growth - Zhou Li Fu's growth is driven by a franchise model that has led to rapid channel expansion, with the number of stores increasing from 1 in 2004 to 4,129 by the end of 2024, making it one of the top five jewelry brands in China [2]. - The company's revenue structure consists of franchise product sales (50.5%), online direct sales, and self-operated store sales, with franchise service fees being the core profit source, generating a gross profit of 801 million yuan in 2024 [2][3]. - The shift to a light-asset operation model in 2014, which involved closing its own factory, has allowed for efficient returns but also presents risks related to franchisee control [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company's gross profit margin has declined for three consecutive years, from 38.7% in 2022 to 25.9% in 2024, attributed to the increasing proportion of franchise product sales [3]. - Zhou Li Fu faces challenges from rising gold prices, with gold accounting for 98.5% of its raw material procurement, leading to increased costs from 347.6 yuan per gram in 2022 to 487.5 yuan per gram in 2024, which has affected consumer purchasing behavior [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Market Position - In response to market pressures, Zhou Li Fu is diversifying its sales channels, with online sales growing at a compound annual growth rate of 46.1% over the past three years, and plans to open new self-operated stores [4][5]. - The company is also exploring cultural branding and cross-industry marketing to attract younger consumers, launching themed stores and collaborating with popular mobile games [5]. - Zhou Li Fu is expanding internationally, having opened franchise stores in Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Laos, and plans to enter Malaysia and Vietnam [5]. Group 4: IPO and Future Outlook - The upcoming IPO is Zhou Li Fu's sixth attempt, with funds raised aimed at expanding its sales network, brand building, product development, and supply chain optimization [7]. - The company has a significant cash flow challenge, with a cash reserve of only 177 million yuan and liabilities of 741 million yuan, raising concerns about the balance between dividend payouts and strategic investments [7]. - The market outlook for the jewelry sector is positive, with projections indicating a growth in China's gold and jewelry market from 518 billion yuan in 2023 to 811 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% [7].