▲CCMN现货镍本周走势图 影响本周镍价走势复盘：长江现货市场1#镍价呈现出典型的"倒V型"剧烈震荡走势。全周行情以急涨急跌为主 要特征，市场情绪转换迅速。价格从周一开盘约139,800元/吨起步，在乐观情绪推动下连续强势上行，并于周三 触及周内高点151,600元/吨，三日累计涨幅显著。然而，高价区域遭遇强劲阻力，随后市场风向骤变，自周三峰 值后价格急速回落，在获利了结与抛压影响下连续下行，至周五收盘时已回落至约143,850元/吨附近，几乎回吐 前半周全部涨幅。尽管全周收盘价仍略高于周初开盘，勉强录得小幅上涨，但这一明显的"冲高—回落"形态， 凸显出市场多空博弈异常激烈，价格在短期内缺乏坚实支撑。后续走势需密切关注当前价位附近的整固情况， 以及新的供需平衡点能否形成。本周总均价报146050元/吨，较前一周整体上涨1170元。 本周（1月5-9日）长江现货镍价走势呈现先暴涨后暴跌的"倒V型"过山车行情，其核心驱动力是宏观预期与现实 基本面的剧烈碰撞。 走势回顾：预期推动冲高，现实压制回落 周初（5-6日）急涨：价格从139,800元/吨涨至144,750元/吨。主要受印尼拟大幅削减镍矿配额的突发消息刺激， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality," with the divergence between futures and spot prices deepening. Geopolitical changes during the New Year's holiday increased market uncertainty. The long - term supply shortage logic remains unchanged, while the demand side is weak due to high copper prices and the year - end adjustment period [2]. - In the short term, copper prices are at an absolute high, and volatility is expected to increase significantly. Macro - sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties will be key variables disturbing the market. In the medium - to - long term, the structural shortage driven by insufficient mine investment, green transformation, and AI demand is still strong, and copper prices are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - Affected by the New Year's holiday, trading days were incomplete last week. Both Shanghai copper and LME copper hit new highs at the beginning of the week and then pulled back to varying degrees [2]. - The copper market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality," with the futures - spot divergence deepening. Geopolitical changes during the holiday increased market uncertainty [2]. - The long - term supply shortage logic remains unchanged, supported by global mine disruptions and smelting - end production cut concerns. The demand side is weak due to high copper prices and the year - end adjustment period, with both production and sales weak and social inventories increasing [2]. - In the short term, copper prices are at a high level, and volatility will increase. Macro - sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties are key variables. In the medium - to - long term, copper prices are expected to oscillate upward due to structural shortages [2]. Factors to Watch - The report suggests paying attention to US PMI and non - farm payroll data, geopolitical changes, and downstream demand fluctuations [3]. Weekly Data Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%, Shanghai) | Yuan/ton | 98790 | 97800 | 990 | 1.01% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%, Shanghai) | Yuan/ton | - 185 | - 350 | 165 | 47.14% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot composite index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 44.76 | - 44.70 | - 0.06 | - 0.13% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 100270 | 98800 | 1470 | 1.49% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 145325 | 157025 | - 11700 | - 7.45% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 145342 | 111703 | 33639 | 30.11% | Weekly | [3] Other Analyses - The report also includes analyses of the futures market, supply, demand, and inventory, with multiple data charts presented, but no specific data analysis content is provided in the text [5][12][16][24]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 长安期货 张晨 一、行情走势回顾 2025年12月甲醇期现货先抑后扬，主力合约完成换月，11月下旬伊朗个别装置停车一度提振市场情绪， 但后续装置运行情况变动有限，供需仍偏宽松，市场再次交易弱现实，盘面再次下跌，近月合约表现相 对坚挺，而资金移仓换月压力下远月合约承压，多跌破前低，中旬，随着港口连续去库、海外检修装置 进一步增多，进口预期减少，市场情绪回暖，价格回升，但做空力量仍未完全消退，多空围绕库存与需 求博弈，月底虽港口库存再次回升，但海外装置停车及地缘扰动缓解供应压力预期，盘面大幅反弹，主 力合约逼近月内高点。 现货市场表现分化，港口地区随盘调整，需求疲软及海外供应收缩交织，价格震荡上行，下游采购偏谨 慎。内地价格表现弱于港口，产地装置产能利用率高位，库存压力不大但厂家出货意愿强，叠加冬季运 费上涨，企业让利出货，价格反弹乏力。12月31日，太仓进口价2202元/吨，环比月初上涨84元/吨，广 东市场价2180元/吨，环比月初上涨90元/吨，鲁南市场价2160元/吨，环比月初下降20元/吨，川渝主流 市场价2235元/吨，环比月初上涨16 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月29日 周报 铜：铜价新高，现货承压 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：内外盘铜价在"强预期"与"弱现实"的激烈博弈中实现历史性突破。LME 铜价于周初率先触及高点，沪铜主力合约则于周五盘中触及98,800元/吨的历史新高。本周市场最突 出的特征在于"强预期"彻底压倒了"弱现实"，在期货价格创下新高的同时，现货市场发出了明确 的疲软信号。 宏观面上，宽松预期延续，美元持续走弱为铜价提供支撑。供给端，智利矿山罢工带来减产风险， 矿端生产扰动与冶炼端CSPT的联合减产计划形成共振，强化供应紧张叙事。需求端，极高的现货价格 已严重抑制实际消费，下游采购极为谨慎，现货电解铜贴水持续扩大，社会库存增幅显著。周内铜价 飙升主要由高涨的市场情绪驱动，一旦情绪退潮，铜价可能会出现剧烈波动。中长期看涨逻辑不改， 警惕短期高位回调风险，做好风险防范。 关注因素：中美12月PMI数据、美联储会议纪要、下游需求变动 | | 单位 | 本周最新 | 上周同期 | 周度环比 | 周度环比 | 频率 | | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several commodity futures in the agricultural products sector, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil. It analyzes the driving factors and market conditions for each variety [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Market expects China to resume purchasing US soybeans, and there is uncertainty in Brazilian production area weather, driving up US soybean futures prices. China's soybean arrivals are expected to decrease monthly, alleviating long - term supply pressure. However, current soybean meal inventory is high, and downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with demand not expected to increase significantly. The market is waiting for the USDA report and China's actual purchase of US soybeans to determine the price breakthrough direction, leading to increased short - term price volatility at high levels [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil end - of - month inventory increased by 4.44% month - on - month to 2.4645 million tons, slightly higher than expected, indicating supply pressure. But exports increased by 18.58% month - on - month to 1.6929 million tons, exceeding expectations, which alleviated market pessimism. However, high - frequency data showed that exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.3% month - on - month, casting a shadow on future demand. Overall, the fundamental situation of palm oil has not changed, and short - term rebound space is limited [7]. Soybean Oil 2601 - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. Palm 2601 - **Viewpoints**: Short - term is "weak", medium - term is "oscillating", intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by its biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows a mixed trend, with polysilicon futures experiencing an upward movement, reflecting a complex interplay between supply constraints and weak demand in the photovoltaic sector [1] Supply Side - Polysilicon production is expected to decrease, with output in November projected to drop to 120,000 tons due to maintenance of some production capacities [1] - As of October 31, polysilicon manufacturers' inventory has decreased to 256,000 tons, down by 10,600 tons from the previous week, indicating a downward trend in overall inventory levels [1] Demand Side - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak season for photovoltaic installations; however, the growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China from January to September has slowed significantly compared to last year [1] - Due to the weak demand for photovoltaic components, orders from component manufacturers have not met expectations, leading to reduced procurement of polysilicon from upstream suppliers [1] Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak real demand, with the expectation that polysilicon spot prices will remain supported under policy expectations, despite the inability of downstream sectors to raise prices due to weak demand [1] - The forecast suggests that polysilicon prices will fluctuate within a high range, indicating a potential for range-bound trading [1]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on soda ash and glass, dated November 5, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly, with supply stable, inventory slightly decreasing, and potential demand changes due to production line shutdowns. Glass is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality", with short - term price fluctuations and medium - term direction determined by fundamentals [8][9] Section Summaries 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data**: On November 4, SA601 opened low and closed at 1189 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-1.73%), with 40,018 additional positions. SA605 closed at 1280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.53%) [7][8] - **Soda Ash Fundamentals**: Weekly production increased by 1.70 tons to 75.76 tons. Demand at the end of October showed an increase of 2.53%. Alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.20 tons. Four coal - fired glass production lines in Shahe may affect demand, and the market may face oversupply in winter [8] - **Glass Futures Data**: FG601 closed at 1105 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.18%), with 105,499 fewer positions. FG605 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.56%) [7] - **Glass Fundamentals**: Four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will shut down. Glass supply is at a high level. Factory inventory is high, and real - estate demand is weak. The market is in a game between expectation and reality, with short - term price fluctuations [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on soda ash and glass, including active contract price trends, weekly production, and enterprise inventory, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [12][15]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall pattern of soda ash remains weak, with stable supply, slightly increasing inventory, and unchanged heavy soda demand. The supply - demand imbalance has improved, but the anti - involution expectation has not materialized, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - Glass is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The real - estate market's completion is below expectations, and the industry lacks new production - limiting policies. The market confidence is insufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On October 30, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash closed at 1,235 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 1.12%, with a daily reduction of 22,468 lots. Weekly production increased by 0.01 million tons to 74.06 million tons, and the equipment maintenance was at a high level for the same period. In mid - October, the total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73.90 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The demand for heavy soda remained unchanged. The alkali plant inventory rose to 1.7021 billion tons, at a relatively low level in the past six months. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. Glass - Fundamentally, the production of float glass is stable, and the photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance. The overall glass supply is at a high level this year, and the possibility of cold repair is low. After the festival, the factory inventory remains high, and the inventory days have increased. The real - estate market has not shown a stable trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and potential positive factors such as macro - policies and production line changes need to be monitored [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, market price of heavy soda in Central China, and flat glass production [12][15][16].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the imbalance between high supply and weak demand, challenges to cost support, and the conflict between anti - involution expectations and weak reality. Ferroalloy prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and international trade frictions. However, there is also a possibility of short - term rebounds driven by market expectations for policy changes [2][3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The contradiction between high supply and weak demand: Ferroalloy production profit is declining, and downstream demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season. Silicon iron production has started to decline, while silicon manganese production increased slightly this week. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese inventories are at a five - year high, with silicon iron enterprise inventory up 4.5% and silicon manganese enterprise inventory up 8.2% week - on - week [2]. - Challenges to cost support: Although the prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the high - supply and weak - demand pattern challenges the effectiveness of cost support. The rising coking coal price provides some support, but there is a risk of price decline if the meeting results are disappointing [2]. - The contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality: The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, but there is a lack of substantial action, leading to a high risk of price fluctuations. International trade frictions and weak steel fundamentals further suppress ferroalloy demand [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Technically, the 10 - day moving average of ferroalloy is moving downwards and has broken below the 60 - day moving average. However, the shrinking green bars of MACD indicate weakening downward momentum. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound, but there will be pressure on the upside due to the poor fundamentals [12]. - **Price range**: The price range of the silicon iron main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400, and that of the silicon manganese main contract is 5500 - 6500 [12]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and there is currently no basis strategy. For the calendar spread, although the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloy is at a five - year low, it is not recommended to go long. The spread may further weaken, but the risk of reverse arbitrage is also high [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The monthly price range of silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.37% and a historical percentile of 43.9% over three years. The monthly price range of silicon manganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.24% and a historical percentile of 9.6% over three years [13]. - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits and hedge against inventory depreciation. The recommended short - selling ratio is 15%, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 for silicon manganese [13]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures to lock in procurement costs. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, with an entry range of 5200 - 5300 for silicon iron and 5300 - 5400 for silicon manganese [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on regulating price competition. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to introduce policies for stabilizing the real estate market and reducing involution [14][15]. - **Negative information**: The EU has tightened steel import restrictions, and Mexico plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese steel and automobiles. Sino - US trade frictions and weak steel fundamentals have dampened market sentiment [16]. - **Weekly data**: Silicon iron production decreased by 0.3 to 11.28, and silicon iron plant inventory increased by 3050 to 69080. Silicon manganese production increased by 4585 to 208810, and silicon manganese plant inventory increased by 20000 to 262500 [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Next Monday, China's Q3 GDP annual rate, one - year loan prime rate, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment will be released. Next Friday, the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced. The evolution of Sino - US trade frictions also needs attention [17]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trends and capital movements**: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract 2601 was 5430, up 0.63% week - on - week, and the total open interest increased by 8.6% to 411,000 lots. The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract 01 was 5718, down 0.69% week - on - week, and the total open interest increased by 5.85% to 598,000 lots. The net short position of silicon iron is increasing, while the net short position of silicon manganese is decreasing [17]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and structure**: The term structure of ferroalloy is in contango, but the term structure of some silicon iron contracts is improving. The contango structure of coking coal is bearish for ferroalloy prices in the short term. The basis of ferroalloy is fluctuating narrowly, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread is at a five - year low. It is not recommended to go long, and the spread may further weaken [21][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Ferroalloy profit is continuously declining. Silicon iron production remains high, giving enterprises a strong incentive to cut production. Silicon manganese production has been falling for several weeks [40]. - The export profit of silicon iron is declining, and its export volume is expected to decrease [64]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Supply: Although there is an expectation of increased production during the peak season, the continuous decline in production profit is likely to lead to a decrease in ferroalloy production. The production of silicon manganese in the southern region may also decline with the arrival of the flat - water season [68]. - Demand: Seasonally, ferroalloy demand should increase during the peak season, but the decline in the profit of downstream products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, along with the accumulation of five - major steel products' inventory, restrains the demand for ferroalloy. The demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline slightly [68]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts are expected to continue to be destocked due to approaching forced cancellation months and seasonal patterns. Total inventory is expected to decline slowly [68]. 5.2 Supply - Side Projection - The decline in production profit does not support an increase in ferroalloy production. The production of silicon manganese in the southern region may decrease with the flat - water season. Silicon iron production is expected to decline slightly due to a significant drop in production profit [70]. 5.3 Demand - Side Projection - The demand for ferroalloy is affected by the weak profit of downstream products and the accumulation of five - major steel products' inventory. The high - level iron - water production is difficult to maintain, and the steel - making demand for ferroalloy may decline. The decline in silicon iron export profit will also affect its export volume [74]. 5.4 Inventory - Side Projection - Given the high operating rate of ferroalloy enterprises and weak downstream demand, enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. However, warehouse receipts are expected to be destocked, and total inventory will decline slowly [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are in a short - term oscillatory pattern. Weak fundamentals restrict the rebound space, while raw material cost support and macro - expectations slow down the downward rhythm. Negative feedback pressure is accumulating, and the resistance to downward breakthrough is less than that to upward breakthrough [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate with weak trend. Short - term policies fall short of expectations, and supply and demand are in a tight balance. After the interest rate cut, trading will be closer to the fundamentals [20]. - For coal and coke, downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase. A substantial positive policy or a significant decline in coal mine operating rates is needed to break through the previous high [30]. - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The decline space is limited as it is near the cost line [46]. - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3164, 3227, and 3071 respectively, and those of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3357, 3365, and 3414 respectively [4]. - The基差and月差of螺纹钢and热卷had different changes compared with the previous day [4][7][9]. - **Analysis** - The current weak fundamentals of steel restrict the rebound space, and the negative feedback pressure is increasing [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 803.5, 783, and 762 respectively. The基差and月差also had corresponding changes [21]. - **Fundamentals** - The daily average pig iron output was 241.02 million tons, and the 45 - port疏港量was 339.17 million tons. The global shipping volume decreased by 248.3 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the焦煤仓单 cost and基差of different varieties had different changes. The焦炭仓单 cost and基差also showed corresponding trends [33]. - **Analysis** - Downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase [30]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads** - For silicon iron, on September 24, 2025, the基差in Ningxia was - 18, and the月差also changed. For silicon manganese, the基差in Inner Mongolia was 198, and the月差had corresponding changes [46][49]. - **Analysis** - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality [46]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1394, 1448, and 1307 respectively, with daily increases of 2.42%, 1.76%, and 2.67% respectively [60]. - **Analysis** - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1356, 1424, and 1237 respectively, with daily increases of 3.35%, 2.52%, and 4.56% respectively [85]. - **Analysis** - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84].