1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are in a short - term oscillatory pattern. Weak fundamentals restrict the rebound space, while raw material cost support and macro - expectations slow down the downward rhythm. Negative feedback pressure is accumulating, and the resistance to downward breakthrough is less than that to upward breakthrough [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate with weak trend. Short - term policies fall short of expectations, and supply and demand are in a tight balance. After the interest rate cut, trading will be closer to the fundamentals [20]. - For coal and coke, downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase. A substantial positive policy or a significant decline in coal mine operating rates is needed to break through the previous high [30]. - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The decline space is limited as it is near the cost line [46]. - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3164, 3227, and 3071 respectively, and those of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3357, 3365, and 3414 respectively [4]. - The基差and月差of螺纹钢and热卷had different changes compared with the previous day [4][7][9]. - **Analysis** - The current weak fundamentals of steel restrict the rebound space, and the negative feedback pressure is increasing [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 803.5, 783, and 762 respectively. The基差and月差also had corresponding changes [21]. - **Fundamentals** - The daily average pig iron output was 241.02 million tons, and the 45 - port疏港量was 339.17 million tons. The global shipping volume decreased by 248.3 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the焦煤仓单 cost and基差of different varieties had different changes. The焦炭仓单 cost and基差also showed corresponding trends [33]. - **Analysis** - Downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase [30]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads** - For silicon iron, on September 24, 2025, the基差in Ningxia was - 18, and the月差also changed. For silicon manganese, the基差in Inner Mongolia was 198, and the月差had corresponding changes [46][49]. - **Analysis** - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality [46]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1394, 1448, and 1307 respectively, with daily increases of 2.42%, 1.76%, and 2.67% respectively [60]. - **Analysis** - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1356, 1424, and 1237 respectively, with daily increases of 3.35%, 2.52%, and 4.56% respectively [85]. - **Analysis** - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84].

Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent decline in polysilicon futures, with a drop of 2.17% to 50,925.0 yuan, indicating market volatility and potential impacts on future pricing trends [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Polysilicon futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 50,820.0 yuan before recovering slightly [1]. - The main contract for polysilicon is currently reported at 50,925.0 yuan, reflecting a 2.17% decrease [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures predicts a short-term high-level fluctuation for polysilicon, noting an increase in warehouse receipts to 6,730 contracts, indicating heightened hedging pressure [2]. - Jianxin Futures suggests a cautiously strong operation for polysilicon, with an expected production increase to 125,000 tons in August, while September will see production constraints due to policy measures [3]. - Wukuang Futures anticipates continued high volatility in polysilicon prices, driven by ongoing production growth and the impact of capacity integration policies [4].

上周，商品市场掀起"涨停潮"时，甲醇期货表现相对平稳。本周市场情绪降温后，甲醇期货价格大幅下 跌，7月28日主力合约下跌近4%，昨日下跌0.33%。 广发期货能化分析师苗扬表示，在工业品价格整体上涨的背景下，甲醇期货表现相对较弱，看多情绪降 温后，市场将回归基本面交易。 展望后市，苗扬认为，受供需结构、库存变化及外部宏观变量的影响，甲醇预计呈现短期偏弱震荡、中 期反弹的格局。"短期来看，供应压力边际增加，需求端持续疲软，港口累库趋势未改，价格面临回调 压力。中期来看，随着9月传统需求旺季临近，叠加潜在检修增加及进口不确定性，基本面或逐步改 善，价格重心有望上移。"他建议，后续需要跟踪进口到货节奏、下游烯烃装置恢复进度等情况。 齐盛期货分析师蔡英超表示，当前甲醇需求有所下滑，下游厂家也会在雨季集中进行检修，这段时间的 供需矛盾并不大。同时，港口地区开始累库，市场需要在此期间囤积一定货物，备战"金九银十"的需求 旺季。 在苗扬看来，本周甲醇期货价格大幅下跌的直接原因是市场情绪反转，但根本驱动力仍是基本面边际走 弱。 宏观层面，"反内卷"政策预期降温，工业品期货价格全线下跌。甲醇作为能化品种，受煤炭价格拖累及 自身 ...

Report Title - Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] Date - July 10, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Ferrous alloys showed a certain rebound sentiment driven by the rebound in coal prices and technical buying. Last week, they maintained an upward trend with the proposed elimination of outdated production capacity. The recent upward trend is mainly due to policy expectations and the strength of coal prices. However, the spot market is dragged down by steel mills' price cuts and weakening costs. In the context of the gradual entry of terminal steel demand into the off - season, the long - term trend of ferrous alloys remains relatively weak. With profit restoration, the operating rate has rebounded, and production is in a state of over - seasonal increase. Output has slightly increased, but downstream demand has not changed significantly, and there is a trend of inventory accumulation. With the price reduction of manganese ore in August and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, combined with the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferrous alloys are expected to continue to operate weakly. Although ferrous alloys, as an over - capacity industry, benefited from the policy of eliminating outdated production capacity last week, after the market recovery, there is a high possibility of profit restoration and increased production, supply pressure will gradually increase, and the de - stocking speed will slow down. In the short term, the strong expectation is prevailing in the game between strong expectation and weak reality, and it remains to be seen whether the expectation can be realized [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Alloy Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 16.37% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.7%, and for ferromanganese, it is 14.42% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.7% [2] Ferrous Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [2] Core Contradiction - Ferrous alloys rebounded due to coal price and policy factors, but the long - term trend is weak due to factors such as steel mills' price cuts, weakening costs, and off - season demand. There is a trend of over - seasonal production increase and inventory accumulation. After the market recovery, supply pressure may increase [3] Bullish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: This week, the inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.46%. The profit in the Ningxia production area was - 148 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [4] - **Ferromanganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the profit in the northern region was - 158.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.54 yuan, and in the southern region, it was - 489.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.98 yuan [6] Bearish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: There is a possibility of increased production due to profit restoration. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises was 31.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25%, and the weekly output was 100,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%. There is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of ferrous alloys. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration following the June cancellation rules. The expected decline in hot metal production will weaken the support for ferrous alloys [7] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand lead to weak demand for ferromanganese. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises was 40.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%, and the weekly output was 180,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [8] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 8, a day - on - day decrease of 92 and a week - on - week decrease of 6. The 01 - 05 spread was - 46, a day - on - day decrease of 10 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The 05 - 09 spread was 84, a day - on - day increase of 6 and a week - on - week increase of 42. The 09 - 01 spread was - 38, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 17,855, a day - on - day increase of 5028 and a week - on - week increase of 8177 [9] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 132, a day - on - day decrease of 68 and a week - on - week increase of 8. The 01 - 05 spread was - 24, a day - on - day increase of 8 and a week - on - week increase of 12. The 05 - 09 spread was 60, a day - on - day decrease of 12 and a week - on - week decrease of 16. The 09 - 01 spread was - 36, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The double - silicon spread was - 326, a day - on - day decrease of 26 and a week - on - week decrease of 36. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 85,444, a day - on - day decrease of 547 and a week - on - week decrease of 4154 [10][11] Seasonal Charts - Provided seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]