商业航天专家交流系列电话会 20251203 摘要 中国商业航天面临技术和成本挑战，每公斤卫星成本超 10 万元，700 公斤卫星售价近 4,000 万元，技术迭代快，难以批量生产，制约发展。 星网主要服务国家战略，规划 1,800 至 3,600 颗基础型卫星，2035 年 前完成 3 万多颗部署；创新院面向民用，但 2025 年招标计划因组织架 构调整和资金问题未能执行。 原信起步早，目标 2027 年前完成 1,296 颗基础型卫星部署，总体规划 约 1.5 万颗，但因主要供方单一和运力不足，2025 年仅发射 108 颗， 进展缓慢。 格思公司有新的招标规划，但执行力度和质量较差，已下发 108 颗卫星 合同完成情况不理想，火箭招标多次流标，后续可能增补招标 108 或 256 颗卫星。 朱雀 3 号火箭成功对商业航天是鼓舞，但技术稳定性需验证，预计 2026 年可能获订单，批量生产需两三年，原信公司因朱雀 2 号失败损 失惨重，不会轻易冒险。 Q&A 明年（2026 年）我国整体的航天发射计划是怎样的？ 明年（2026 年），我国在商业航天领域的发射任务量预计不会很大。以星网 项目为例，目前仍处于实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful testing of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket's first stage by Chinese private aerospace company Landspace marks a strategic step for China in catching up with SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, with the first flight and recovery planned for November [1] Group 1: Industry Context - Elon Musk acknowledged that excluding SpaceX, China's annual rocket launch numbers far exceed those of the United States, highlighting the limited success of American aerospace companies in producing competitive launch service providers [3] - The American aerospace industry has largely been dominated by SpaceX, with other companies like Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance struggling to achieve significant advancements, particularly in reusable technology [3][4] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The global satellite internet market presents significant opportunities, as many countries lack advanced fiber optic networks, making low-orbit satellite internet services valuable [6] - Chinese companies are actively developing two major satellite constellations, Xingwang and Qianfan, to compete in the satellite internet space, with production capacities of over 200 satellites annually for Xingwang and an average of one satellite per day for Qianfan, aiming for 600 satellites by 2026 [7][9] Group 3: Cost and Operational Efficiency - The significance of reusable rockets lies in their ability to drastically reduce launch costs, as demonstrated by SpaceX's Falcon 9, which lowered the cost per launch from $67 million to $28 million [9] - Achieving reusable rocket technology could lead to a dramatic decrease in China's launch service prices, facilitating rapid deployment of satellite constellations and providing competitive pricing for domestic and international clients [9] Group 4: Future Prospects - The potential for achieving flight-like operations in the rocket industry could be accelerated if multiple commercial rocket companies succeed in reusable technology, potentially allowing China to realize its goal of regularized launches by 2030 instead of 2045 [10][12] - This advancement would enable China's satellite constellations to compete effectively with SpaceX's Starlink and position China as a leading provider of aerospace services globally [12]