Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, copper prices reached a new historical high and then declined continuously in the second half of the week. This adjustment was the result of a combination of technical factors, the macro - environment, and fundamental forces. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, caught in a "strong expectation" vs. "weak reality" game. Long - term supply concerns and demand prospects support the price floor, but short - term inventory pressure and suppressed demand exert downward pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Copper prices reached a new high last week and then fell due to technical profit - taking, a slight strengthening of the US dollar, lack of short - term macro drivers, inventory accumulation, and the inhibitory effect of high prices on downstream consumption. In the future, short - term high - level volatility is expected, waiting for new macro or fundamental changes [2] Factors to Watch - The report suggests paying attention to US CPI and PPI data, as well as downstream demand changes [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week - **Price Data**: The price of electrolytic copper (≥99.95%) in Shanghai rose from 98,790 yuan/ton last week to 100,330 yuan/ton this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price of oxygen - free copper rods increased from 100,270 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.23%. The clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) decreased from - 44.76 dollars/dry ton to - 45 dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54% [3] - **Premium Data**: The electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai increased from - 185 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 75.68% [3] - **Inventory Data**: LME copper inventory decreased from 145,325 tons to 138,975 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.37%. SHFE copper inventory increased from 145,342 tons to 180,543 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.22% [3] Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio through relevant charts, with data sources including Boyi Master and Ganglian Data [5][6][10] Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents data on copper concentrate forward spot prices, rough copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, and the price trends of electrolytic copper and scrap copper through relevant charts, with data sources from the Ganglian Terminal [14] Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows data on the premium of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, and refined copper rod trading volumes through relevant charts, with data sources including iFinD and the Ganglian Terminal [16] Inventory Situation Analysis - The report presents data on electrolytic copper bonded area inventories and the inventories of three major futures exchanges through relevant charts, with data sources from the Ganglian Terminal and iFinD [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality," with the divergence between futures and spot prices deepening. Geopolitical changes during the New Year's holiday increased market uncertainty. The long - term supply shortage logic remains unchanged, while the demand side is weak due to high copper prices and the year - end adjustment period [2]. - In the short term, copper prices are at an absolute high, and volatility is expected to increase significantly. Macro - sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties will be key variables disturbing the market. In the medium - to - long term, the structural shortage driven by insufficient mine investment, green transformation, and AI demand is still strong, and copper prices are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - Affected by the New Year's holiday, trading days were incomplete last week. Both Shanghai copper and LME copper hit new highs at the beginning of the week and then pulled back to varying degrees [2]. - The copper market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality," with the futures - spot divergence deepening. Geopolitical changes during the holiday increased market uncertainty [2]. - The long - term supply shortage logic remains unchanged, supported by global mine disruptions and smelting - end production cut concerns. The demand side is weak due to high copper prices and the year - end adjustment period, with both production and sales weak and social inventories increasing [2]. - In the short term, copper prices are at a high level, and volatility will increase. Macro - sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties are key variables. In the medium - to - long term, copper prices are expected to oscillate upward due to structural shortages [2]. Factors to Watch - The report suggests paying attention to US PMI and non - farm payroll data, geopolitical changes, and downstream demand fluctuations [3]. Weekly Data Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%, Shanghai) | Yuan/ton | 98790 | 97800 | 990 | 1.01% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%, Shanghai) | Yuan/ton | - 185 | - 350 | 165 | 47.14% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot composite index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 44.76 | - 44.70 | - 0.06 | - 0.13% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 100270 | 98800 | 1470 | 1.49% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 145325 | 157025 | - 11700 | - 7.45% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 145342 | 111703 | 33639 | 30.11% | Weekly | [3] Other Analyses - The report also includes analyses of the futures market, supply, demand, and inventory, with multiple data charts presented, but no specific data analysis content is provided in the text [5][12][16][24]