Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, copper prices reached a new historical high and then declined continuously in the second half of the week. This adjustment was the result of a combination of technical factors, the macro - environment, and fundamental forces. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, caught in a "strong expectation" vs. "weak reality" game. Long - term supply concerns and demand prospects support the price floor, but short - term inventory pressure and suppressed demand exert downward pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Copper prices reached a new high last week and then fell due to technical profit - taking, a slight strengthening of the US dollar, lack of short - term macro drivers, inventory accumulation, and the inhibitory effect of high prices on downstream consumption. In the future, short - term high - level volatility is expected, waiting for new macro or fundamental changes [2] Factors to Watch - The report suggests paying attention to US CPI and PPI data, as well as downstream demand changes [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week - **Price Data**: The price of electrolytic copper (≥99.95%) in Shanghai rose from 98,790 yuan/ton last week to 100,330 yuan/ton this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price of oxygen - free copper rods increased from 100,270 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.23%. The clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) decreased from - 44.76 dollars/dry ton to - 45 dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54% [3] - **Premium Data**: The electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai increased from - 185 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 75.68% [3] - **Inventory Data**: LME copper inventory decreased from 145,325 tons to 138,975 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.37%. SHFE copper inventory increased from 145,342 tons to 180,543 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.22% [3] Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio through relevant charts, with data sources including Boyi Master and Ganglian Data [5][6][10] Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents data on copper concentrate forward spot prices, rough copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, and the price trends of electrolytic copper and scrap copper through relevant charts, with data sources from the Ganglian Terminal [14] Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows data on the premium of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, and refined copper rod trading volumes through relevant charts, with data sources including iFinD and the Ganglian Terminal [16] Inventory Situation Analysis - The report presents data on electrolytic copper bonded area inventories and the inventories of three major futures exchanges through relevant charts, with data sources from the Ganglian Terminal and iFinD [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality," with the divergence between futures and spot prices deepening. Geopolitical changes during the New Year's holiday increased market uncertainty. The long - term supply shortage logic remains unchanged, while the demand side is weak due to high copper prices and the year - end adjustment period [2]. - In the short term, copper prices are at an absolute high, and volatility is expected to increase significantly. Macro - sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties will be key variables disturbing the market. In the medium - to - long term, the structural shortage driven by insufficient mine investment, green transformation, and AI demand is still strong, and copper prices are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - Affected by the New Year's holiday, trading days were incomplete last week. Both Shanghai copper and LME copper hit new highs at the beginning of the week and then pulled back to varying degrees [2]. - The copper market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality," with the futures - spot divergence deepening. Geopolitical changes during the holiday increased market uncertainty [2]. - The long - term supply shortage logic remains unchanged, supported by global mine disruptions and smelting - end production cut concerns. The demand side is weak due to high copper prices and the year - end adjustment period, with both production and sales weak and social inventories increasing [2]. - In the short term, copper prices are at a high level, and volatility will increase. Macro - sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties are key variables. In the medium - to - long term, copper prices are expected to oscillate upward due to structural shortages [2]. Factors to Watch - The report suggests paying attention to US PMI and non - farm payroll data, geopolitical changes, and downstream demand fluctuations [3]. Weekly Data Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%, Shanghai) | Yuan/ton | 98790 | 97800 | 990 | 1.01% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%, Shanghai) | Yuan/ton | - 185 | - 350 | 165 | 47.14% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot composite index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 44.76 | - 44.70 | - 0.06 | - 0.13% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 100270 | 98800 | 1470 | 1.49% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 145325 | 157025 | - 11700 | - 7.45% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 145342 | 111703 | 33639 | 30.11% | Weekly | [3] Other Analyses - The report also includes analyses of the futures market, supply, demand, and inventory, with multiple data charts presented, but no specific data analysis content is provided in the text [5][12][16][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The copper prices of both domestic and foreign markets achieved a historic breakthrough in the intense game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The LME copper price reached a high point at the beginning of the week, and the main contract of Shanghai copper hit a record high of 98,800 yuan/ton during Friday's trading session. The "strong expectation" completely overwhelmed the "weak reality" this week. While the futures price reached a new high, the spot market sent a clear signal of weakness. The long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but be vigilant against the short - term risk of high - level correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review and Outlook - Macroscopically, the loose expectation continues, and the continuous weakening of the US dollar provides support for copper prices. On the supply side, the strike at Chilean mines brings the risk of production cuts. The production disturbances at the mine end resonate with the joint production cut plan of CSPT at the smelting end, strengthening the narrative of supply shortage. On the demand side, the extremely high spot price has seriously suppressed actual consumption. Downstream procurement is extremely cautious, the discount of spot electrolytic copper continues to widen, and the increase in social inventory is significant. The sharp rise in copper prices this week is mainly driven by high market sentiment. Once the sentiment fades, copper prices may fluctuate sharply [2]. Attention Factors - Pay attention to the Sino - US PMI data for December, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, and changes in downstream demand [3]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 97800 | 92315 | 5485 | 5.94% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | - 350 | - 155 | - 195 | - 125.81% | Weekly | | SHFE: Electrolytic copper: Basis | yuan/ton | - 980 | - 940 | - 40 | - 4.26% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | yuan/ton | 98800 | 93410 | 5390 | 5.77% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | tons | 157025 | 160400 | - 3375 | - 2.10% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | tons | 111703 | 95805 | 15898 | 16.59% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The content mainly includes the price trend charts of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio, with data sources from Boyi Master and Nanjing Securities Futures [5][6][8]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - It involves charts such as the forward spot price of copper concentrate (measured by TC price), the average spot processing price of blister copper, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, the price change trend of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference in major markets. The data sources are from Steel Union Terminal and Nanjing Securities Futures [13][14][16]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The content contains charts such as the premium/discount of 1 electrolytic copper (≥99.95%) in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgy). The data sources are from iFinD and Steel Union Terminal [21][22][27]. 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - It includes charts of electrolytic copper bonded area inventory and the inventory of three major futures exchanges, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Nanjing Securities Futures [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the global copper market's volatility decreased, and copper prices showed a narrow - range oscillation with a slow upward trend. The main driver of copper prices in August was its financial attribute, and the fundamentals at home and abroad were differentiated. In September, the financial and commodity attributes of copper are expected to drive prices upwards jointly, and copper prices are expected to reach a second high in the fourth quarter [5][6][105] - The global copper supply and demand pattern in 2025 is tight, with a significant supply gap in copper concentrates. The refined copper surplus scale is expected to narrow, and the domestic copper market will be in a tight - balance pattern [88] Summary by Directory 1. Global Macro and Copper Market - In the third quarter in China, there is a policy window period, but market risk appetite has rebounded. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, which is favorable for copper prices in September. The US manufacturing industry is expanding, the employment market is loose, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, and the US dollar index has weakened [10][12][16] 2. Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: Globally, the supply of copper concentrates in the second quarter was relatively loose, but the annual output increase was limited. The supply shortage situation is difficult to ease in the short term, and the supply gap in 2025 is expected to exceed 1.1 million metal tons. In the future, the increment will mainly come from existing expansion projects [21][25] - **Smelting End**: Although the supply of domestic copper concentrates is tight, the production of refined copper has reached new highs. However, the constraint of mine - end supply on electrolytic copper production will become more obvious in the future. The processing fees of domestic copper concentrates are expected to continue to decline, and the production in the second half of the year is likely to be lower than that in the first half [32][35] - **Recycled Copper**: The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened, and the production of recycled copper has decreased. In the next stage, the substitution effect on copper concentrates is expected to increase [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Trade**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper exports increased and imports decreased, achieving a tight - balance in supply and demand. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products in August, the import window is expected to open in September, and the import volume will gradually recover [41] 3. Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Copper Products**: The output of domestic copper products is gradually emerging from the off - season. In September, the output is likely to increase month - on - month, and the annual output is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year [46] - **Copper Rod**: The output of refined copper rods is expected to recover. In September, the downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the operating rate of enterprises is expected to rise [49] - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tubes has decreased month by month, and the copper demand in the third quarter has dropped to the lowest point of the year. In September, the internal and external sales of air - conditioners are expected to decline significantly, and the copper demand will further decrease [52] - **Copper Bar**: The demand for copper bars is expected to decline year - on - year, and the output will show negative growth, becoming the main drag on copper consumption [55] - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The output of copper plate and strip is lower than the average level in recent years. In September, the output is expected to increase month - on - month [58] - **Copper Foil**: The output of copper foil has increased against the trend and is about to enter the peak season. In September, the output is expected to continue to increase and reach a new high for the year [65] - **Power Grid and Power Source Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment is expected to increase, while the power source investment growth has slowed down. The copper demand on the power source side is expected to decline in the second half of the year compared with the first half [68] - **Real Estate**: The real estate investment improvement is not obvious, and it will still be the main drag on copper consumption this year [71] - **Household Appliances**: The household appliance consumption in the first half of the year has overdrawn the demand in the third quarter, and the copper demand on the household appliance side has gradually declined to the lowest point of the year [74] - **New Energy Vehicles and AI**: The output of new energy vehicles maintains high - speed growth, and the AI copper demand will contribute incremental demand in the future [78] 4. Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In August, the copper inventory trends at home and abroad were significantly differentiated. COMEX and LME copper inventories continued to accumulate, while domestic inventories decreased. In September, the domestic copper fundamentals are expected to strengthen further, and the inventories are expected to decline further [84] 5. Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply gap is expected to exceed 1.1 million metal tons. The refined copper surplus scale is expected to narrow to about 194,000 tons, and the domestic copper market will be in a tight - balance pattern [88] 6. Copper Position Analysis - In August, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options continued to decline, and the net long position decreased, which had a negative impact on copper prices. The long - position of LME copper investment funds remained basically stable [96] 7. Arbitrage Analysis - The copper Shanghai - London ratio has continued to decline since the beginning of the year. The copper - zinc ratio has continued to rise and reached the highest level in the past 10 years, and it is expected to continue to rise in the remaining time of this year [101] 8. Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In September, the financial and commodity attributes of copper are expected to drive prices upwards jointly. The copper price is expected to reach a second high in the fourth quarter, and the high point will be higher than that in the first half of the year. Downstream demanders are recommended to actively set prices and conduct buying hedging operations on the futures market. The support range for the main contract price of Shanghai copper is expected to be 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [105]