以下文章来源于老丁养基 ，作者老丁养基 老丁养基 . 通过基金从业考试、中级经济师，采用"场外多元资产配置基金定投+场内ETF小额灵活操作+LOF基金套利"策略，追求行稳致远，先求不败再求胜。 来源：雪球 今天看到万得发布了一张 " 近十年全球大类资产表现图 " ， 老丁觉得很有意义 ， 也有些感触 ， 和大家一起分享 。 话不多说 ， 先看图 ： ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 老丁养基 01 没有永远的冠军 ， 只有永远的风水轮流转 这里面比特币真的很牛 ， 但是对于大多数朋友来说 ， 和老丁一样买不到也买不起 ， 所以就直接忽略它 ， 看看我们常见的一些市场和资产表现 情况 。 先看股票市场 ： A股 ， 2019年大涨36% ， 2020年表现也不错 ， 但到了2021年 、 2022年 、 2023年就成了垫底的 " 选手 " ， 而2024年 、 2025年又杀 回前列 。 这节奏 ， 跟热点切换似的 。 而 日本 ， 近三年涨幅排位明显靠前 ， 涨幅都还可以 ， 最低也是19%+ 。 但2016年 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has finally surpassed the 3600-point mark, which has not been seen for nearly a decade, leading to optimism about a potential bull market [1][4] - The bull market has already begun in certain sectors, such as the banking index and innovative pharmaceutical index, which have shown significant gains [5][6] - Historical data indicates that while the overall index may rise, individual sector performance can vary greatly, with some sectors lagging behind [6][7] Group 2 - During previous bull markets, the Shanghai Composite Index's growth was less than 100%, and less than 35% of sectors experienced over 100% growth, indicating a structural bull market rather than a comprehensive one [6][10] - The performance of individual stocks during a bull market can lead to significant disparities in returns, emphasizing the importance of sector selection [7][11] - The article highlights that many investors may not benefit from the bull market if they are invested in underperforming sectors, regardless of the index's performance [11][12] Group 3 - The article suggests that the focus should not solely be on whether a bull market has arrived, but rather on whether individual accounts are positioned to benefit from it [13][14] - A diversified investment strategy is recommended to capture opportunities across different markets and asset classes, regardless of market conditions [16][24] - The All Weather Strategy, as demonstrated by Bridgewater, shows that a diversified approach can yield stable returns across various macroeconomic environments [16][19][22]

Group 1 - The article discusses a stable investment portfolio strategy, with a stock allocation of 30%-60%, bond allocation of 30%-55%, and commodity allocation of 10%-15% [4][6] - The current portfolio consists of approximately 29% in stocks, 58% in bonds, and 13% in commodities, with a weekly return of 0.52% and a year-to-date return of 3.79% [6][4] - Recent adjustments include increasing positions in solar energy and gold, reflecting a cautious approach to market conditions [6][4] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of self-awareness in investing, suggesting that understanding one's own risk tolerance and investment needs is crucial [10][11] - It highlights the tendency of investors to chase short-term gains while neglecting their own financial situation and risk capacity [10][12] - The concept of risk recognition is presented as the first step in investing, advocating for a diversified asset allocation strategy that aligns with individual risk profiles [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stock assets in long-term investment strategies, highlighting their historical performance compared to other asset classes [5][10]. Asset Allocation Insights - The acceptance of diversified asset allocation strategies has increased, with a broader range of asset classes being considered [3]. - A correlation analysis of major stock indices reveals that while Asian markets show higher correlation, European markets are also closely related, suggesting potential benefits from diversification across different regions [8][15]. Investment Strategy and Performance - Backtesting results indicate that a diversified portfolio of stocks from seven major countries yields a cumulative return of 289.02%, slightly lower than the benchmark of 299.04%, with an annualized return of 7.07% [10]. - The maximum drawdown for the portfolio was 54.71%, indicating significant risk despite the lower annualized volatility compared to the benchmark [10]. - Historical performance shows that while most years yield positive returns, there are notable downturns in specific years, such as 2008 and 2022, where the portfolio experienced substantial losses [12][18]. Risk Management and Diversification - The article suggests that during extreme market conditions, the correlation between different stock markets tends to increase, leading to simultaneous declines, which undermines the benefits of diversification [17][18]. - To mitigate risks during such periods, it is recommended to include assets with different driving factors, such as bonds and commodities, in the investment portfolio [18][34]. Recommended Asset Allocation - A proposed asset allocation strategy includes 60% in equity funds, 30% in bond funds, and 10% in commodity funds, aimed at balancing risk and return [20][22]. - The bond allocation is intended to provide stability and reduce overall portfolio volatility, while equity funds are expected to capture growth opportunities [23][24]. Conclusion - The article advocates for a diversified investment approach that incorporates various asset classes to enhance long-term returns while managing risks associated with market volatility [34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a simplified asset allocation strategy using a minimal number of funds while adhering to the principles of diversification and market distribution as outlined in the "three-part method" [1][2]. Asset Allocation Summary - The proposed asset allocation consists of 30% bond funds, 50% equity funds, and 20% commodity funds, aiming for an annual return target of approximately 8-10% with a maximum drawdown controlled within 15% [3][8]. Equity Funds (50%) - The equity allocation focuses on sharing the benefits of global economic growth and high-quality companies, characterized by high risk and high return [5]. - The selected funds include: - 25% in China Asset: CICC CSI 300 Index A, which employs a "good company, good price" selection logic and has outperformed the CSI 300 by 67% over the past five years [6][8]. - 25% in Overseas Asset: BOCOM NASDAQ 100 Index Fund, known for its strong performance and comprising top technology companies like Microsoft and Apple [9]. Bond Funds (30%) - The bond fund chosen is E Fund China Bond New Comprehensive Index Fund, which passively tracks a diversified index and aims for stable returns in the bond market [8]. Commodity Funds (20%) - The commodity allocation is entirely in gold through the Guotai Gold ETF Link A, which tracks gold contracts and has shown a 13% annualized return over the past five years [7][9]. Performance Analysis - The backtesting results indicate that the simplified portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 46.81% over three years, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which declined by 9.49% during the same period [13]. - The annualized return for the simplified portfolio was 14.15%, compared to -3.38% for the CSI 300, with a maximum drawdown of only 6% versus 25% for the index [15][16]. Additional Considerations - Suggestions for further diversification include adding U.S. Treasury funds, Hong Kong stock funds, small-cap funds, and oil funds to enhance the portfolio's resilience and potential returns [17][18].