Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several commodity futures in the agricultural products sector, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil. It analyzes the driving factors and market conditions for each variety [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Market expects China to resume purchasing US soybeans, and there is uncertainty in Brazilian production area weather, driving up US soybean futures prices. China's soybean arrivals are expected to decrease monthly, alleviating long - term supply pressure. However, current soybean meal inventory is high, and downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with demand not expected to increase significantly. The market is waiting for the USDA report and China's actual purchase of US soybeans to determine the price breakthrough direction, leading to increased short - term price volatility at high levels [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil end - of - month inventory increased by 4.44% month - on - month to 2.4645 million tons, slightly higher than expected, indicating supply pressure. But exports increased by 18.58% month - on - month to 1.6929 million tons, exceeding expectations, which alleviated market pessimism. However, high - frequency data showed that exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.3% month - on - month, casting a shadow on future demand. Overall, the fundamental situation of palm oil has not changed, and short - term rebound space is limited [7]. Soybean Oil 2601 - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. Palm 2601 - **Viewpoints**: Short - term is "weak", medium - term is "oscillating", intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by its biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows a mixed trend, with polysilicon futures experiencing an upward movement, reflecting a complex interplay between supply constraints and weak demand in the photovoltaic sector [1] Supply Side - Polysilicon production is expected to decrease, with output in November projected to drop to 120,000 tons due to maintenance of some production capacities [1] - As of October 31, polysilicon manufacturers' inventory has decreased to 256,000 tons, down by 10,600 tons from the previous week, indicating a downward trend in overall inventory levels [1] Demand Side - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak season for photovoltaic installations; however, the growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China from January to September has slowed significantly compared to last year [1] - Due to the weak demand for photovoltaic components, orders from component manufacturers have not met expectations, leading to reduced procurement of polysilicon from upstream suppliers [1] Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak real demand, with the expectation that polysilicon spot prices will remain supported under policy expectations, despite the inability of downstream sectors to raise prices due to weak demand [1] - The forecast suggests that polysilicon prices will fluctuate within a high range, indicating a potential for range-bound trading [1]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on soda ash and glass, dated November 5, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly, with supply stable, inventory slightly decreasing, and potential demand changes due to production line shutdowns. Glass is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality", with short - term price fluctuations and medium - term direction determined by fundamentals [8][9] Section Summaries 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data**: On November 4, SA601 opened low and closed at 1189 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-1.73%), with 40,018 additional positions. SA605 closed at 1280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.53%) [7][8] - **Soda Ash Fundamentals**: Weekly production increased by 1.70 tons to 75.76 tons. Demand at the end of October showed an increase of 2.53%. Alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.20 tons. Four coal - fired glass production lines in Shahe may affect demand, and the market may face oversupply in winter [8] - **Glass Futures Data**: FG601 closed at 1105 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.18%), with 105,499 fewer positions. FG605 closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.56%) [7] - **Glass Fundamentals**: Four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will shut down. Glass supply is at a high level. Factory inventory is high, and real - estate demand is weak. The market is in a game between expectation and reality, with short - term price fluctuations [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on soda ash and glass, including active contract price trends, weekly production, and enterprise inventory, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [12][15]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall pattern of soda ash remains weak, with stable supply, slightly increasing inventory, and unchanged heavy soda demand. The supply - demand imbalance has improved, but the anti - involution expectation has not materialized, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - Glass is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The real - estate market's completion is below expectations, and the industry lacks new production - limiting policies. The market confidence is insufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On October 30, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash closed at 1,235 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 1.12%, with a daily reduction of 22,468 lots. Weekly production increased by 0.01 million tons to 74.06 million tons, and the equipment maintenance was at a high level for the same period. In mid - October, the total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73.90 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The demand for heavy soda remained unchanged. The alkali plant inventory rose to 1.7021 billion tons, at a relatively low level in the past six months. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. Glass - Fundamentally, the production of float glass is stable, and the photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance. The overall glass supply is at a high level this year, and the possibility of cold repair is low. After the festival, the factory inventory remains high, and the inventory days have increased. The real - estate market has not shown a stable trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and potential positive factors such as macro - policies and production line changes need to be monitored [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, market price of heavy soda in Central China, and flat glass production [12][15][16].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the imbalance between high supply and weak demand, challenges to cost support, and the conflict between anti - involution expectations and weak reality. Ferroalloy prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and international trade frictions. However, there is also a possibility of short - term rebounds driven by market expectations for policy changes [2][3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The contradiction between high supply and weak demand: Ferroalloy production profit is declining, and downstream demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season. Silicon iron production has started to decline, while silicon manganese production increased slightly this week. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese inventories are at a five - year high, with silicon iron enterprise inventory up 4.5% and silicon manganese enterprise inventory up 8.2% week - on - week [2]. - Challenges to cost support: Although the prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the high - supply and weak - demand pattern challenges the effectiveness of cost support. The rising coking coal price provides some support, but there is a risk of price decline if the meeting results are disappointing [2]. - The contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality: The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, but there is a lack of substantial action, leading to a high risk of price fluctuations. International trade frictions and weak steel fundamentals further suppress ferroalloy demand [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Technically, the 10 - day moving average of ferroalloy is moving downwards and has broken below the 60 - day moving average. However, the shrinking green bars of MACD indicate weakening downward momentum. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound, but there will be pressure on the upside due to the poor fundamentals [12]. - **Price range**: The price range of the silicon iron main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400, and that of the silicon manganese main contract is 5500 - 6500 [12]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and there is currently no basis strategy. For the calendar spread, although the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloy is at a five - year low, it is not recommended to go long. The spread may further weaken, but the risk of reverse arbitrage is also high [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The monthly price range of silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.37% and a historical percentile of 43.9% over three years. The monthly price range of silicon manganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.24% and a historical percentile of 9.6% over three years [13]. - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits and hedge against inventory depreciation. The recommended short - selling ratio is 15%, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 for silicon manganese [13]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures to lock in procurement costs. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, with an entry range of 5200 - 5300 for silicon iron and 5300 - 5400 for silicon manganese [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on regulating price competition. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to introduce policies for stabilizing the real estate market and reducing involution [14][15]. - **Negative information**: The EU has tightened steel import restrictions, and Mexico plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese steel and automobiles. Sino - US trade frictions and weak steel fundamentals have dampened market sentiment [16]. - **Weekly data**: Silicon iron production decreased by 0.3 to 11.28, and silicon iron plant inventory increased by 3050 to 69080. Silicon manganese production increased by 4585 to 208810, and silicon manganese plant inventory increased by 20000 to 262500 [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Next Monday, China's Q3 GDP annual rate, one - year loan prime rate, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment will be released. Next Friday, the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced. The evolution of Sino - US trade frictions also needs attention [17]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trends and capital movements**: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract 2601 was 5430, up 0.63% week - on - week, and the total open interest increased by 8.6% to 411,000 lots. The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract 01 was 5718, down 0.69% week - on - week, and the total open interest increased by 5.85% to 598,000 lots. The net short position of silicon iron is increasing, while the net short position of silicon manganese is decreasing [17]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and structure**: The term structure of ferroalloy is in contango, but the term structure of some silicon iron contracts is improving. The contango structure of coking coal is bearish for ferroalloy prices in the short term. The basis of ferroalloy is fluctuating narrowly, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread is at a five - year low. It is not recommended to go long, and the spread may further weaken [21][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Ferroalloy profit is continuously declining. Silicon iron production remains high, giving enterprises a strong incentive to cut production. Silicon manganese production has been falling for several weeks [40]. - The export profit of silicon iron is declining, and its export volume is expected to decrease [64]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Supply: Although there is an expectation of increased production during the peak season, the continuous decline in production profit is likely to lead to a decrease in ferroalloy production. The production of silicon manganese in the southern region may also decline with the arrival of the flat - water season [68]. - Demand: Seasonally, ferroalloy demand should increase during the peak season, but the decline in the profit of downstream products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, along with the accumulation of five - major steel products' inventory, restrains the demand for ferroalloy. The demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline slightly [68]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts are expected to continue to be destocked due to approaching forced cancellation months and seasonal patterns. Total inventory is expected to decline slowly [68]. 5.2 Supply - Side Projection - The decline in production profit does not support an increase in ferroalloy production. The production of silicon manganese in the southern region may decrease with the flat - water season. Silicon iron production is expected to decline slightly due to a significant drop in production profit [70]. 5.3 Demand - Side Projection - The demand for ferroalloy is affected by the weak profit of downstream products and the accumulation of five - major steel products' inventory. The high - level iron - water production is difficult to maintain, and the steel - making demand for ferroalloy may decline. The decline in silicon iron export profit will also affect its export volume [74]. 5.4 Inventory - Side Projection - Given the high operating rate of ferroalloy enterprises and weak downstream demand, enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. However, warehouse receipts are expected to be destocked, and total inventory will decline slowly [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are in a short - term oscillatory pattern. Weak fundamentals restrict the rebound space, while raw material cost support and macro - expectations slow down the downward rhythm. Negative feedback pressure is accumulating, and the resistance to downward breakthrough is less than that to upward breakthrough [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate with weak trend. Short - term policies fall short of expectations, and supply and demand are in a tight balance. After the interest rate cut, trading will be closer to the fundamentals [20]. - For coal and coke, downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase. A substantial positive policy or a significant decline in coal mine operating rates is needed to break through the previous high [30]. - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The decline space is limited as it is near the cost line [46]. - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3164, 3227, and 3071 respectively, and those of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3357, 3365, and 3414 respectively [4]. - The基差and月差of螺纹钢and热卷had different changes compared with the previous day [4][7][9]. - **Analysis** - The current weak fundamentals of steel restrict the rebound space, and the negative feedback pressure is increasing [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 803.5, 783, and 762 respectively. The基差and月差also had corresponding changes [21]. - **Fundamentals** - The daily average pig iron output was 241.02 million tons, and the 45 - port疏港量was 339.17 million tons. The global shipping volume decreased by 248.3 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the焦煤仓单 cost and基差of different varieties had different changes. The焦炭仓单 cost and基差also showed corresponding trends [33]. - **Analysis** - Downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase [30]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads** - For silicon iron, on September 24, 2025, the基差in Ningxia was - 18, and the月差also changed. For silicon manganese, the基差in Inner Mongolia was 198, and the月差had corresponding changes [46][49]. - **Analysis** - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality [46]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1394, 1448, and 1307 respectively, with daily increases of 2.42%, 1.76%, and 2.67% respectively [60]. - **Analysis** - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1356, 1424, and 1237 respectively, with daily increases of 3.35%, 2.52%, and 4.56% respectively [85]. - **Analysis** - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84].

Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent decline in polysilicon futures, with a drop of 2.17% to 50,925.0 yuan, indicating market volatility and potential impacts on future pricing trends [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Polysilicon futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 50,820.0 yuan before recovering slightly [1]. - The main contract for polysilicon is currently reported at 50,925.0 yuan, reflecting a 2.17% decrease [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures predicts a short-term high-level fluctuation for polysilicon, noting an increase in warehouse receipts to 6,730 contracts, indicating heightened hedging pressure [2]. - Jianxin Futures suggests a cautiously strong operation for polysilicon, with an expected production increase to 125,000 tons in August, while September will see production constraints due to policy measures [3]. - Wukuang Futures anticipates continued high volatility in polysilicon prices, driven by ongoing production growth and the impact of capacity integration policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has shown relative weakness amidst overall industrial price increases, with a significant price drop observed as market sentiment cooled down [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures prices fell sharply, with a nearly 4% drop on July 28 and a further decline of 0.33% recently [1]. - Analysts indicate that the weak performance of methanol futures is due to a lack of strong upward drivers in its fundamentals, despite macroeconomic bullish sentiment [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol fundamentals exhibit three high characteristics: high supply elasticity, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with port inventories up 22% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic production remains high, and there is an expectation of increased imports, particularly from Iran, which may reach 381,700 tons by the end of July [2]. - The demand side is challenged by traditional downstream sectors facing losses, with methanol production rates for formaldehyde at only 27.96% and low operating rates for MTO facilities [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The methanol market is expected to experience short-term weakness and mid-term rebound, influenced by supply-demand structure, inventory changes, and external macro variables [3]. - Analysts suggest monitoring the pace of imports and the recovery of downstream ethylene facilities as key indicators for future price movements [3]. - The current situation shows that over 60% of downstream enterprises are in a loss-making state, which could impact future demand [4].

Report Title - Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] Date - July 10, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Ferrous alloys showed a certain rebound sentiment driven by the rebound in coal prices and technical buying. Last week, they maintained an upward trend with the proposed elimination of outdated production capacity. The recent upward trend is mainly due to policy expectations and the strength of coal prices. However, the spot market is dragged down by steel mills' price cuts and weakening costs. In the context of the gradual entry of terminal steel demand into the off - season, the long - term trend of ferrous alloys remains relatively weak. With profit restoration, the operating rate has rebounded, and production is in a state of over - seasonal increase. Output has slightly increased, but downstream demand has not changed significantly, and there is a trend of inventory accumulation. With the price reduction of manganese ore in August and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, combined with the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the off - season, ferrous alloys are expected to continue to operate weakly. Although ferrous alloys, as an over - capacity industry, benefited from the policy of eliminating outdated production capacity last week, after the market recovery, there is a high possibility of profit restoration and increased production, supply pressure will gradually increase, and the de - stocking speed will slow down. In the short term, the strong expectation is prevailing in the game between strong expectation and weak reality, and it remains to be seen whether the expectation can be realized [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Alloy Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 16.37% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.7%, and for ferromanganese, it is 14.42% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.7% [2] Ferrous Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [2] Core Contradiction - Ferrous alloys rebounded due to coal price and policy factors, but the long - term trend is weak due to factors such as steel mills' price cuts, weakening costs, and off - season demand. There is a trend of over - seasonal production increase and inventory accumulation. After the market recovery, supply pressure may increase [3] Bullish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: This week, the inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.46%. The profit in the Ningxia production area was - 148 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [4] - **Ferromanganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the profit in the northern region was - 158.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.54 yuan, and in the southern region, it was - 489.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.98 yuan [6] Bearish Interpretation - **Ferrosilicon**: There is a possibility of increased production due to profit restoration. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises was 31.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25%, and the weekly output was 100,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%. There is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of ferrous alloys. The warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration following the June cancellation rules. The expected decline in hot metal production will weaken the support for ferrous alloys [7] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long term, the sluggish real estate market and doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand lead to weak demand for ferromanganese. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises was 40.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%, and the weekly output was 180,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [8] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 8, a day - on - day decrease of 92 and a week - on - week decrease of 6. The 01 - 05 spread was - 46, a day - on - day decrease of 10 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The 05 - 09 spread was 84, a day - on - day increase of 6 and a week - on - week increase of 42. The 09 - 01 spread was - 38, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 17,855, a day - on - day increase of 5028 and a week - on - week increase of 8177 [9] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 132, a day - on - day decrease of 68 and a week - on - week increase of 8. The 01 - 05 spread was - 24, a day - on - day increase of 8 and a week - on - week increase of 12. The 05 - 09 spread was 60, a day - on - day decrease of 12 and a week - on - week decrease of 16. The 09 - 01 spread was - 36, a day - on - day increase of 4 and a week - on - week increase of 4. The double - silicon spread was - 326, a day - on - day decrease of 26 and a week - on - week decrease of 36. The spot prices in different regions showed various changes, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 85,444, a day - on - day decrease of 547 and a week - on - week decrease of 4154 [10][11] Seasonal Charts - Provided seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]