Core Viewpoint - Huaxin Securities reports that Zhou Shifu (06168), as a leading jewelry enterprise, is continuously optimizing its business model and adjusting product structure according to market demand, while steadily developing the lower-tier market and attempting high-end market strategies, which is expected to drive profit release as brand momentum deepens [1] Industry Overview - The scale of China's jewelry market has increased from 610 billion yuan in 2019 to an estimated 728 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.6%, and is projected to reach 937 billion yuan by 2029, with gold jewelry dominating the market [1] - The industry is experiencing new trends such as "Guochao" (national trend) and IP co-branded products, with companies primarily opening stores to directly face consumers while rapidly expanding online channels [1] - The e-commerce channel for gold jewelry is expected to reach 42.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth [1] - The current industry concentration remains low, with the CR5 for gold jewelry products at 41%, allowing leading companies to continue gaining market share through brand effects and terminal occupation [1] Company Strategy - The company is located in the core gold jewelry production area of Shuibei, leveraging supply chain advantages at the processing end [2] - The company primarily operates through franchise stores, starting from lower-tier markets and expanding into high-tier cities post-pandemic by opening high-end stores to strengthen brand power [2] - As of the first half of 2025, the company has a total of 3,857 stores, with the number of stores in first and second-tier cities accounting for 50% of the total [2] - The company is effectively capturing traffic from interest e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu for brand exposure, with online channel revenue reaching 1.63 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 34% year-on-year increase [2] - The product strategy includes a full-category and full-scenario coverage approach, launching diverse product series such as Xigu Gold, Yihe Wonderland, and Yixin Yiai, focusing on the core demographic of young women and enhancing the youthful brand image through Guochao IP collaborations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxin Securities reports that Zhou Li Fu (06168), as a leading jewelry enterprise, is continuously optimizing its business model and adjusting product structure according to market demand, while steadily developing the lower-tier market and attempting high-end market strategies, thereby enhancing online channel layouts to capture e-commerce traffic benefits, which is expected to drive profit release as brand momentum deepens [1] Industry Summary - The scale of China's jewelry market has increased from 610 billion yuan in 2019 to an estimated 728 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.6%, and is projected to reach 937 billion yuan by 2029, with gold jewelry dominating the market. The "Guochao" trend and IP co-branded products are emerging as new industry hotspots [1] - The industry remains relatively fragmented, with the CR5 for gold jewelry products at 41%, indicating that leading enterprises can continue to gain market share through brand effects and terminal occupation [1] Company Summary - The company is located in the core gold jewelry production area of Shuibei, leveraging supply chain advantages at the processing end. The channel strategy primarily focuses on franchise stores, starting from lower-tier markets and expanding into high-tier cities post-pandemic by opening high-end stores to strengthen brand building [2] - As of the first half of 2025, the company operates 3,857 stores, with the number of stores in first and second-tier cities accounting for 50% of the total. With the optimization of the store model, single-store efficiency is expected to improve further [2] - The company is effectively capturing traffic benefits from interest e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu for brand exposure, with online channel revenue reaching 1.63 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a 34% year-on-year increase [2] - The product strategy implements a full-category and full-scenario coverage approach, launching diversified product series such as Xi Gu Jin, Yi He Xian Jing, and Yi Xin Yi Ai, focusing on the core demographic of young women and enhancing the youthful brand image through Guochao IP collaborations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company, Zhouliufu, is a leading brand in the gold and jewelry industry, with a focus on both online and offline channels for growth [1][3] - The Chinese jewelry market is expected to grow from 728 billion yuan in 2024 to 937 billion yuan by 2029, with gold jewelry maintaining a dominant position [2][32] - The company has a total of 3,857 stores as of mid-2025, ranking fifth in the country, and is expanding its presence in high-end markets while optimizing its store model [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhouliufu was founded in 2004 and has established a strong presence in the gold and jewelry sector, focusing on cost-effective products for the lower-tier markets [17] - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, which has facilitated rapid expansion, with 3,857 stores nationwide by mid-2025 [17][25] Industry Analysis - The jewelry market in China is expanding, driven by consumer demand for gold, which accounted for 73% of the market retail sales value in 2024 [32][34] - The market is characterized by low concentration, with the top five brands holding a combined market share of 41% in gold jewelry [36] Business Model and Strategy - Zhouliufu leverages a dual-channel strategy, with significant growth in online sales, which accounted for 53% of total revenue by mid-2025 [25][45] - The company is focusing on product diversification and targeting young female consumers, with 80% of online users being women aged 18-35 [57] Financial Performance - The company forecasts steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 64.11 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.11% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.82 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23 times [4][11] Market Position - Zhouliufu's market strategy includes expanding into high-end markets while maintaining a strong foothold in lower-tier cities, with a significant number of stores in these areas [50] - The company is actively enhancing its brand image through various marketing initiatives and collaborations, aiming to strengthen its market position [55][56]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Views - Zhou Li Fu, a well-known domestic gold jewelry brand, leverages an online and offline sales model to penetrate lower-tier markets and achieve differentiated layouts and multi-channel development. The online business is rapidly expanding and is currently leading the industry. With the continuous expansion of the gold jewelry market and the company's potential layout in North and East China, future revenue has strong growth momentum and broad prospects. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 850 million, 980 million, and 1.12 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 16%, and 14% respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23, 20, and 17 times for 2025-2027. Given the company's high online growth and significant expansion potential for offline stores, long-term growth is promising, and the company continues to distribute dividends [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhou Li Fu was established in 2004 and officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 26, 2025. The company provides a variety of jewelry products, including gold jewelry and diamond-inlaid jewelry, through a comprehensive sales network of offline stores and online sales channels. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit of 710 million yuan, also up 7.1% year-on-year. In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit of 420 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [9][14]. 2. Industry Overview - The Chinese gold jewelry market is experiencing steady expansion, with the market size expected to grow from 328.2 billion yuan in 2019 to 568.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6%. By 2029, the market size is projected to reach 818.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 7.6% from 2024 to 2029. The gold jewelry segment is expected to maintain a dominant position, accounting for 73.0% of the total retail sales in 2024, increasing to 75.2% by 2029 [50][49]. 3. Future Growth - Zhou Li Fu is focusing on expanding its offline store network while enhancing its online sales channels. As of the end of 2024, the company had over 4,129 stores, including more than 4,125 in China and 4 overseas. The company is actively penetrating lower-tier markets and expanding into first and second-tier cities. In the first half of 2025, online sales reached 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, accounting for 51.8% of total revenue [60][61].