Q&A 今年双十一的预售情况如何？整体电商销售情况是否符合预期？ 互联网 - Q3 电商调研-化妆品 20251021 摘要 2025 年双十一前夕，各大电商平台提前启动促销活动，但整体效果不 及预期，李佳琦等头部主播带货热度下降，小红书社区讨论度也未见明 显提升，预示着今年双十一淘天平台增长或将面临挑战。 淘天平台调整促销策略，拉长活动周期，通过"超级八八"等活动集中 促销，旨在避免消费者对频繁促销的麻木感，但预售数据显示，双十一 期间淘天平台可能难以实现显著增长，品牌方目标或为持平。 2025 年 618 期间，电商平台普遍采用千人千面券和智能优惠券，折扣 力度加大，部分商品叠加优惠后可达 6 折，提高了转化率，改善了商家 的 ROI，但 ROI 提升并非普遍现象，取决于品牌补贴策略和客单价调整。 抖音平台通过超级补贴等方式提升高客单价产品转化率，但整体增长幅 度有限。初步数据显示，抖音平台 ROI 提升约 0.2 左右，但需待退货期 结束后才能确定最终效果。 淘天平台取消万象台后，主要使用直通车和引力魔方进行广告投放，新 整合的全站智投工具简化了投放流程，类似于拼多多的智能化方向，但 目前整体变化不大， ...

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's introduction of smart coupons is seen as a strategic move to capture market share, while Alibaba may struggle to implement a similar tool effectively due to its brand-centric approach and internal resource coordination challenges [1][21]. Financial Performance - Pinduoduo's Q4 total revenue was 110.61 billion, falling short of market expectations of 115.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24%, marking the second-lowest in history [7]. - Commission revenue reached 53.6 billion, growing by 33%, while advertising revenue was 57.01 billion, with a decelerated growth rate of 17% [8]. Smart Coupons Mechanism - Smart coupons are generated automatically for products promoted through the "全站推" (All Site Push) feature, with a portion of the advertising budget allocated to consumer discounts [4]. - The system offers different coupon amounts based on user profiles, targeting less active or price-sensitive users with larger discounts [4]. Market Impact and Strategy - The introduction of smart coupons has raised questions about its potential impact on Pinduoduo's advertising revenue and whether competitors like Alibaba and JD will follow suit [5]. - Smart coupons are viewed as a tool to enhance marketing efficiency, allowing for more precise targeting and potentially increasing user conversion rates [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - Pinduoduo is shifting its focus from profit maximization to increasing Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) in response to intense competition from Alibaba and JD, which have also engaged in aggressive pricing strategies [14][15]. - The company aims for a 40% overall growth target by 2025, with smart coupons expected to play a significant role in achieving this goal [15]. Challenges for Competitors - While smart coupons could help Pinduoduo gain market share, Alibaba may face difficulties in adopting this model due to its reliance on brand management and the potential conflict with brand partners [21]. - JD is unlikely to adopt smart coupons until it significantly increases its revenue, as it would require substantial investment in subsidies [21].