Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding risks associated with stock investments, highlighting that while stocks may offer higher long-term returns compared to gold and bonds, they also come with significant risks that investors often overlook [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Returns and Risks - Over the past 20 years, the annualized return of the CSI 300 index was 7.91%, but it experienced a maximum drawdown of 72.3%. In comparison, the NASDAQ 100 had an annualized return of 14.34% with a maximum drawdown of 53.71% [4]. - The volatility of global stock markets is significant, and while the CSI 300 may show strong gains in certain years, it is often followed by substantial corrections and risks [5]. - Many investors lack the capacity to endure large fluctuations in stock prices, leading them to sell at a loss before recovering from downturns [7]. Group 2: Performance Comparison with Bonds and Gold - In the past decade, gold achieved an annualized return of 13.03%, while the CSI 300 had an annualized return of -1.8%. Over the last three years, the annualized return of Chinese bonds was 4.93%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300's -3.63% [8]. - Stock returns are tied to corporate earnings, which can be adversely affected by economic downturns, industry changes, and policy shifts. During such times, bonds and commodities may perform better due to their low correlation with stocks [8]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Realities - The actual returns for investors differ from theoretical stock market returns, largely due to individual investor behavior. Many investors mistakenly believe they can easily buy low and sell high, which is often an illusion created by hindsight [9]. - Historical trends indicate that only 20% of investors possess the necessary knowledge and strategies to achieve long-term profits, while 80% do not, leading to negative returns [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation - A balanced investment strategy that includes stocks, bonds, and commodities can enhance risk-adjusted returns. For example, a portfolio consisting of 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% gold showed a cumulative return of over 100% in the past seven years, with a maximum drawdown of only 7.67% [10][12]. - The proposed investment allocation includes 60% in equity funds, 30% in bond funds, and 10% in commodity funds, which can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility and improve long-term performance [12][14].

晚上好呀，本周开始，每周一我会和大家回顾上周市场的周度情况，同时分享小雪三分法实盘的表现和复盘。 01 什么是小雪三分法实盘账户？ 和大家简单介绍下小雪实盘的创建初心和背景，小雪作为一个金融行业的打工人，在每天的工作中，看过太多投资者因为追涨杀跌而亏损的痛心 案例，所以我也一直在思考： 有没有一种更科学理性、更可持续的投资方式，让我们离投资复利的真相更近一些？ 今年我即将步入三十岁，决定用行动来寻找答案。我在2024年10月28日创建了自己的三分法实盘账户。根据我的风险偏好-能承受的最大亏 损、预计年化收益、可投时长，匹配出来的是【成长型方案】，债股商的比例为30%：60%：10%，这也是我基于自身情况做的一个实践。 在具体的配置上，我遵循资产分散、市场分散、时间分散。首先在大类资产上，我按照方案的提示比例，做了股债商的均衡配置。 其中偏债方向，我国经济复苏和政策空间仍需要有较低的利率水平支持，因此大部分债券仍然选择中债，叠加美元债获取美国的高票息收益和美 联储降息收益。这部分债券资产也是整个配置账户中的压舱石，在极端行情下，会发挥一定的抗波动效应。 在偏股方向，目前国内海外的资产配置比例约5:1，海外部分选 ...