Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding risks associated with stock investments, highlighting that while stocks may offer higher long-term returns compared to gold and bonds, they also come with significant risks that investors often overlook [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Returns and Risks - Over the past 20 years, the annualized return of the CSI 300 index was 7.91%, but it experienced a maximum drawdown of 72.3%. In comparison, the NASDAQ 100 had an annualized return of 14.34% with a maximum drawdown of 53.71% [4]. - The volatility of global stock markets is significant, and while the CSI 300 may show strong gains in certain years, it is often followed by substantial corrections and risks [5]. - Many investors lack the capacity to endure large fluctuations in stock prices, leading them to sell at a loss before recovering from downturns [7]. Group 2: Performance Comparison with Bonds and Gold - In the past decade, gold achieved an annualized return of 13.03%, while the CSI 300 had an annualized return of -1.8%. Over the last three years, the annualized return of Chinese bonds was 4.93%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300's -3.63% [8]. - Stock returns are tied to corporate earnings, which can be adversely affected by economic downturns, industry changes, and policy shifts. During such times, bonds and commodities may perform better due to their low correlation with stocks [8]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Realities - The actual returns for investors differ from theoretical stock market returns, largely due to individual investor behavior. Many investors mistakenly believe they can easily buy low and sell high, which is often an illusion created by hindsight [9]. - Historical trends indicate that only 20% of investors possess the necessary knowledge and strategies to achieve long-term profits, while 80% do not, leading to negative returns [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation - A balanced investment strategy that includes stocks, bonds, and commodities can enhance risk-adjusted returns. For example, a portfolio consisting of 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% gold showed a cumulative return of over 100% in the past seven years, with a maximum drawdown of only 7.67% [10][12]. - The proposed investment allocation includes 60% in equity funds, 30% in bond funds, and 10% in commodity funds, which can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility and improve long-term performance [12][14].

以下文章来源于府库 ，作者府库 府库 . 规划投资理财，温暖幸福生活 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：府库 来源：雪球 目前资产配置的理念接受度更高了，并且现在看到配置的资产类别也是更加多元化了。 永远有一类资产是绕不过去的，就是股票类资产，因为从很多的历史数据分析中，股票都是长期收益最好的资产。上图是我整理的7个主要国家和 地区的核心指数走势，分别是沪深300、恒生指数、标普500、日经225、德国DAX、英国富时100、法国CAC40，可以看到他们历史的走势差别是 挺大的。 另外就是对这些资产进行相关性分析，可以看到这些资产之间的相关性并不是太高，主要的特征是亚洲股市的相关性高一些，欧洲内部相关性很 高，欧美整体相关性也高一些。 基于这样的结果，很容易得出来的一个投资思路是这些股票之间的相关性没有那么高，如果把他们组成一个组合，是不是就能达到有些时候这些国 家的股市表现好，有些时候另外一些国家的股市表现好，整体涨涨跌跌，就能有一个比较稳定的收益曲线了。 但回测的结果说明这样的投资思路会有一些坑。 | 指标 | 投资组合 | 业绩基准 | | -- ...